1. measuring vulnerability

CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo

Senter for klimaforskning

1. Measuring 1. Measuring VulnerabilityVulnerability

Karen O’Brien

CICERO, University of Oslo

Email: [email protected]

START Advanced Institute on Vulnerability

May 11, 2004

Measuring Vulnerability:Measuring Vulnerability:

1.1. Theoretical issues Theoretical issues

2.2. Conceptualizations of vulnerability Conceptualizations of vulnerability

3.3. Practical issues Practical issues

4.4. The use of scenarios The use of scenarios

Definitions of VulnerabilityDefinitions of Vulnerability

1.1. ””an aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates an aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations” (Bohle et al. 1994)a range of harmful perturbations” (Bohle et al. 1994)

2.2. “…“…the exposure to contingencies and stress, and difficulty the exposure to contingencies and stress, and difficulty in coping with them. Vulnerability thus has two sides: an in coping with them. Vulnerability thus has two sides: an external side of risks, shocks and stress to which an external side of risks, shocks and stress to which an individual or household is subject; and an internal side individual or household is subject; and an internal side which is defencelessness, meaning a lack of means to which is defencelessness, meaning a lack of means to cope without damaging loss” (Chambers 1989)cope without damaging loss” (Chambers 1989)

3.3. ””Vulnerability: Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.change, including climate variability and extremes. (IPCC (IPCC 2001)2001)

Why measure vulnerability?Why measure vulnerability?

1.1. Identify magnitude of threats, such as Identify magnitude of threats, such as climate change;climate change;

2.2. Guide decision-making on international Guide decision-making on international aid and investment;aid and investment;

3.3. Prioritize aid for climate change Prioritize aid for climate change adaptation;adaptation;

4.4. Identify measures to reduce vulnerability.Identify measures to reduce vulnerability.

Can vulnerability be Can vulnerability be measured?measured?

Vulnerability is a characteristic, trait, or condition; Vulnerability is a characteristic, trait, or condition; not readily measured or observable, thus we not readily measured or observable, thus we need proxy measures and indicators;need proxy measures and indicators;

Vulnerability is relative, not absolute;Vulnerability is relative, not absolute; Everyone is vulnerable, but some are more Everyone is vulnerable, but some are more

vulnerable than others;vulnerable than others; Vulnerability relates to consequences or Vulnerability relates to consequences or

outcomes, and not to the agent itself;outcomes, and not to the agent itself; Defining levels of vulnerability that prompt Defining levels of vulnerability that prompt

actions or interventions is a social and political actions or interventions is a social and political process.process.

What is the opposite of What is the opposite of vulnerability?vulnerability?

Is there an opposite?Is there an opposite? Is it resilience, adaptability, or Is it resilience, adaptability, or

human security?human security?

Conceptualizing Conceptualizing vulnerabilityvulnerability

Vulnerability can be conceptualized in Vulnerability can be conceptualized in different ways.different ways.

Any conceptualization of vulnerability can Any conceptualization of vulnerability can be interpreted in different ways.be interpreted in different ways.

Conceptualizations and interpretation of Conceptualizations and interpretation of vulnerability have implications for what is vulnerability have implications for what is measured and how it is measured.measured and how it is measured.

Vulnerability measures can have political Vulnerability measures can have political and economic consequences; and economic consequences; transparency (in both concepts and transparency (in both concepts and methods) is necessary.methods) is necessary.

Biophysical vulnerabilityBiophysical vulnerability

Focuses on ecological processes, Focuses on ecological processes, exposure to processes of physical exposure to processes of physical change;change;

Indicators include length of growing Indicators include length of growing season; frost days, intense season; frost days, intense precipitation, etc.precipitation, etc.

Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability

Focus on social, political, economic Focus on social, political, economic and cultural determinants of and cultural determinants of vulnerability.vulnerability.

Indicators include education, income, Indicators include education, income, and other proxy data (social capital, and other proxy data (social capital, entitlements, livelihood entitlements, livelihood diversification).diversification).

