1 mapping the future colonel dr. thomas will, ge a chief, strategic forecasting branch bundeswehr...
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1
Mapping the Future
Colonel Dr. Thomas Will, GE A
Chief, Strategic Forecasting Branch
Bundeswehr Transformation Center
2
Joint Service Office
Administrativ Subordination Operational Subordination
Bundeswehr Bundeswehr Transformation CentreTransformation Centre
Ministry of DefenceMinistry of DefenceChief of StaffChief of StaffBundeswehrBundeswehr
ArmyArmy Joint SupportJoint SupportServiceServiceAir ForceAir Force NavyNavy MedicalMedical
ServiceService
Vice Chief of Staff &Vice Chief of Staff &CoS Joint SupportCoS Joint Support
Vice Chief of StaffVice Chief of StaffBundeswehrBundeswehr
Armed Forces StaffArmed Forces Staff
For whom do we work?For whom do we work?
3Where to find usWhere to find us
Commander
Deputy Commander& Chief of Staff
Department IICD&E
Department ITransformation
Department IIIOR, M&S
StrategicForecasting
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Develop a Permanent Element
which identifies Potentials for Improvement
relevant for German security policy
Develop a Permanent Element
which identifies Potentials for Improvement
relevant for German security policy
Methodology for a Systematic Strategic Forecasting
Interdisciplinary Co-Operation
What we are doing
5
How it started
• 1996 Ad hoc Working Group „Armed Forces Development 2020“
• 2002 Armed Forces, Capabilities, and Technologies in the 21st Century – 2030 (Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – 2030 – abbreviated: SFT 21 – 2030)
• 2005 SFT 21 – 2035• Since April 2006: Permanent element within
Bundeswehr Transformation Center
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• Detect Potentials of the Future
• Function as an Early Warning System
• Target Capabilities
• Present CHODS with Alternative Options
The Task
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Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents
Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents
Armed Forces 2015 / 25Armed Forces 2015 / 25
2040
2005
20252015
Time lineDirection of thought
in thestudy process
Direction of thoughtin the
study process
Topdown
Security Environment 2040
Aim:Aim:Armed Forces Able to Fulfil Political MissionsArmed Forces Able to Fulfil Political Missions
Looking Back from Alternative Futures
Bottom upBundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term)Bundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term)
8Main Questions
What are the risk potentials in the 21st century?
How will the future face of war look like?
What kind of changes will we be confronted with?
What does that mean with regard to security policy?
What does that mean for the security community?
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Security Relevant Environment 2040
Capability AnalysisCapabilitiesCapabilities
Recommendations for ActionRecommendations for Action
Trend Analysis
Overall Approach
Interdisciplinaryand
InternationalCooperation
Interdisciplinaryand
InternationalCooperation
Workshopson
Specific Issues
Workshopson
Specific Issues
Scenario BuildingScenario Building
Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis
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Need to identify Need to identify changing potential!changing potential!
Demography
Environment/Ressources
Science & Technology
Economy
Culture
Society
Politics
Trend AreasTrend Areas
Increased InterdependenceIncreased InterdependenceIncreased Decision DensityIncreased Decision DensityIncreased NetworkIncreased Network
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1. Global Level
1. Global Level
3. Local Level
3. Local Level
2. Regional Level
2. Regional Level
Geographical Trend Analysis
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• Islamic World
• Organized Crime
• Change in Climate
• Development of Energy
• Use of Oceans
• Islamic World
• Organized Crime
• Change in Climate
• Development of Energy
• Use of Oceans
• Use of Space
• Knowledge Society
• Nano-Technology
• Bio-Technology
• Historical Trend Analysis
• Use of Space
• Knowledge Society
• Nano-Technology
• Bio-Technology
• Historical Trend Analysis
Subject Areas of Trend Analysis
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TOPOGRAPHY ofALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
TOPOGRAPHY ofALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
INITIAL SCENARIOINITIAL SCENARIO
Notion of DirectionNotion of Direction
Time HorizonTime Horizon
Aim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed ForcesAim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed Forces
TRENDSTRENDS
ANALYSIS ofCHANGING POTENTIALS
ANALYSIS ofCHANGING POTENTIALS
Scenario Building and Analysis
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Personnel: An Interdisciplinary Approach
COL
CPT
LTCArmy
CMDRNavy
LTCAir Force
LTCArmy
Dr.Civil Engineer
MAPolitical Sciences
MAEconomics
MAHumanities