2014.05.20_oecd-eclac-pse forum_frenkel
TRANSCRIPT
The Macroeconomics of Latin America
in the 2000s
Roberto Frenkel
Principal Research Associate at CEDES and Honorary
Professor, University of Buenos Aires
GDP growth rates for emerging and developing economies, advanced
economies and Latin American economies
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Latin America and the Caribbean
Average rate of growth of per capita GDP (SA and CA)
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
20001
-Ja
n-9
3
1-D
ec
-93
1-N
ov
-94
1-O
ct-
95
1-S
ep
-96
1-A
ug
-97
1-J
ul-
98
1-J
un
-99
1-M
ay
-00
1-A
pr-
01
1-M
ar-
02
1-F
eb
-03
1-J
an
-04
1-D
ec
-04
1-N
ov
-05
1-O
ct-
06
1-S
ep
-07
1-A
ug
-08
1-J
ul-
09
1-J
un
-10
EMBI/EMBIGLOBAL Bps EMBI/EMBI+ Bps
LATIN EMBI+ HY Bps
Sovereign risk premia in emerging markets and Latin America, and US
high yield bonds spread
(In basic points)
Current account result, average by subregion (% of GDP)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA CA
Foreign reserves as % of GDP average by subregions
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SA CA
Ratio of foreign debt to total exports, average by subregions
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA
Terms of trade indexes for South American countries (2000=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRASIL CHILE COLOMBIA ECUADOR PARAGUAY PERÚ URUGUAY VENEZUELA
Terms of trade indexes for Central America and Mexico (2000=100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
COSTA RICA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONDURAS MÉXICO NICARAGUA PANAMÁ
Primary fiscal results as percentage of GDP by subregions (non-financial
public sector, average)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA
Ratio of the public to GDP (average by subregion, in %)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SA CA
Average annual rates of inflation in SA and CA countries (CPI)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA Ca
Average unemployment rates in SA and CA countries (% of the active
population)
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA CA
Average unemployment rates (% of the active population) and proverty
incidence (%of the population) in SA countries
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
unemployment poverty
Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar, South America
(2000=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Perú Uruguay Venezuela
Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar, Central America and
Mexico (2000=100)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México Nicaragua Panamá República Dominicana
Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar. 90s mìnimum, average 2002-08 and 2013
(100=2000)
199519951995
1993
19971997
1996
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
Brasil Chile Colombia México Perú Uruguay Argentina
90s mìnimum Average 2002-08 2013
Unit labor cost in constant us$. Selected countries
(100=2000)
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
Uruguay Argentina México
Unit labor cost in constant us$. 90s maximun, 2002-2008 average and 2012
(100=2000)
1997
1997 1997
1994
19951995
1994
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay Argentina México
90s Maximum Average 2002-2008 2012
ULC% 2002 - 2012 increase: descomposition in explanatory factors
(in %)
-80.00%
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay Argentina México
ULC$ W/P RER Productivity
Manufacturing as a % of GDP at constant prices
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
22.00%
24.00%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay