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Major Science and Technology- Related Issues and Opportunities

for the Next Administration

33rd Annual AAAS S&T Policy Forum

Washington, DC, 9 May, 2008

Gilbert S. Omenn

University of Michigan

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The Economy and the Budget at the Previous Presidential Transition in 2001

• A remarkable bipartisan success had produced a robust economy with a $550 billion annual surplus---a time for big decisions about meeting the needs of our nation for a generation.

• For research investments, there was bipartisan commitment to complete doubling of the NIH budget and initiate doubling of the NSF budget.

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The New Millennium Started with the Human Genome Sequence (Feb 2001)

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The Terrorist Attacks on 9-11Altered Everyone’s Agenda

• There is huge unfinished business on a risk-based comprehensive homeland security program and on preparedness for all kinds of terrorism, as well as natural disasters and emerging infections.

• There is an important technology and science base for counter-terrorism, as outlined in 2002 by the Academies in “Making the Nation Safer”.

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Drivers of the Federal Budget 5 Years Later (Policy Forum, 2006)

• Huge expenditures for the War on Terrorism and homeland security

• Deep tax cuts, with long-term pending

• Decision to go to war in Iraq---with huge budget consequences and oil at $72/bbl

• Huge projected commitments for an aging population, especially Medicare

Same drivers now—only more intense.

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The Next President Must Re-order the Priorities of the Nation

1. Address long-deferred needs in energy, global environment, the economy, the workforce, education, health, and infrastructure.

2. Create fresh strategic plans for defense, space, homeland security, and intelligence.

3. Repair/revive international relationships.4. Make clear the critical contributions from S&T

to our Nation’s future and strengthen the base for research and innovation and policy advice.

.

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Our Nation’s Energy Future Project Independence, December 1973

Priorities, in order:

1. Create technologies for much more efficient combustion of fuels

2. Enhance recovery from existing oil fields

3. Create clean coal technologies

4. Improve efficiency and safety of nuclear fission reactor operations and waste management

5. Accelerate development of long-term sources--solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear fusion

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Key Energy Challenges--2009

• Engage the public and create numerous community-based jobs for energy efficiency and energy conservation

• Accelerate use of renewables• Defer new coal-fired plants unless equipped with

carbon capture/storage• Influence other energy-hungry countries to take

similar actions• Sustain, efficiently and safely, the aging nuclear

power reactor segment of our energy supply• Make our country more secure by reversing our

extreme dependence on foreign oil

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NAS/COSEPUP Report on Mitigating Global Climate Change (1991)

Decreasing use of fossil fuels will address three major national challenges at once:

• Reducing carbon emissions to slow the increase in greenhouse gases

• Reducing pollutants to improve air quality

• Reducing dependence on foreign oil to improve national security and the economy

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Global Climate Change in 2008

• The IPCC conclusions have become definitive.• The U.S. has squandered international

leadership for a decade.• All three candidates are committed to action.• Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at 500 ppm would

be possible if global emissions from fossil-fuel combustion in 2050 could be cut in half from the mid-range business-as-usual estimate of 14 billion metric tons of carbon in CO2 per year.

• The next President will have an ideal window for a bold “call to action”.

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Example of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering for Sustainability (NAS)

Green chemistry, replacing solvents, improving catalysts

Life cycle analysis tools and models

Toxicologic characterization of all chemical inputs and outputs

Renewable chemical feedstocks from biomass

Renewable fuel sources

More efficient chemical processing

Separation, sequestration, and utilization of CO2

Science literacy at all levels

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U.N. Millennium Development Goals (2001)

People-centered, time-bound, measurable goals for peace, security, development, human rights and fundamental freedoms (1990 to 2015):

1. Eradicate extreme poverty (<$1/day; 1 billion people) and hunger--by 50%2. Achieve universal primary education for boys and girls3. Promote gender equality and empower women4. Reduce child mortality rate before age 5 by 67% 5. Improve maternal health--reduce mortality ratio by 75%6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases---begin to reverse incidence and spread7. Ensure environmental sustainabiity--50% reduction in those without safe drinking water8. Develop a global partnership for development

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A Comment on National Security and Homeland Security

• The two White House Councils should be candidates for consolidation.

• The science, technology, and education base, including behavioral research and regional studies, should be re-invigorated.

• The energy, environmental, food and water, immigration, and North-South dimensions of national security deserve special emphasis.

• The consequences of big shifts of resources for high performance computing (DARPA) and biomedical research (NIH) should be assessed.

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Bring Innovation and Investment to Economic Competitiveness

• Innovation historically has accounted for 30-50% of economic growth and surely will be the engine of growth in the future, globally.

• The U.S. needs well-prepared graduates at all levels from all population groups to fill numerous jobs in a knowledge-based economy and in global networks of mid-sized firms (Branscomb).

• Our investment in R&D for innovation and in education and training of the workforce should be boosted with funding of the America Competes Act passed by Congress.

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RISING ABOVE RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING THE GATHERING STORMSTORM:: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES,

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING, AND

INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE

OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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America Competes Act

• Double the funding for physical sciences research at NSF, DOE/OS, and NIST over 10 years---get back on schedule and create E-ARPA at DOE.

• Provide major support for STEM education and teacher training.

• Renew and make permanent the R&D tax credit for companies.

• Ease access for foreign students, visitors, and residents.

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Health and HealthCare Research• The widely-accepted agenda of quality

enhancement, health IT infrastructure, cost containment, disease prevention, and universal insurance needs comprehensive research.

• Basic, clinical, and population research is critical for generating high-quality, cost-effective medical and public health services for diagnosis, prevention, treatment, rehabilitation.

• 25-30% of >$2 trillion/yr of health expenditures go for chasing symptoms of common diseases without touching the underlying disease process.

• After treading water for 5 years, it is time to increase biomedical research funding at NIH.

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Transition Team Imperatives During the General Election Campaign (summer-fall)

• President needs an excellent team to propose and mobilize his call to action on critical issues. Take inspiration from Abshire’s book “A Call to Greatness: Challenging our Next President”.

• An experienced, diverse group should identify and recommend candidates for the President’s Assistant for S&T position, to be selected & announced at the same time as other Assistants to the President.

• Well-vetted lists of candidates for the top-20 and top-50 S&T positions should be prepared for nomination to the Senate at the same time as Cabinet and agency heads..

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2009 Must Be A Break-Out Year

• Not a time for treading water, following the polls, or muddling-through about the great challenges facing the country.

• The New President hopefully will have brought the American people a positive vision for our country, with a commitment to restoring our moral, intellectual, diplo-matic, and economic leadership in the world.

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Potential Specific Actions in January

• Get Presidential appointees confirmed early.• Submit selected revisions to the FY09 Budget,

--components of the America Competes Act

--a high-visibility international project (ITER)

--specific steps to reduce carbon emissions and

stabilize CO2 levels• Redirect NASA from preparation for Mars manned

visits to stronger science and environmental sensing programs.

• Remove constraints on funding for human stem cell research and propose needed regulation.

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Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

• A strong OSTP is an asset to the President and the Administration, helping to define priorities.

• OSTP, through the National Science and Technology Council, should play a critical role in interagency coordination and cooperation.

• OSTP has been a key partner for OMB and NSC

• That role can be broadened within the EOP.

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Priorities for the New Administration

1. Address long-deferred needs in energy, global environment, the economy, the workforce, education, health, and infrastructure.

2. Create fresh strategic plans for defense, space, homeland security, and intelligence.

3. Repair/revive international relationships.

4. Make clear the critical contributions from S&T to our Nation’s future and strengthen the base for research and innovation and policy advice.