11

DisseminationDissemination

Michael J. LevinMichael J. LevinHarvard Center for Harvard Center for

Population and Development StudiesPopulation and Development StudiesMichael.levin@yahoo.comMichael.levin@yahoo.com

22

Dissemination topicsDissemination topics

I.I. FlowFlow

II.II. TypesTypes

III.III. MediaMedia

33

I.Flow of DisseminationI.Flow of Dissemination

• First releases – within one month of First releases – within one month of the censusthe census

• First level geography tablesFirst level geography tables• Detailed tables – geographyDetailed tables – geography• Detailed tables – cross-tabulationsDetailed tables – cross-tabulations• First analytical reportFirst analytical report• Subsequent analytical reportsSubsequent analytical reports• PUMSPUMS

44

II. Types of DisseminationII. Types of Dissemination

1.1. Frequencies (alone and by geography)Frequencies (alone and by geography)

2.2. First-level cross-tabulationsFirst-level cross-tabulations

3.3. Detailed cross-tabulationsDetailed cross-tabulations

4.4. Graphs *Graphs *

5.5. Maps *Maps *

6.6. Indicators *Indicators *

7.7. Results of direct and indirect techniques *Results of direct and indirect techniques *

8.8. Other evaluationOther evaluation

55

II-4. Population PyramidII-4. Population PyramidSouthern Sudan: 20081. Population by Age and Sex

Population

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

7000000

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95+

Male Female

66

Southern Sudan: 1983 and 2008Population by Age and Sex

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1983.00 2008.00

Female

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95+Male

II-4. Population Pyramid – two II-4. Population Pyramid – two censusescensuses

77

II-4. Single Year of AgeII-4. Single Year of AgeSouthern Sudan: 2008

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Male Female

3. Population by Sex

88

II-5. MapsII-5. Maps

Legend6,334 to 18,46618,467 to 26,49926,500 to 29,358

Test Variable - Sudan

99

II-6. Indicators: Age II-6. Indicators: Age ReportingReporting

B. Measures of Digit Preference----------- ---- ------------- ------------- ---------------Method and terminal digit Male Female Both sexes----------- ---- ------------- ------------- ---------------WHIPPLE METHOD (23-62)

Index 1.75 1.77 1.76

MYERS METHOD

Index * 32.1 32.9 32.5

0 9.4 10.3 9.81 -4.3 -4.4 -4.32 -0.1 -0.2 -0.23 -3.2 -3.5 -3.44 -2.6 -2.5 -2.55 4.1 3.3 3.76 -1.4 -1.8 -1.67 -2.0 -2.1 -2.18 2.6 2.9 2.89 -2.4 -1.9 -2.1

Southern Sudan: 2008

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Male Female

4. Myers Preference by Digit

1010

II-7. Own Children TFR II-7. Own Children TFR estimates using Kenya estimates using Kenya Censuses: 1955-99Censuses: 1955-99

Figure 1. Own children estimates of TFR for Kenya based on the 1969, 1979, 1989, and 1999 Censuses

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

TFR

Census 1979 Census 1989 Census 1969 Census 1999

1111

II-7. TFRs by Wealth Quintiles, II-7. TFRs by Wealth Quintiles, Kenya: 1975 to 1999Kenya: 1975 to 1999

1212

II-7. TFR for Kenya, Tanzania II-7. TFR for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda: 1985 to 2002and Uganda: 1985 to 2002

Figure… Own children estimates of TFR for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Date

TF

R

KE 1999 TZ 2002 UG 2002

1313

II-7. TFR for Poorest, Kenya, II-7. TFR for Poorest, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda: 1985 to Tanzania and Uganda: 1985 to 20022002

Estimates of TFR for Kenya (1999), Uganda (2002), and Tanzania (2002) for Quintiles

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Date

TF

R

K99 Q12 TZ02 Q12 UG02 Q12

1414

II-7. ASFRs for 5 year periods, II-7. ASFRs for 5 year periods, Kenya: 1985-89 to 1995-99Kenya: 1985-89 to 1995-99

Own children estimates of trends in fertility patterns for Kenyan women based on 1999 Census

