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INTRODUCTION TO DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT

METHODOLOGY AND BASIC CONCEPTS

Ricardo Zapata MartiUN ECLAC

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PURPOSES OF DISASTER VALUATION

– Serve as a means to mobilize external cooperation, assistance and loans

– Become a tool in policy formulation and post-disaster resource allocation

– Become a tool in long-term risk mitigation strategy setting

– Determine needs for reconstruction and mitigation

– Create historical record

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INFORMATION NEEDS OF DISASTER VALUATION

• Type:– Contribution of analysts in all sectors of the economy, as

well as social scientists– Geographically specific information– Final analysis must have both disaggregated and national

accounting versions• Sources:

– Ex ante data (pre-existing conditions, baselines)– Ex-post data (on the basis of numerous sources and

estimates from the affected population to economic, social and environmental effects. Can be both primary and second-hand.)

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DISASTERS: FRAMEWORK FOR VALUATION

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VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Vulnerability: Exposure to risks given the existing institutional and socioeconomic situation, manifested in:

• Marginalization, • Informal housing and economy,• Poverty,• Conditions in human settlements and the situation of

productive activities (primary, industrial, tertiary or services); their linkage internally and with the environment.

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PHASES IN A DISASTER

The disaster cycle:EMERGENCYREHABILITATION RECONSTRUCTIONPREVENTION AND MITIGATIONALERT AND PREPARATION

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THE DISASTER CYCLE AND THE DISASTER CYCLE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENTNEEDS ASSESSMENT

Emergency• In the immediate aftermath, priority is to save lives• Assessment efforts can begin: affected population, deaths, wounded, missing, direct damages to property and infrastructure, both public and private.

Rehabilitation• Priority is to return activities in the affected area to normal.

• Assessment of direct and indirect damages can begin, and an appraisal should be initiated of secondary effects.

Reconstruction• Priority is to implement mitigation so that pre-disaster vulnerability is not rebuilt. • Ex: construction projects modify pre-existing infrastructure and environmental conditions that led to damage by the disaster.

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CONNECTING THE CYCLE: THE LINK BETWEEN NEEDS

ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION

• Mitigation measures rely on specific information provided by the needs assessment

• Mitigation includes:– Allocating resources toward institutional, organizational

and structural measures– Training and organization, including at the community

level– Devising early warning systems

• Ownership of actions is fundamental to build trust

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TIMELINESS AND ACCURACY OF VALUATION

• “Window of need” = “Window of opportunity” • Timely response to needs

– Valuation must aim to reduce disaster impact and avoid reconstruction of preexisting vulnerability

– Assessment must be done in time to mobilize necessary internal and / or external resources to help

• Accuracy– Valuation must aim to ensure comparability and methodological

consistency, and– To be acceptable by technical standards– Judgment calls, assumptions and indirect calculations are necessary – The acceptable margin of error is 10-12%– Valuation must nonetheless be accurate enough to attract

investment and projects

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DISASTER VALUATION CONCEPTS

Direct damages• Impact on assets

– Infrastructure– Capital– Stocks

• Occur immediately during or after the phenomenon that caused the disaster

Indirect Damages• Effects on flows

– Production– Reduced income and

increased expenses

• Are perceived after the phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from weeks to months, till recuperation occurs

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SECTOR by SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGY

• Social Sectors– Housing– Health– Education, culture, sports

• Infrastructure– Transport and

communications– Energy– Water and sewerage

• Productive sectors – Goods: agriculture,

industry– Services: commerce,

tourism, etc.

• Global impact– On the environment– Gender perspective– Employment and social

conditions– Macroeconomic

assessment

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SOCIAL SECTOR

• Each social group’s degree of vulnerability to a natural disaster is different, and the severity of negative impact of natural disasters is as directly related to social inequalities and deprivations as to the natural hazard itself.

• A Social Impact Assessment (SIA) can be crucial in determining:- what mitigation is necessary- what mitigation alternatives exist- which mitigation strategies are most likely to work

• Accurate assessments of impacts should pay attention to gendered differentials and must be based on sound pre-existing socio-demographic data

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DYNAMIC GLOBAL EFFECTS

Macroeconomic effects:• Repercussions on the national or regional economy after

disaster• The duration of repercussions depending on the

characteristics and magnitude of disaster

• The effects are reflected by:– Gross Domestic Product growth– Performance of the external sector– Evolution of public finance– Increases of prices and inflation

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DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONInternal policies:

- Include vulnerability reduction as an objective of development plans alongside goals of:

• Competitive growth• Equitable development• Sustainable and sustained development• Social participation

External policies:

- Introduce risk management as part of the regional/international agenda, alongside:

• External competitive insertion• Benefiting from the globalization process• Inclusive regional insertion

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DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONSectoral components:

• Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including at the local level

• Contingency plans in key sectors, for example:

• Agriculture, cattle raising,

• Rural poverty,

• Energy and baselines

• Water and health

• Interconnected systems

• Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprise

• Focused plans for vulnerable groups, including for employment, food availability and nutrition

• Education to reduce vulnerability