1 end-user evaluation of the nc-cera storm surge visualization tool jessica losego institute for the...
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End-User Evaluation of the NC-CERA Storm Surge Visualization Tool
Jessica LosegoInstitute for the Environment
University of North Carolina at Chapel HillCenter Collaborators: Carola Kaiser, Jason Fleming, Brian
Blanton
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Project Overview• Goals of evaluation – Introduce end users to NC-CERA– Demo NC-CERA and gather initial feedback to
make improvements, more useful• EM’s main job during an event: explain surge,
other forecast information to county officials– EMs need easy-to-understand info that fits into
their operational process
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Project Relevance
• Puts Center research into the hands of real-world end users
• Uses end user feedback to make improvements
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Technical Approach• Established during Weather for EM Decision Support
project (WxEM)• Four step iterative process
1. Baseline2. Current practices & gaps3. Prototype4. Validation
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Establish Baseline and Current Practices• End Users– Interviewed 14 county EMs
representing 13 counties• Made aware of NC-CERA
and county visits– State EM– FEMA Region IV– NWS
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• Collection methods– Mix of 1-on-1 and group semi-structured
interviews– Short survey
• What does surge mean to you and your county?
• Demo and feedback on NC-CERA
Establish Baseline and Current Practices
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Progress to Date: Preliminary Results• Range of feelings on current surge information – Desperate for surge information– “Embarrassed” that he/she isn’t confident in
information he/she has and passes along– Low priority for county b/c surge events rare– Fairly comfortable finding information and applying
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• Need best guess of surge information 72 hr before landfall– Major operational decision point
for evacuation: onset time of tropical storm force winds
• Multiple ways EMs get surge information– Briefings from local NWS– HURRTRAK – NHC MOM/MEOW products
Preliminary Results
NWS Briefing Example
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Preliminary Results: NC-CERA
• Fits operational time scale of needing surge information 72 hr before landfall
• Visually appealing• Provides wave information• Rainfall and river flooding info needs to be
linked to surge
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• Overlay surge info with infrastructure layers
• Mixed on inundation above MSL vs. ground level– Feel that elected officials
and public will be confused either way
Preliminary Results: NC-CERA
Example: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Baltimore District.
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Proposed Modifications to NC-CERA• Observed rainfall data layer– Allows EM to get sense of rainfall– Most EMs do not know how to get this info
NC State Climate Office Obs Feed
NWS Radar Rainfall Estimates
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• Ability to create a one page text summary of important forecast parameters– NWS Wilmington/WxEM
prototype
Proposed Modifications to NC-CERA
WINDSTROPICAL STORM FORCE BEGIN…..1400 EDT FRI 8/24/11TROPICAL STORM FORCE END……..1500 EDT SAT 8/27/11HURRICANE BEGIN…………………...0100 EDT SAT 8/27/11HURRICANE END……………………...0900 EDT SAT 8/27/11
COASTAL FLOODINGSTORM SURGE…………..6 FTSTORM TIDE…………….7.5 FT
• PEAK WINDS• STORM TOTAL RAINFALL• SURF• WIND,TORNADO,INLAND FLOOD, AND COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT• TIDE INFO
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• Variations– Max wind speed – Veer left and right– Maximum radius
• EMs have a sense of track/intensity errors
• Available for 2012 season
Modification to NC-CERA
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Products: Summary Report
• Summary report of initial EM feedback to NC-CERA development team– 6 preliminary findings– 8 suggested modifications
• Working now with development team to make modifications
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Products: Training• Training available– Goal: make EMs
comfortable using NC-CERA
– Instruction guide created to describe features
– Online or in person training after modifications
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Looking Forward – Rest of Year 5, Year 6• Work with development team to make proposed
modifications for next season• Visit with EMs again to demo, train• Continue to help with mobile version development• Find ways to better integrate NC-CERA data into
operational process– Integrated Coastal Hazards Tool
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Jessica LosegoUNC Institute for the Environment
This material is based upon work supported by the Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence, a US Department of Homeland Security Science and
Technology Center of Excellence under Award Number: 2008-ST-061-ND 0001.