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

Age group

Fert

ility

rate

1995-99 0.077 0.149 0.210 0.193 0.133 0.071 0.029

1990-94 0.084 0.238 0.264 0.215 0.153 0.085 0.035

1985-89 0.171 0.351 0.347 0.290 0.202 0.114 0.044

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

1515

III. Media of disseminationIII. Media of dissemination

1.1. PaperPaper

2.2. CD/DVD/Flash drivesCD/DVD/Flash drives

3.3. Internet – already prepared tablesInternet – already prepared tables

4.4. Internet – user developed tables on Internet – user developed tables on demanddemand

5.5. Public Use Microdata Sets (PUMS)Public Use Microdata Sets (PUMS)

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III-1. PaperIII-1. Paper

• Traditional method – still importantTraditional method – still important• But movement is away from paper to But movement is away from paper to

electronic mediaelectronic media• Summary tablesSummary tables• Basic tables – geography for variablesBasic tables – geography for variables• Basic tables – crosstabs for two or more Basic tables – crosstabs for two or more

variablesvariables• Graphs, maps, other analytical toolsGraphs, maps, other analytical tools• Detailed tables at low levels of geographyDetailed tables at low levels of geography• Detailed tables for small groupsDetailed tables for small groups

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III-2. Compact disk/DVD/flash III-2. Compact disk/DVD/flash drivesdrives• For large tables For large tables

• For low levels of geographyFor low levels of geography

• For selected variables – religion and For selected variables – religion and ethnicityethnicity

• For small groups – sensitivity issuesFor small groups – sensitivity issues

• Direct dissemination -- watch Direct dissemination -- watch confidentialityconfidentiality

• Electronic media in office for use on Electronic media in office for use on requestrequest

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III-3. Internet disseminationIII-3. Internet dissemination

• Tables downloaded directly from the Tables downloaded directly from the webweb

• Other forms of presentation stored – Other forms of presentation stored – pyramids, graphs, maps, etcpyramids, graphs, maps, etc

• Note: importance of media fitting on Note: importance of media fitting on an A4 pagean A4 page

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III-4. Internet III-4. Internet crosstabulationscrosstabulations• Model is US Census Bureau’s American Model is US Census Bureau’s American

FactfinderFactfinder• Computer makes takes described by the Computer makes takes described by the

user – (1) geographic hierarchy, (2) user – (1) geographic hierarchy, (2) columns, and (3) rowscolumns, and (3) rows

• Limited to those items availableLimited to those items available• Confidentiality is maintainedConfidentiality is maintained• User cannot access micro-dataUser cannot access micro-data• Next step: open use of micro-data onlineNext step: open use of micro-data online

2020

III-5. Public Use Micro-data III-5. Public Use Micro-data Samples (PUMS)Samples (PUMS)

• Provides users opportunity to develop own Provides users opportunity to develop own tablestables

• Provides users opportunity for statistical Provides users opportunity for statistical analysis analysis

• Provides users opportunity to test hypothesesProvides users opportunity to test hypotheses• Does not provide detail for small groups and Does not provide detail for small groups and

small areassmall areas• Consider size of one or more PUMS – 1 %, 5 Consider size of one or more PUMS – 1 %, 5

%, 10 % or more%, 10 % or more• Consider confidentialityConsider confidentiality

2121

III-5. Disclosure Controls Example: III-5. Disclosure Controls Example: Saint Lucia, 1991 CensusSaint Lucia, 1991 Census1.1. Restrict access to samples: 10% Restrict access to samples: 10% (13,405 persons)(13,405 persons)

2.2. Limit geographical detail (n<2,000): suppress Limit geographical detail (n<2,000): suppress region, district, town, settlement, enumeration region, district, town, settlement, enumeration district, school identification; retain urban-ruraldistrict, school identification; retain urban-rural

3.3. Recode sparse categories (n<25)Recode sparse categories (n<25) “other”. “other”.» Type of dwelling: suppress townhouse, barracksType of dwelling: suppress townhouse, barracks» Land occupation: suppress sharecropLand occupation: suppress sharecrop» And othersAnd others» Ethnic origin: suppress Chinese, Portuguese, Syrian-Ethnic origin: suppress Chinese, Portuguese, Syrian-

LebaneseLebanese» Religion: suppress 6 categoriesReligion: suppress 6 categories» School, work mode of transport: bicycleSchool, work mode of transport: bicycle» Occupation, industry, training code: reduce from 4 Occupation, industry, training code: reduce from 4

digits to 1/2/3digits to 1/2/3» And others And others

2222

III-5. Technical Disclosure Controls Example: III-5. Technical Disclosure Controls Example: Saint Lucia, 1991Saint Lucia, 19914.4. Top-bottom codeTop-bottom code

» Number of rooms: 10+Number of rooms: 10+» Number of radios: 4+Number of radios: 4+» Age: 81+Age: 81+» Age at first child: <= 14Age at first child: <= 14» And othersAnd others

5.5. Suppress: Suppress: » date of birth, precise place of birth, type of work wanteddate of birth, precise place of birth, type of work wanted

6.6. Migration: timing/place not identified in detail Migration: timing/place not identified in detail » Country last lived: suppress 37 categoriesCountry last lived: suppress 37 categories» Year of immigration: <1948Year of immigration: <1948