Climate change Climate change vulnerabilityvulnerability

IPCC vulnerability framework:IPCC vulnerability framework:

V = f(E, S, AC)V = f(E, S, AC)

E = ExposureE = Exposure

S = SensitivityS = Sensitivity

AC = Adaptive CapacityAC = Adaptive Capacity

Exposure Exposure

The degree of The degree of climate stress upon a climate stress upon a particular unit of particular unit of analysisanalysis

Climate stress: Climate stress: long-term climate long-term climate

conditionsconditions climate variabilityclimate variability magnitude and frequency of magnitude and frequency of

extreme eventsextreme events

SensitivitySensitivity The degree to The degree to

which a system will which a system will respond, either respond, either positively or positively or negatively, to a negatively, to a change in climate.change in climate.

Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity

The capacity of a The capacity of a system to adjust in system to adjust in response to actual or response to actual or expected climate expected climate stimuli, their effects, stimuli, their effects, or impacts.or impacts.

The degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate.

Interpretation 1:Interpretation 1:

Vulnerability analysis as a means of Vulnerability analysis as a means of defining the extent of the climate defining the extent of the climate problemproblem

Vulnerability = Impacts – AdaptationsVulnerability = Impacts – Adaptations Adaptability defines vulnerabilityAdaptability defines vulnerability Vulnerability is the end-point of the Vulnerability is the end-point of the

analysis analysis

Interpretation 2:Interpretation 2:

Vulnerability analysis as a means of identifying Vulnerability analysis as a means of identifying what to do about climate change.what to do about climate change.

Vulnerability is shaped by adaptive capacity.Vulnerability is shaped by adaptive capacity. Vulnerability determines adaptabilityVulnerability determines adaptability Vulnerability is the starting point of the analysis.Vulnerability is the starting point of the analysis. Under this interpretation, we need measures of Under this interpretation, we need measures of

the social processes that contribute to the social processes that contribute to vulnerability.vulnerability.

ImplicationsImplications

End point: We need better GCM End point: We need better GCM scenarios, better process models, and scenarios, better process models, and better quantifications of adaptation;better quantifications of adaptation;

Starting point: We need better Starting point: We need better understanding of coping capacity, understanding of coping capacity, adaptive capacity, outcomes of social adaptive capacity, outcomes of social processes, and measures of well-being.processes, and measures of well-being.

Measuring vulnerability:Measuring vulnerability:Practical challengesPractical challenges

How should indicators be chosen?How should indicators be chosen? Are adequate data available?Are adequate data available? How should composite indicators be How should composite indicators be

developed?developed? How can measures of vulnerability be How can measures of vulnerability be

validated?validated?

Choosing indicators: Deductive Choosing indicators: Deductive approachapproach

Theory driven: Start from theory or Theory driven: Start from theory or hypothesis; find indicators that might hypothesis; find indicators that might support or reject the hypothesis.support or reject the hypothesis.

Example: Adger and Kelly (2000) Example: Adger and Kelly (2000) hypothesize that the architecture of hypothesize that the architecture of entitlements is a key determinant of entitlements is a key determinant of vulnerability in Vietnam; thus they identify vulnerability in Vietnam; thus they identify income levels, income inequality and income levels, income inequality and diversity of livelihood as key indicators.diversity of livelihood as key indicators.

Choosing indicators: Inductive Choosing indicators: Inductive approachapproach

Data driven: Examine lots of data, look for Data driven: Examine lots of data, look for patterns and examine correlations or patterns and examine correlations or statistical relationships. Generalizations can be statistical relationships. Generalizations can be used to develop conceptual models and used to develop conceptual models and theories.theories.

Example: Ramachandran and Eastman (1997) Example: Ramachandran and Eastman (1997) analyzed 92 variables to explain the need for analyzed 92 variables to explain the need for food assistance in West Africa. Using statistical food assistance in West Africa. Using statistical methods, they identified the contributions of methods, they identified the contributions of different variables to vulnerability.different variables to vulnerability.

Reality:Reality:

Eriksen and Kelly (submitted) point out Eriksen and Kelly (submitted) point out that in most national level assessments of that in most national level assessments of vulnerability, the selection of indicators is vulnerability, the selection of indicators is based on a ”rudimentary theoretical based on a ”rudimentary theoretical appreciation of vulnerability (which is appreciation of vulnerability (which is often, it is only fair to say, all that is often, it is only fair to say, all that is available)”. Few ”inductive” indicator available)”. Few ”inductive” indicator studies explicitly discuss implications of studies explicitly discuss implications of findings for vulnerability theory. findings for vulnerability theory.

