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Evaluation of projections submitted in 2006 national plans under the National Emission Ceilings Directive (preliminary results)

Anne Wagner

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Progress towards emission ceilings

• Analysis [Member State projections, DTI assessment, GAINS comparison]

• NOx/ SO2/ NMVOC/ NH3

• Summary of key findings

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Analysis undertaken

• Member States’ own projected emissions in 2010 have been analysed and compared against emission ceilings

• A distance-to-target analysis has been undertaken to illustrate current progress to meeting emission ceilings

• A comparison has been undertaken of GAINS model emission projections (using national energy projections) for 2010 against Member States’ own projections

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Summary – progress to ceilings (22 MS aggregated)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

NH3 NMVOC NOx SO2

GAINS Estimate

With Measures

With Additional Measures

Gap/Excess

Target value

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ach

ieve

WM

Just

Mee

t

Mis

s

Ach

ieve

WM

Ach

ieve

WA

M

Just

Mee

t

Mis

s

Ach

ieve

WM

Ach

ieve

WA

M

Just

Mee

t

Mis

s

Ach

ieve

WM

Ach

ieve

WA

M

Just

Mee

t

Mis

s

NH3 NMVOC NOx SO2

Nu

mb

er o

f M

emb

er S

tate

s

Summary – progress to ceilings (22 MS aggregated)

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DTI indicator

DTI example – NOx

DTI indicator

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

kto

nn

es

NO

x

Current trend

Required trend

DTI indicator

NOx emission

ceiling

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NMVOC Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)NMVOC Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010

targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

MaltaLatvia

SlovakiaEstoniaSweden

UnitedNetherlands

CyprusCzech Republic

LithuaniaAustria

GermanyBelgium

IrelandFinland

SloveniaFrance

ItalyHungaryDenmarkPortugal

SpainPoland

-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) WM or WOM where no WM

WAM (where provided) GAINS (CL only)

8

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

EstoniaLatvia

LithuaniaCyprus

MaltaSlovakiaHungaryPortugal

Czech RepublicSlovenia

NetherlandsPoland

BelgiumSwedenFranceAustriaIreland

ItalyUnited Kingdom

FinlandDenmarkGermany

Spain

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) WM or WOM where no WM

WAM (where provided) GAINS (CL only)

NH3 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

9

SO2 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) & Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

58

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

LatviaLithuaniaHungaryDenmarkSwedenAustriaFinlandEstonia

SlovakiaGermany

United KingdomIreland

Czech RepublicNetherlands

FrancePoland

PortugalItaly

SloveniaBelgium

SpainCyprus

Malta

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) WM or WOM where no WM

WAM (where provided) GAINS (CL only)

10

NOx Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC) NOx Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010

targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

67

-60

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

EstoniaLithuania

LatviaSlovakia

CyprusHungaryFinland

Czech RepublicGermany

ItalyPoland

NetherlandsDenmarkSweden

United KingdomSlovenia

FrancePortugal

IrelandAustria

BelgiumMaltaSpain

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) WM or WOM where no WM

WAM (where provided) GAINS (CL only)

-62

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Summary – progress to ceilings(1)

• NMVOC emissions– MS projections: Denmark, France, Spain, Portugal project emission values

exceeding their target; France will meet their ceiling under WAM– DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of the 23 considered) on track to meet their

ceiling. Denmark, Spain, Portugal, and Poland are currently above their linear target path

– GAINS comparison: GAINS estimates estimates tends to be lower than Member States’ projections in most cases.

• NH3 emissions– MS projections: Germany and Spain will not meet their ammonia ceiling with

current policies and measures. Germany will meet their ceiling under WAM– DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of 23) are currently on track to meet their

emission ceiling. Finland, Denmark, Germany and Spain are currently above their linear target path,

– GAINS comparison: Germany predicts exceedance while GAINS suggests otherwise. Slovakia, Denmark and Belgium all predict no exceedance; GAINS suggests otherwise

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Summary – progress to ceilings(2)

• SO2 emissions– MS projections: Only Netherlands exceeds the emission ceiling in 2010 (even

under WAM)– DTI analysis: Spain, Malta and Cyprus are above their linear path– GAINS comparison: analysis suggests that WM projection for France exceeds

ceiling by over 30%

• NOx emissions– MS projections: 10 / 22 countries exceeding ceiling under WM; Germany, Malta

and Netherlands meet ceiling under WAM whereas Austria, Belgium, France exceed ceiling under WAM; Denmark, Italy, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden exceed ceiling under WM but do not provide WAM

– DTI analysis: more than half of MS (mainly EU15) above target path. Of EU15 only Italy, Germany and Finland on target

– GAINS comparison: estimates suggest that NOx ceilings may be even more difficult to meet than predicted