7.7. Identify place of residence by major civil division Identify place of residence by major civil division (pop>20k, 60k, 100k, 250k, 1 million—i.e., national (pop>20k, 60k, 100k, 250k, 1 million—i.e., national convention)convention)

» all suppressedall suppressed8.8. Suppress any sensitive variable requested by NSI: Suppress any sensitive variable requested by NSI:

» none (as yet) none (as yet)

2323

III-5. Implementing IPUMS technical III-5. Implementing IPUMS technical protocols using CSPro – Designprotocols using CSPro – Design

if DWELL = 4 or DWELL = 7 let DWELL = 8 endifif LAND = 5 let LAND = 8 endifif OWNER = 2 or OWNER = 5 let OWNER = 7 endifif ROOF = 3:7 let ROOF = 8 endifif WALL = 4:7 let WALL = 8 endifif WATER = 6 let WATER = 7 endifif LIGHT = 1 let LIGHT = 4 endif

. Top-Bottom codingif ROOMS > 10 let ROOMS = 10 endifif BEDR > 7 let BEDR = 7 endifif RADIOS > 4 let RADIOS = 4 endifif TV > 3 let TV = 3 endifif NBEMIG > 2 let NBEMIG = 2 endif

2424

III-5. Design – Some Pop III-5. Design – Some Pop ItemsItems

if RACE = 4:6 let RACE = 9 endifif RELIG = 3,6,7,9,11,13,14 let RELIG = 16 endif. Migration variablesif BTHPL = 3,9,15,27,38,41,100else let BTHPL = 99 endifif CNLVD = 3,9,15,27,38,41,100else let CNLVD = 99 endifif CNTRY = 3,9,15,27,38,41,100else let CNTRY = 99 endifif RESCN = 3,9,15,27,38,41,100else let RESCN = 99 endif

2525

III-5. Demonstration of Concept:III-5. Demonstration of Concept:

Source: Unpublished data, St. Lucia Statistics

22.120.521.321.720.521.1Median

1,0505701,6201,0956291,72480 _ 84 years

8806901,5708577551,61275 _ 79 years

1,4301,0702,5001,2661,0482,31470 _ 74 years

1,6501,4603,1101,7171,3243,04165 _ 69 years

1,6901,4503,1401,6781,4023,08060 _ 64 years

1,9101,3503,2601,7961,4733,26955 _ 59 years

2,2701,8804,1502,0141,7013,71550 _ 54 years

2,2002,3304,5302,3672,3114,67845 _ 49 years

2,9702,8205,7902,9062,7195,62540 _ 44 years

3,9303,3707,3003,6423,4197,06135 _ 39 years

4,7604,3709,1304,7844,2098,99330 _ 34 years

5,9705,45011,4205,9235,57911,50225 _ 29 years

6,6906,36013,0506,5796,37512,95420 _ 24 years

7,5207,46014,9807,4777,29114,76815 _ 19 years

7,4507,61015,0607,9778,06816,04510 _ 14 years

9,0608,87017,9308,6778,57317,2505 _ 9 years

7,6907,94015,6307,9087,76915,6770 _ 4 years

69,12065,050134,17068,66364,645133,308Total

femalemaleTotalfemalemaleTotalAge Group

SampleCensus

Table 1. Comparison of Age and Sex Distributions, Census and Sample: St. Lucia, 1991

Source: Unpublished data, St. Lucia Statistics

22.120.521.321.720.521.1Median

1,0505701,6201,0956291,72480 _ 84 years

8806901,5708577551,61275 _ 79 years

1,4301,0702,5001,2661,0482,31470 _ 74 years

1,6501,4603,1101,7171,3243,04165 _ 69 years

1,6901,4503,1401,6781,4023,08060 _ 64 years

1,9101,3503,2601,7961,4733,26955 _ 59 years

2,2701,8804,1502,0141,7013,71550 _ 54 years

2,2002,3304,5302,3672,3114,67845 _ 49 years

2,9702,8205,7902,9062,7195,62540 _ 44 years

3,9303,3707,3003,6423,4197,06135 _ 39 years

4,7604,3709,1304,7844,2098,99330 _ 34 years

5,9705,45011,4205,9235,57911,50225 _ 29 years

6,6906,36013,0506,5796,37512,95420 _ 24 years

7,5207,46014,9807,4777,29114,76815 _ 19 years

7,4507,61015,0607,9778,06816,04510 _ 14 years

9,0608,87017,9308,6778,57317,2505 _ 9 years

7,6907,94015,6307,9087,76915,6770 _ 4 years

69,12065,050134,17068,66364,645133,308Total

femalemaleTotalfemalemaleTotalAge Group

SampleCensus

Table 1. Comparison of Age and Sex Distributions, Census and Sample: St. Lucia, 1991