Most studies that measure vulnerability Most studies that measure vulnerability are ”not easily distinguishable as either are ”not easily distinguishable as either deductive or inductive…”deductive or inductive…”

DataData

Need for reliable, readily available, and Need for reliable, readily available, and representative data for desired indicators of representative data for desired indicators of vulnerability.vulnerability.

Compiling national data is difficult. National Compiling national data is difficult. National level vulnerability assessments often rely level vulnerability assessments often rely on existing global data sets (FAO, World on existing global data sets (FAO, World Bank, UNDP, WRI, etc.)Bank, UNDP, WRI, etc.)

More detailed data usually available for sub-More detailed data usually available for sub-national assessments (e.g., census data)national assessments (e.g., census data)

DataData

““Data are usually treated Data are usually treated unproblematically except for technical unproblematically except for technical concerns about errors. But data are much concerns about errors. But data are much more than technical compilations. more than technical compilations. Every Every data set represents a myriad of social data set represents a myriad of social relationsrelations.” .”

(Taylor and Johnston 1995, p. 58)(Taylor and Johnston 1995, p. 58)

Social relations exemplified in different Social relations exemplified in different sources of irrigation statistics for Indiasources of irrigation statistics for India

Irrigation DepartmentIrrigation Department Irrigation data as basis for repayment of water Irrigation data as basis for repayment of water

fee to maintain irrigation facilitiesfee to maintain irrigation facilities Revenue officeRevenue office

Irrigation data as basis for land taxes--which Irrigation data as basis for land taxes--which are higher for irrigated landsare higher for irrigated lands

Agriculture DepartmentAgriculture Department Supposed to survey all land in the districtSupposed to survey all land in the district

No consistency between these sourcesNo consistency between these sources

V.-V.-DimensionDimension

Desired variablesDesired variables

EmpowermentEmpowerment Child sex rate (”missing girls” or excess girl Child sex rate (”missing girls” or excess girl mortality)mortality)

Female literacy levelFemale literacy level

Literacy levelLiteracy level

Fertility levelFertility level

Share of landholdings by farm sizeShare of landholdings by farm size

% Landless agricultural labourers% Landless agricultural labourers

TechnologyTechnology Irrigation rateIrrigation rate

Infrastructure Development Index (CMIE)Infrastructure Development Index (CMIE)

Source of irrigationSource of irrigation

Access to safe drinking waterAccess to safe drinking water

Fertilizer consumptionFertilizer consumption

PovertyPoverty People below poverty linePeople below poverty line

Infant Mortality RateInfant Mortality Rate

Housing statusHousing status

Dependency Dependency on agricultureon agriculture

Employment in agriculture Employment in agriculture

V.-V.-DimensionDimension

Available dataAvailable data

EmpowermentEmpowerment Child sex rate (”missing girls” or excess girl Child sex rate (”missing girls” or excess girl mortality)mortality)

Female literacy levelFemale literacy level

Literacy levelLiteracy level

% Landless agricultural labourers% Landless agricultural labourers

TechnologyTechnology Irrigation rateIrrigation rate

Infrastructure Development Index (CMIE)Infrastructure Development Index (CMIE)

PovertyPoverty

Dependency Dependency on agricultureon agriculture

Employment in agriculture Employment in agriculture

Does the choice of indicators Does the choice of indicators and index matter?and index matter?

” ”In one sense, this is an empirical question. In one sense, this is an empirical question. The analyst should test different The analyst should test different formulations—choices of indicators, formulations—choices of indicators, transformations, modes of aggregation, transformations, modes of aggregation, variations in data quality, etc. If the overall variations in data quality, etc. If the overall rankings do not differ much, then one could rankings do not differ much, then one could argue for the simplest formulation. argue for the simplest formulation. Compiling an index is not however an end Compiling an index is not however an end in itself. The form of the index may itself be in itself. The form of the index may itself be part of the process of getting support for part of the process of getting support for the index and its policy implications.”the index and its policy implications.”Source: Downing et al.

2001

Dynamics of vulnerabilityDynamics of vulnerability

Vulnerability is dynamic; indicators Vulnerability is dynamic; indicators are often static. are often static.

Snapshots of vulnerability do not tell Snapshots of vulnerability do not tell us who is becoming more vulnerable us who is becoming more vulnerable (or less vulnerable) as time goes on.(or less vulnerable) as time goes on.

