The Global Imprint of Warming on Life

AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015

Camille Parmesan

Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England

Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin

High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses of Recent Changes in Biological Systems

Study N: species + functional groupings

% Changing: distribution/ phenology

% changes consistent with Climate Change

Parmesan & Yohe Nature

2003 1598 59 % 84 %

Root et al. Nature 2003 1468 40 % 82.3 %

Root et al. PNAS 2005 145 - 92 %

Rosenzweig et al Nature 2008 55 studies - 90 %

Poloczanska et al. Nature

Climate Change 2013

857 76 % 83 %

Trends in Land and Ocean Temperatures – past 50 years

Burrows et al.Science 2011

Temperature change 1960-2009 (°C/decade)

Velocity of Temperature Shifts in Space

R a t e o f c h a n g e i n l o c a t i o n s o f t e m p e r a t u r e i s o t h e r m s i n p a s t 5 0 ye a r s 1 9 6 0 - 2 0 0 9 ( k m / d e c a d e )

Burrows et al. Science 2011

k m / d e c a d e g e o g r a p h i c s h i f t s o f i s o t h e r m s

fast

moderate

slow

Species Shi f t ing in to His tor ica l ly Cooler Lands and Waters

M a r i n e : m e a n s h i f t = 4 7 m i / d e c a d e ( 1 m e t a - a n a l y s i s )

Te r r e s t r i a l : m e a n s h i f t = 4 & 11 m i / d e c a d e ( 2 m e t a - a n a l y s e s )

B u t t e r f l i e s > 1 2 4 m i l e s i n 5 y r s

P u r p l e e m p e r o r

b o n y f i s h : > 1 2 4 m i / d e c At l a n t i c c o d

d i a t o m ~ 2 5 0 m i / d e c Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999

Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC) Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts:

• Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks

Strong Sink

Sink & Barrier

Mild Sink

Inflow & Termination “Sinks”

Mild Sources

Strong Sources Non-moving

Slow moving

Stable “Refugia”

Movement Into “Species Gains”

Net Outflow “Species Loss”

Burrows et al. Nature 2014

Corridors Convergence

Purple emperor (Apatura iris)

Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm.

2 independent invasions

Northward expansion of A i r is : * Ba l t ic was barr ier ( lag of 10-20 years) * Rapid expansion a f ter ar r iva l in FN & SW * Both correct ly predic ted by VoCC

P Schappert

apollo, Europe & Nepal

pika, USA & Nepal

Mountaintop species going extinct at lowest elevations

white lemuroid possum , Australia

Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade

Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade

Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)

Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade

Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade

Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0)

Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade

Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012

• Near ly ¾ of p lants in long- term UK dataset a re dr iven only by spr ing temperatures

• Warmer spr ings cause advanced f lower ing

Observed changes in timing of first flowering

Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012

• For species that requi re w inter ch i l l ing: • Winter warming causes de lay • Spr ing warming causes advancement • Observed changes are sum of two

opposing dr ivers

only respond to spring warming:

flowering earlier

red maple

creeping phlox

Signs Of Climate Change in DC

Signs Of Climate Change in DC

spring advance + winter delay = little change

mock strawberry

dandelion

Precipitation can be stronger driver than temperature

• Cal i forn ia s tudy – 64 p lant species • censuses in 1930s and 2000s • 72 % of p lants sh i f ted downslope:

o 269 f t . on average • Temperatures increased:

o + 1 .2°F (mean annua l ) • Rain & snow increased across

nor thern hal f o f CA • Downward expansions fo l lowed

increased water avai lab i l i ty Crimmins et al. Science 2011

0 150 -100

Cal i forn ia

Change in to ta l annual prec ip i ta t ion (mm): t ime per iods 1920 - 1949 vs 1976 - 2005

Mountain hemlock expanded 837 ft downhil l in California

Photo: Charles Webber, California Academy of Sciences

S i n c e 1 9 3 0 s t e m p e r a t u r e 5 ° F w a t e r d e f i c i t 5 . 3 i n .

Summary – responses of wild species to 0.7°C global increase since 1900

• ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward (50 - 1600 km) and/or upward (up to 400 m)

• ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming….

• Every major group studied has been affected • trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians,

corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton • New research documents complex responses -

pr ior s tudies of propor t ion of species impacted by c l imate change are under -est imates Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013;

Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press

Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012

Al l p lants were equal ly sensi t ive to spr ing warming, but d i f fer ing responses to w inter

warming drove d i f ferences in observed shi f ts in t iming of f lower ing