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Consideration of Air Quality/Climate Linkages

for Analyses

Jason Samenow and Ben DeAngeloOctober 24, 2004

Climate Analysis BranchClimate Change Division

U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs

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Climate Program Linkages

Integrated Assessment Models

Methane reduction

Role of Black Carbon/Organic Carbon Emissions

Land Use Change and Forestry

Integrated Environmental Strategies

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Integrated Assessment Considerations

• Integrated Assessment Models– Tools for coupling climate and economic

systems to determine optimal policies– We participate in and co-chair Energy

Modeling Forum (EMF)– New focus on multi-gas approach– Air Quality has only been integrated into

models in rudimentary manner (SO2, some trop ozone)

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CO2 Futures

Global CO2 (GtC) in Reference Scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

AMIGA

CICERO

EDGE

GEMINI-E3

GRAPE

IMAGE

IPAC

MERGE

MESSAGE

MiniCAM

SGM

A1 (AIM)

A2 (ASF)

B1 (IMAGE)

B2 (IMAGE)

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Methane Futures

Global Methane (BMTCE) in Reference Scenario

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

AMIGA

CICERO

EDGE

GEMINI-E3

GRAPE

IMAGE

IPAC

MERGE

MESSAGE

MiniCAM

SGM

A1 (AIM)

A2 (ASF)

B1 (IMAGE)

B2 (MESSAGE)

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EPA’s Voluntary Methane Programs

• OAP runs voluntary programs to reduce methane emissions– AgStar– Coalbed Methane Outreach Program– Landfill Methane Outreach Program– Natural Gas STAR– Methane to Markets

• Methane emissions have been reduced 5% below 1990 levels

• Methane (CH4) emission controls are “a powerful lever for reducing both global warming and air pollution via decreases in background tropospheric ozone” (Fiore et al., 2002)

7Courtesy John Reilly, MIT

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EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION POLICIES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE

EFFECTS PARTIALLY CANCEL EACH OTHER

LOWER OZONE LESS WARMING & SEA LEVEL RISE

LOWER SOX AEROSOL MORE WARMING & SEA LEVEL RISE

LOWER OH LONGER CH4 LIFETIME

LARGER GWP

POTENTIALLY MORE WARMING & SEA RISE

MORE CARBON UPTAKE LESS WARMING & SEA RISE

LOWER BLACK CARBON (BC) ???

Courtesy John Reilly, MIT

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Black/Organic Carbon Considerations

• How important is BC/OC relative to other GHGs for climate?

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BC/OC Considerations

• How well can we measure BC/OC?– Inventories exist but uncertainties remain large

• Mitigation options– Integrated assessment may help ID synergies

and tradeoffs with GHG mitigation

• Climate or Air Quality Goal?– Remains unclear how and to what extent BC/OC

should be treated within a climate policy context

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LUCF Considerations

• We are conducting and supporting analyses on carbon sequestration and GHG mitigation options in forestry and agriculture – domestically and internationally

• Key NEW question: How will climate change and air pollution over time affect trees and crops, and hence, potential greenhouse gas mitigation?

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IAM Challenges

• Continue refining science of climate change/air quality linkages and incorporate into models

• Include plausible air quality policies as they affect long-term GHG emissions scenarios

• Conduct a new comprehensive, multi-gas policy assessment to improve the understanding of the effects of including non-CO2 GHGs (NCGGs) and sinks (terrestrial sequestration) into short- and long-term mitigation policies.

• Identify synergies/trade-offs with GHG and air pollutant mitigation strategies

How can ICAP results feed into Integrated Assessment Modeling?

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Integrated Environmental Strategies

• Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing co-benefits program.

• Partners local teams in developing countries with experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, NREL).

• Flexible, to address local air quality and public health needs of stakeholders in cities.

• Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., air-quality improvement and greenhouse-gas mitigation) strategies and co-benefits.

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IES Goals• Identify strategies that improve local air quality

while meeting public health, economic development, and GHG mitigation objectives.

• Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of local and global co-benefits of policies and technologies.

• Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity for co-benefits analysis

• Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits analysis.

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IES: Key questions

• What are the health impacts of changes in policies that impact air quality? What is the economic value of these health impacts?

• What are the GHG emissions reductions associated with these measures?

• How can an integrated approach benefit decision-making?

• How can co-benefits be quantified to be meaningful?

• How can integrated analysis benefit existing decision-making processes?

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Contacts• Black Carbon

– Ben DeAngelo, deangelo.ben@epa.gov, 202-343-9107

• Integrated Assessment Modeling– Steve Rose, rose.steven@epa.gov, 202-343-9553– Francisco Delachesnaye, Acting Branch Chief,

delachesnaye.francisco@epa.gov, 202-343-9010

• Methane Voluntary Programs– Paul Gunning, gunning.paul@epa.gov, 202-343-9736

• Carbon Sequestration– Ken Andrasko, andrasko.ken@epa.gov, 202-343-9281

and Ben DeAngelo

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Contacts

• Integrated Environmental Strategies– Kong Chiu, chiu.kong@epa.gov, 202-343-9309

• Climate Change Science Issues– Jason Samenow, samenow.jason@epa.gov,

202-343-9327

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Resources

• Methane voluntary programswww.epa.gov/methane

• GHG emissions inventorywww.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions

Carbon sequestration website

www.epa.gov/sequestration