Creating composite indicesCreating composite indices

Vulnerability is multi-dimensional; there is Vulnerability is multi-dimensional; there is no one indicator that adequately no one indicator that adequately represents vulnerability.represents vulnerability.

Composite indices can provide a more Composite indices can provide a more complex measure of vulnerability.complex measure of vulnerability.

Many potential methods exist for Many potential methods exist for aggregating indicators (e.g., indiscriminate aggregating indicators (e.g., indiscriminate aggregation, weighted indicators, targeted aggregation, weighted indicators, targeted indicators, contingent indicators, dynamic indicators, contingent indicators, dynamic indicators, heirarchical vulnerability indicators, heirarchical vulnerability indices, vulnerability profiles)indices, vulnerability profiles)

Creating composite indicesCreating composite indices

””Unless a verifiable outcome variable Unless a verifiable outcome variable is available, there is no clear reason is available, there is no clear reason to choose a particular approach. A to choose a particular approach. A guiding principle may be to keep the guiding principle may be to keep the analysis transparent and accessible analysis transparent and accessible to end users.” (Downing et al. 2001)to end users.” (Downing et al. 2001)

Verifying measures of Verifying measures of vulnerabilityvulnerability

””Verification conveys authority and Verification conveys authority and credibility, but also contributes to credibility, but also contributes to improving the understanding of improving the understanding of vulnerability and hence the vulnerability and hence the representation of processes in representation of processes in indicator studies” (Eriksen and Kelly, indicator studies” (Eriksen and Kelly, submitted)submitted)


In the case of deductive approaches, verification In the case of deductive approaches, verification involves assessment of goodness of fit between involves assessment of goodness of fit between theoretical predictions and empirical evidence.theoretical predictions and empirical evidence.

In the case of inductive approaches, the In the case of inductive approaches, the statistical analysis must incorporate verification statistical analysis must incorporate verification of any results through testing on independent of any results through testing on independent data.data.

Unfortunately, such verification has been limited Unfortunately, such verification has been limited in existing studies of vulnerability indicators.in existing studies of vulnerability indicators.

Source: Eriksen and Kelly, article submitted to MASGC


Is the outcome acceptable?Is the outcome acceptable? Does the ranking match what people Does the ranking match what people

expect based on their experience?expect based on their experience? Can anomalies be explained?Can anomalies be explained? Who should be the judge?Who should be the judge? How can dissenting views be How can dissenting views be

represented?represented?Source: Downing et al. 2001

Measuring vulnerability: Measuring vulnerability: ScenariosScenarios

When we are concerned about future When we are concerned about future conditions (e.g., under climate change), and conditions (e.g., under climate change), and we want to project vulnerability into the we want to project vulnerability into the future, we need scenarios.future, we need scenarios.

Focusing on present-day vulnerability to Focusing on present-day vulnerability to future climate change can provide a starting future climate change can provide a starting point for actions or interventions to reduce point for actions or interventions to reduce vulnerability; less useful for assessing the vulnerability; less useful for assessing the extent of the climate change problem.extent of the climate change problem.

Different types of scenarios: Different types of scenarios:

Climate change scenarios: Generated by general Climate change scenarios: Generated by general circulation models (GCMs) or synthetic scenarios circulation models (GCMs) or synthetic scenarios (+/- 10% precipitation, 30 cm sea level rise, etc.);(+/- 10% precipitation, 30 cm sea level rise, etc.);

The output of GCMs depend on assumptions about The output of GCMs depend on assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions, feedbacks, etc. SRES greenhouse gas emissions, feedbacks, etc. SRES scenarios represent emissions according to scenarios represent emissions according to different development trajectories;different development trajectories;

Vulnerability will depend on social and economic Vulnerability will depend on social and economic trends (economic development, population growth);trends (economic development, population growth);

However, globalization is creating structural social, However, globalization is creating structural social, economic and political changes, thus extrapolation economic and political changes, thus extrapolation of trends into the future may not be sufficient to of trends into the future may not be sufficient to describe the future.describe the future.

ScenariosScenarios

How can we incorporate future How can we incorporate future scenarios into measures of scenarios into measures of vulnerability?vulnerability?

What types of uncertainty are added What types of uncertainty are added to vulnerability measures? to vulnerability measures?

