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Dr. Enrique Ortega RodríguezUnicamp, Campinas, SP, Brazil

E-mail: <ortega@fea.unicamp.br>

New Emergy indices for a Prosperous Way Down

SIXTH BIENNIAL EMERGY RESEARCH CONFERENCE

December 14-16, University of Florida, Gainesville, 2009

Version 17 (15/01/10)

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It is not Capitalism, because this kind of system is based on “continuous growth”, “unconscious consumption” and do not have ethical values.

What’s a Prosperous Way Down (PWD)?

It is a sustainable interaction between the human beings and the environment

A PWD implies in: new social concerns and new commitments with nature (Biosphere and Ecosystems)

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1. To measure the world's renewable support capacity and to compare it with the increased support capacity obtained by using non-renewables.

Prosperous Way Down 5 main challenges:

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2. To forecast the population reduction during capitalism decline considering the adjustment to scarce resources offered by degraded ecosystems and a damaged biosphere

5Time

Change from anaerobic to aerobic atmosphere.Thermo regulated system

- 10 000

Sustainable Development

0 - 4 billions years

Biodiversity, C immobilization

1500

2000 2100

Transition

Ecosystems recovery

Human growth and other species depletion without the use of fossil fuel

Industrial growth

Fair population adjustment

options

Business as usual (more growth)

Keep the system as it is now (without growth)

Resilience and Sustainability recovery through a Prosperous Way Down

homeostasis

extinction

Change of production-consumption model

3. To understand the human interaction with biosphere throughout history and study options for future:

collapse

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Hunters and gatherers

Agrarian Economy

Industrial revolution

Population explosion

Global Information

storm

EnvironmentLocal

available resources

Agriculture Industry Villages and cities Information

Fuels and minerals

The geographic space occupationhas changed through human history

Ecological rural communities (Eco-units)

Eco-units are agro-ecological systems with: - renewable net energy to support lower size cities- recycling loops from the cities to farms- preserved areas of native vegetation - new social relationships- integrated production

If the future could be based on a Prosperous Way Down

Figure adapted from the bookA Prosperous Way Downby H.T. Odum & E.C. Odum (2001)

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4. Understanding risks and proposing solutions. Restrain Global Warming(not using all C deposits)

Preserve Global Biodiversity(avoid species extinction)

Take care of allthe components in global society(eco-communities)

Water percolation, C sequester, Pollination, Biological control, Soil retention, Low

temperature and biodiversity maintenance

Heavy metals absorption, toxic chemicals transformation, C capture

from petrochemicals

A2A1

A3

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5. Finally, to propose new models for ecological rural production systems

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Food production can be made in:

Agro-ecological systems based on local renewable resources and local markets;

Agro-chemical systems based on external non renewable resources and external markets.

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Ecological corn production based on local renewables varies from 500 to 5000 kg/ha/year,

in parallel with the production of a great diversity of plants and animals.

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The agro-chemical systems productivity for corn varies from 2000 to 12 000 kg/ha/year. It represents a production increase of 2 to 3 times compared to ecological method!

Agro-chemical farms have a high environmental and social impact, and very low sustainability.

But these systems destroy native vegetation, biodiversity and ecosystem functions; they pollute, throw away a lot of small farmers and rural workers, concentrate income and depend on massive use of expensive imported chemicals.

They have high profit because their negative externalities are not charged! This is an important hidden fact that makes difference.

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Sustainable rural production depends on:

1. Solar energy (sun, wind, rain);

2. Water basin resources and environmental services (water, humus, sediments, regional biodiversity);

3. Soil minerals mobilized by local soil biota;

4. Nitrogen fixed by bacteria;

5. Environmental services derived from the maintenance of local biodiversity;

6. Animal and direct human work, infra-structure, organization and ecological culture.

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Use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and intensive mechanization (oil dependency);

Non-renewable changes in agriculture:

Establishment of expensive infra-structure;

Use of electricity, fuels;

Diverse chemical products (lime, plastics);

Seeds produced out of the region;

Animal feed prepared from subsidized grains;

Animal waste in excess.

Deforestation (clear cutting) and social exclusion;

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Sustainable agriculture system

R1

NR

Renewable assets

AgricultureClean water courses

Farm products

FR

Degraded energy

Environmental services

Nature´s renewable inputs that depend on local biodiversity existence Internal stocks

changes

OUTPUTR2

Renewable energy

INPUTS

NN

Human assets(up to a limit)

Renewable feedback from Human Economy

WT

Wastes

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Non-sustainable agriculture system including negative externalities

R1

NR

Natural Assets

FN

AgricultureTreated water courses

Agricultural productsDegraded energy

Environmental services after recovery

Feedback from external human economy(non-renewable)

Internal stocks

OUTPUT

C captured from gas emission

Restored Natural and Social Assets

Renewable Energy

INPUTS

NN

Human Assets Social welfare

WT

Wastes

FNFR

ADDITIONAL INPUTSNegative externalities care demands additional inputs that means increased costs!

R2

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An aggregated flows diagram should include the negative externalities care as well as the environmental services production

R

N

AgricultureInternal stocklosses

Agricultural products

F

Environmental services

INPUT

Internal stocks

OUTPUTI = R + N

M = MR + MNY = I + F

E = sum (Ei)

E = energy of products

Untreated flows(high impact)

R

Waste and contaminants

Treatments and special

care

Treated flows (low impact)

Gas emissions

F = M + S

S = SR + SN

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R

N

Agriculture

Internal stocklosses

Agriculture products

F

Environmental services

INPUT

Internal stocks

OUTPUT

I = R + NM = MR + MN

Y = I + F

E = sum (Ei)E = energy of products

Untreated flows(high impact)

R

Wastes and contaminants

Treated flows (low impact)

Gas emissions

F = M + S

S = SR + SN

Additional feedbackNative

vegetationR

Treatments & special care

A2

A1

A3

A2: Area to provide local and regional environmental services;

A1: Area for food, fiber, cattle and energy production;

A3: Area for social and environmental impact absorption.