How can measures of vulnerability How can measures of vulnerability based on scenarios be validated?based on scenarios be validated?



2. Mapping Vulnerability2. Mapping Vulnerability

Why map vulnerability?Why map vulnerability?

Vulnerability can be both socially and Vulnerability can be both socially and spatially referenced (it is associated with spatially referenced (it is associated with social and environmental phenomena, social and environmental phenomena, which often have locational components);which often have locational components);

Measures of vulnerability can be Measures of vulnerability can be visualized through mapping, and patterns visualized through mapping, and patterns can be identified and analyzed through can be identified and analyzed through spatial analysis (tomorrow’s lecture!).spatial analysis (tomorrow’s lecture!).

How to map vulnerability?How to map vulnerability?

Mental mapping Mental mapping Remote sensing (NDVI)Remote sensing (NDVI) Geographic Information Systems and Geographic Information Systems and

Science (GIS)Science (GIS)

Examples of vulnerability Examples of vulnerability maps:maps:

The issue of scaleThe issue of scale

National scale assessments of National scale assessments of vulnerability (to produce a global vulnerability (to produce a global map)map)

Regional vulnerability assessments Regional vulnerability assessments (e.g., West Africa)(e.g., West Africa)

Sub-national vulnerability Sub-national vulnerability assessments (e.g., Norway, India)assessments (e.g., Norway, India)

National level vulnerability National level vulnerability mapsmaps

Need indicators common to all Need indicators common to all countries (comparable time periods, countries (comparable time periods, units)units)

Present coarse generalizations; hide Present coarse generalizations; hide sub-national variations and ”pockets sub-national variations and ”pockets of vulnerability.”of vulnerability.”

Can be useful for broad comparisons, Can be useful for broad comparisons, correlation with other national correlation with other national statistics (GHG emissions)statistics (GHG emissions)

Regional-level vulnerability Regional-level vulnerability mapsmaps

Represents differential vulnerability Represents differential vulnerability across regions;across regions;

Context-specific indicators can be Context-specific indicators can be chosen;chosen;

Potentially greater availability of data Potentially greater availability of data (from regional institutions, or compiled (from regional institutions, or compiled from national statistics);from national statistics);

Useful for identification of regional Useful for identification of regional ”hot spots” and policy analysis. ”hot spots” and policy analysis.

Sub-national vulnerability Sub-national vulnerability mapsmaps

Represents variations in vulnerability Represents variations in vulnerability within one country, state, county, within one country, state, county, district, or village;district, or village;

Potentially larger amount of data Potentially larger amount of data available (but large data gaps can available (but large data gaps can still exist);still exist);

Can be used to develop national Can be used to develop national adaptation strategies, aid adaptation strategies, aid distribution, development plans, etc.distribution, development plans, etc.

ChallengesChallenges

Integrating raster and vector or Integrating raster and vector or biophysical and social data;biophysical and social data;

Normalization and weighting of Normalization and weighting of indicators;indicators;

ClassificationClassification

Example of Mapping Example of Mapping ApproachApproach

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in NorwayChange in Norway

Indicators of biophysical Indicators of biophysical vulnerability: Agricultural sectorvulnerability: Agricultural sector Spring rainfallSpring rainfall Autumn rainfallAutumn rainfall Length of growing seasonLength of growing season Spring frost/thawSpring frost/thaw Autumn frost/thawAutumn frost/thaw Snow depthSnow depth

Indicators of social vulnerability:Indicators of social vulnerability:

Climate sensitivityClimate sensitivity Employment in agricultural sector, %Employment in agricultural sector, %

Economic capacityEconomic capacity Untied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOKUntied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOK Employment growth prognosis, %Employment growth prognosis, %

Demographic capacityDemographic capacity Dependency rate, %Dependency rate, % Aging working population, %Aging working population, % Net migration rate, avg. 91-01 %Net migration rate, avg. 91-01 %

How correct are these How correct are these indicators?indicators?

Case studies must be carried out to Case studies must be carried out to verify the indicators selected, and verify the indicators selected, and identify factors that shape identify factors that shape vulnerability in Norwegian vulnerability in Norwegian municipalities.municipalities.

Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and OppdalOppdal

Mapping Vulnerability to Mapping Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Climate Multiple Stressors: Climate Change and Globalization in Change and Globalization in

IndiaIndia

Karen O’BrienKaren O’Brien11, Robin Leichenko, Robin Leichenko22, Ulka Kelkar, Ulka Kelkar33, Henry , Henry VenemaVenema44, Guro Aandahl, Guro Aandahl11, Heather Tompkins, Heather Tompkins11, Akram , Akram

JavedJaved33, Suruchi Bhadwal, Suruchi Bhadwal33, Stephan Barg, Stephan Barg44, Lynn , Lynn NygaardNygaard11,, Jennifer WestJennifer West11

11CICERO CICERO 22Rutgers University Rutgers University 33TERI TERI 44IISDIISD

Indian agricultureIndian agriculture Agriculture is the dominant economic sector Agriculture is the dominant economic sector

(employs 68% of the population)(employs 68% of the population) Highly vulnerable to climate variability and Highly vulnerable to climate variability and

climate change climate change Undergoing rapid economic changes, presently Undergoing rapid economic changes, presently

threatened by globalization (especially import threatened by globalization (especially import competition, removal of domestic subsidies)competition, removal of domestic subsidies)

Appropriate example for investigation of Appropriate example for investigation of vulnerability to multiple stressorsvulnerability to multiple stressors

Mapping Vulnerability to Mapping Vulnerability to Multiple StressorsMultiple Stressors

1) develop a regional vulnerability profile for 1) develop a regional vulnerability profile for climate changeclimate change

2) develop a regional vulnerability profile for 2) develop a regional vulnerability profile for an an additional stressor (in this case additional stressor (in this case globalization)globalization)

3) superimpose the profiles to identify 3) superimpose the profiles to identify districts that are “double districts that are “double

exposed;” andexposed;” and

4) investigate double exposure at the local 4) investigate double exposure at the local level level via case studiesvia case studies

Step 1: Develop Profile of Step 1: Develop Profile of Vulnerability to Climate Vulnerability to Climate

ChangeChange

Operationalized the IPCC-based Operationalized the IPCC-based definition of Vulnerability (McCarthy definition of Vulnerability (McCarthy et al. 2001)et al. 2001)

Vulnerability to climate change is a Vulnerability to climate change is a function of adaptive capacity, function of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposuresensitivity, and exposure

Defining Adaptive Defining Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity and Capacity, Sensitivity and

ExposureExposure Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity: the ability of a system to : the ability of a system to

adjust to actual or expected climate stresses, or adjust to actual or expected climate stresses, or to cope with the consequences (a function of to cope with the consequences (a function of current social-economic-technological conditions)current social-economic-technological conditions)

SensitivitySensitivity: the degree to which a system will : the degree to which a system will respond to a change in climate, either positively respond to a change in climate, either positively or negatively (we based this current climatic or negatively (we based this current climatic conditions) conditions)

ExposureExposure relates to the degree of future climate relates to the degree of future climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis (we stress upon a particular unit of analysis (we based this on projected climatic change)based this on projected climatic change)

Operationalizing Adaptive Operationalizing Adaptive CapacityCapacity

A function of a combination of social, A function of a combination of social, economic and technological factorseconomic and technological factors Social: literacy, gender equalitySocial: literacy, gender equality Economic: agriculture share of labor force, Economic: agriculture share of labor force,

land ownershipland ownership Technological:quality of infrastructure and Technological:quality of infrastructure and

availability of irrigationavailability of irrigation Additive index, normalized and scaled: higher Additive index, normalized and scaled: higher

adaptive capacity implies lower vulnerabilityadaptive capacity implies lower vulnerability

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity

Operationalizing Sensitivity Operationalizing Sensitivity and Exposureand Exposure

Sensitivity: function of dryness and Sensitivity: function of dryness and monsoon dependence under normal monsoon dependence under normal climateclimate

Exposure: Alter the sensitivity index Exposure: Alter the sensitivity index using climate change scenarios using climate change scenarios (downscaled HadRM2 model)(downscaled HadRM2 model)

Additive index, normalized and scaled so Additive index, normalized and scaled so that highest sensitivity under exposure that highest sensitivity under exposure implies highest vulnerabilityimplies highest vulnerability

Sensitivity and Sensitivity and Sensitivity Under Sensitivity Under

ExposureExposure

Climate Change Climate Change VulnerabilityVulnerability

Summed adaptive capacity with Summed adaptive capacity with sensitivity under exposure sensitivity under exposure

Reveals current vulnerability to Reveals current vulnerability to future climate changefuture climate change

Climate Change VulnerabilityClimate Change Vulnerability

Step 2: Develop Profile of Step 2: Develop Profile of Vulnerability to Vulnerability to Globalization Globalization

Agricultural trade liberalization a key Agricultural trade liberalization a key dimension of globalization for Indian dimension of globalization for Indian agricultureagriculture

Focus on import competitionFocus on import competition Used IPCC typology of adaptive Used IPCC typology of adaptive

capacity, sensitivity and exposurecapacity, sensitivity and exposure

Operationalizing Operationalizing Globalization VulnerabilityGlobalization Vulnerability

Adaptive capacity: same definition as used Adaptive capacity: same definition as used for climate change adaptive capacityfor climate change adaptive capacity

Sensitivity (and exposure) to import Sensitivity (and exposure) to import competition: crop productivity, production competition: crop productivity, production patterns and distance to portspatterns and distance to ports low productivity, high shares of production in low productivity, high shares of production in

import competing crops, and close proximity import competing crops, and close proximity to ports make an area more sensitive to to ports make an area more sensitive to competition from international importscompetition from international imports

Globalization vulnerabilityGlobalization vulnerability

Step 3: Identify areas of Step 3: Identify areas of double exposuredouble exposure

Overlay climate change and Overlay climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles to globalization vulnerability profiles to identify areas that are double-identify areas that are double-exposedexposed

Use the information to inform policy Use the information to inform policy and to suggest areas for case study and to suggest areas for case study researchresearch

Double ExposureDouble Exposure

SummarySummary

Our approach reveals relative distribution of Our approach reveals relative distribution of vulnerability to multiple stressorsvulnerability to multiple stressors

Areas of double exposure need special Areas of double exposure need special attention from policy makersattention from policy makers

Vulnerability concept applies to a wide Vulnerability concept applies to a wide range of stressors -- human dimensions range of stressors -- human dimensions work informs other social science researchwork informs other social science research

Need to combine macro profiles with local-Need to combine macro profiles with local-level investigationlevel investigation

Key findings relevant to Key findings relevant to vulnerability mappingvulnerability mapping

Need to ”ground truth” the maps;Need to ”ground truth” the maps; Not all factors contributing to Not all factors contributing to

vulnerability can be captured in vulnerability can be captured in quantitative indicators (e.g., quantitative indicators (e.g., institutional factors, policies);institutional factors, policies);

Vulnerability changes over time.Vulnerability changes over time.

Social Vulnerability in IndiaSocial Vulnerability in India

Two components of Two components of vulnerabilityvulnerability

How useful are vulnerability How useful are vulnerability maps?maps?

Developing vulnerability measures and maps Developing vulnerability measures and maps moves ”vulnerability science” forward; they force moves ”vulnerability science” forward; they force us to clarify concepts; address methodological us to clarify concepts; address methodological challenges; interrogate assumptions, hypotheses, challenges; interrogate assumptions, hypotheses, and the processes that contribute to vulnerability;and the processes that contribute to vulnerability;

They provide a means of depicting differential They provide a means of depicting differential vulnerability;vulnerability;

The output maps can be dangerous if the The output maps can be dangerous if the concepts and methods are not transparent, and if concepts and methods are not transparent, and if they are taken as reality, rather than as one they are taken as reality, rather than as one representation of reality.representation of reality.

” ”All maps state an argument about All maps state an argument about the world” (Brian Harley)the world” (Brian Harley)

Know your conceptsKnow your concepts Know your dataKnow your data Know your caseKnow your case



Hands On Exercise: Hands On Exercise: Mapping Vulnerability in Mapping Vulnerability in

IndiaIndia

START Advanced Institute on Vulnerability

May 11, 2004

When mapping vulnerability, When mapping vulnerability, how do we define and assign how do we define and assign

different levels of vulnerability?different levels of vulnerability?

Issue that we will address:Issue that we will address:

NormalizationNormalization Weighting Weighting ClassificationClassification

Normalization Normalization

HDI method (UNDP): Normalization HDI method (UNDP): Normalization to the rangeto the range

But to which range?But to which range?