A PWD farm demands an Ecological Engineering project:

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When the farms incorporate non renewables, the natural stocks are destroyed and the environmental services they produce are reduced.

RN

F

RRN

F

RR

N

F

RR

N

F

R

N

F

R

“Ancient” agro-ecological system

“Modern” agro-chemical system

Super intensified agro-chemical system

Low productivity system after erosion and fertility loss

Recovered agro-ecological system

Ecological transition

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R1

R2

R3

N

S

M

Negative externalities care demand additional services.

Non-renewables

Renewables

Agriculture becomes non-sustainable!

The emergy analysis of agriculture reveals the magnitude of input change in recent years and also a crisis in many places

Crisis

X=S’

Chemicals

Time

Aggregated emergy flows

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Environmental services

Natural stock

Waste

Emissions

Production (kg/ha/year)

Investment

Income concentration

Input price

Profit per hectare

Product price Profit margin

Social & climatic problems

Contaminants

CrisisOUTPUT ISSUES

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RN

F

Renewables / Total resources

Ren = renewability = ----RY

Inverse value of the efficiency

Tr = transformity = ----YE

Economy resources / Nature

EIR = investment ratio = ----FI

RN

F

R

N

F

R

FN

PX

Degraded system without fertility

Recovered agro- ecological system

Renewable resources

Products

Externalities

Natural stocks

Aggregated emergy flows

Emergy Indices

Economy Feedback

Original agro-ecological system

Agro-chemicalsystem

R

N

F

Changes along time

Predictions about emergy flows

Predictions about aggregated emergy flows

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Suggestions for Public Policy:

It should be necessary to learn how to measure environmental services (water percolation, carbon capture, genetic vigor maintenance, biologic control, ecological culture) and the environmental impacts care (pollution, soil erosion, cost of urban services for marginalized population, etc.)

R

N

Agriculture

Internal stocklosses

Agriculture products

F

Environmental services

INPUT

Internal stocks

OUTPUT

I = R + NM = MR + MN

Y = I + F

E = sum (Ei)E = energy of products

Untreated flows(high impact)

R

Wastes and contaminants

Treated flows (low impact)

Gas emissions

F = M + S

S = SR + SN

Additional feedbackNative

vegetationR

Treatments & special care

Payment of due environmental servicesCharge for negative externalities

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Non RenewableSupport

About the proper emergy indices (1)

NRp

N

p

R

p

TTE

Y

E

Y

E

YTr

321 RRRR

NR MMM NR SSS

NR YYY

F should include negative externalities, as additional S and M

F

N

F

R

F

NRF

F

YEYR

1

F

RRS

F

NNS

NR FFF

R should consider all the renewable flows

Tr should be divided into renewable and non renewable terms

Each M and S flow has a renewable fraction

In EYR, the terms N/F and R/F have oppose effects, then this indicator must be divided:

Direct, biodiversity dependent, regional flows

NSRSEYR 1

RenewableSupport

Therefore, F, Y and Tr also have a renewable fraction

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Y

SMR

Y

RRen RRi

N

Ri

FN

FRELR

renewablesnon

renewables

subsidiessales

esenv.servicproducts

received Y

producedY

EER

NR

SM

I

FEIR

R

SM

R

FEIR

YY

CWR

flowsrecycleinternal

The proper emergy indices (2)

Renewability should consider all renewables including MR and SR

ELR should consider

FR and FN

EER should Include: environmental services and subsidies

A new definition of EIR is possible: without N support

Recycling is very important in Agroecology there must be and indicator for this

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The End of OilActual and Projected Oil Production

Increasing:N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER

Increasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR

Decreasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR

Decreasing:N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER

Individualism, capitalismcompetition & exclusion

Community solutions

Emergy indices

Renewable resources

The use of R/F and N/F explains the trends better than EYR

The same can be said about TrN and TrR

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CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

2 p

pm

6 years?

There must be an inversion in the trend!

How?

Critical value

Safe level

The book A Prosperous Way Downsuggests a production-consumption model with social, ecological, cultural and political care. It could be based on eco-units for ecological ruralization (Folke Gunther)

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Native vegetation

Calves or young cows

Ethanol micro-distillery, local and regional agroindustry .

Minerals

People

Materialsand energy (external economy)

Formicide

External labor hand

Services (external economy)

Nitrogen from the

air

Sun, wind, rain

Water, soil, biodiversity,

micro-climate

Individual parcel

Grass lands, Grain lands, Bush lands

Eucaliptus

Sugar cane

Cattle

Internal consumption

Vinasse

Ashes

Products and services from native forests

Products from family parcel

Beef cattle (alive)

Ethanol (94%)

Fermented manure

Logs

(or dairy products)

ECO-UNIT: an integrated system for food, energy and environmental services

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Conclusionsa) For a PWD it will be necessary to adopt high

renewability production & consumption systems; therefore, it is convenient to study the prototypes that exist around the world.

b)These studies should include several frameworks: administrative, political, and psychological.

c)The study should use more complete energy flow diagrams and the proper emergy indices.

d)Its diagnosis should promote an open and broad discussion about the transition to sustainable societies all over the world, promoted by social movements, academy and governing authorities.

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Thanks for your attention!

Empower the peopleMy suggestion is not to

omit

include all negative externalities

and environmental services

the resilience threats

good information. Discover how to