)()(

100minmax

min

xxxxi

Fixing of ”goalposts” for Fixing of ”goalposts” for max and min valuesmax and min values

Comparison in spaceComparison in space Who should we measure against?Who should we measure against?

Comparison in timeComparison in time Retrospective: What has happened in Retrospective: What has happened in

earlier periods?earlier periods? Prospective: What are projections for the Prospective: What are projections for the

future?future?(reference: Anand and Sen 1994)(reference: Anand and Sen 1994)

Goalposts: two alternativesGoalposts: two alternatives

1.1. Use the actually occurring rangeUse the actually occurring range

oror

2.2. Use predefined maximum and Use predefined maximum and minimum valuesminimum values

Goalposts: actual range or Goalposts: actual range or predefined?predefined?

IndicatorIndicator Occuring range Occuring range [1991,2001][1991,2001]

Independent min Independent min and maxand max

Agricultural Agricultural dependencydependency

6,6% - 94,7%6,6% - 94,7% 0% - 100%0% - 100%

Agricultural Agricultural labourerslabourers

0,06% - 88,25%0,06% - 88,25% 0% – 100%0% – 100%

LiteracyLiteracy 13,7% - 95,7%13,7% - 95,7% 10%– 100%10%– 100%

Female literacyFemale literacy 4,2% - 93,97%4,2% - 93,97% 0% – 100%0% – 100%

””Missing girls”Missing girls” 43,2% - 48,5%*43,2% - 48,5%* 40,0% - 48,5%*40,0% - 48,5%*

Normalization: range (2) vs predefined max and min (3)Normalization: range (2) vs predefined max and min (3)

Normalization: range (2) vs predefined max and min (3)Normalization: range (2) vs predefined max and min (3)- impact on ranks- impact on ranks

WeightingWeighting

We gave equal weighting to the three We gave equal weighting to the three components of adaptive capacity; and components of adaptive capacity; and an equal weighting between adaptive an equal weighting between adaptive capacity and sensitivity/exposure. capacity and sensitivity/exposure. Other weightings were tested, but Other weightings were tested, but without a priori reasons for weighting without a priori reasons for weighting one index higher than another, it was one index higher than another, it was considered best to keep it simple.considered best to keep it simple.

ClassificationClassification

Can exaggerate non-significant Can exaggerate non-significant differencesdifferences

Can hide significant differencesCan hide significant differences

Data distribution for social Data distribution for social index, 1991index, 1991

Data distribution for social index, 1991 – Data distribution for social index, 1991 – natural breaks (minimized variance within groups)natural breaks (minimized variance within groups)

Data distribution for social index, 1991 –Data distribution for social index, 1991 –quantiles (groups are equal size, 20% of pop)quantiles (groups are equal size, 20% of pop)

Classification: natural breaks (nb) vs Classification: natural breaks (nb) vs quantiles (qnt)quantiles (qnt)

ExerciseExercise

We will map climate change vulnerability in We will map climate change vulnerability in India, using different weightings and India, using different weightings and classifications. The first objective of the classifications. The first objective of the exercise is to explore how sensitive or exercise is to explore how sensitive or robust vulnerability maps are to such robust vulnerability maps are to such decisions. The second objective is to change decisions. The second objective is to change the composition of the index and try to the composition of the index and try to create a map that depicts the eastern coast create a map that depicts the eastern coast of India (including Orissa) as highly of India (including Orissa) as highly vulnerable.vulnerable.

Files:Files:

Excel spreadsheet with district-level Excel spreadsheet with district-level indicators for India;indicators for India;

Shape files for district and state Shape files for district and state boundaries; boundaries;

The following questions The following questions should be answered:should be answered:

How sensitive is the map to weighting How sensitive is the map to weighting and classification methods?and classification methods?

How easily can indicators be How easily can indicators be manipulated to show whatever you manipulated to show whatever you want to show?want to show?

What are the policy or political What are the policy or political consequences of these findings?consequences of these findings?

How can we prevent misuse of How can we prevent misuse of vulnerability maps?vulnerability maps?

GISGIS

Introduction to ArcGISIntroduction to ArcGIS

1. measuring vulnerability

Documents

vulnerability measures

measure vulnerability

opposite of vulnerability

vulnerability analysis

degree of climate stress

climate problemv

expected climate stimuli

political exposure