1 nanoscale science and our energy future the global energy challenge john stringer epri palo alto,...

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Nanoscale Science and Our Energy Future

The Global Energy Challenge

John Stringer

EPRI

Palo Alto, California, USA

June 24th 2004

2 Copyright © 2003 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Spencer Abraham at Chatham House:

“Of particular concern is the fact that we expect to see the demand for energy, and especially electric energy accelerate in the large population centers of the Third World. There, we will see a requirement for large – very large – power production facilities as increased population joins with a growing world economy to put more and more stress on energy supplies.”


Some Additional Points:

The increasing demand for oil and natural gas associated with the growth in countries such as China and India.

A “host of environmental challenges”

“Finding a path to meet the dual challenges of energy security and environmental stewardship will require global cooperation.”


Basic Research Needs to

Assure a Secure Energy Future

Dr. John Stringer, EPRI, Chair

Dr. Linda Horton, ORNL, Co-Chair

Workshop: October 21 – 25, 2002

Energy Biosciences Follow-up Workshop: January 13-14, 2003


The Global Energy Challenge

• Two aspects:– (a) The need to improve the standard of living of

a growing world population within the next half century;

– (b) The need to ensure that this improvement is sustainable.

Is it reasonable to assume that the phrase ‘improve the standard of living’ infers the need to supply more energy; and if so, how much?


Annual GNP/capita

Annual kWh/capita

International CollaborationGlobal R&D, global investment,

global peace, global technologies

AmenitiesEducation, recreation, the environment,

intergenerational investment

Basic Quality of LifeLiteracy, life expectancy, sanitation, infantmortality, physical security, social security

SurvivalFood, water, shelter, minimal

health services

Source: Chauncey Starr

105 104

104 103

103 102

Distinctions Among Four Distinctions Among Four Social ConditionsSocial Conditions


Trends in Per Capita Trends in Per Capita Electricity ConsumptionElectricity Consumption

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Year

Per

Cap

ita

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

103 k

Wh

)

U.S.

World

Developing Countries


World Population, 1850-2100

Billion

Developing Countries

12

10

8

6

4

0

2

1850 1900 2050 21001950 2000

REFs

Source: WEC/IIASA-Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond

OECD


Access to Electricity


Increasing Energy Efficiency

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

60

50

40

30

20

10

E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%)

E/GNP RatioElectricity

Fraction

Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et. Al., 1990


• Adding 200,000 MW/yr

• Investing $100-150 billion/yr

It’s equivalent to:

• < 5 years of current world automobile engine production

• Less than 0.3% of world GDP

• Less than the world spends on cigarettes, etc.

It can and must be done!

What 10,000 GW of Global Generating Capacity Means


Efficiency

• Generally, it is known that the material wealth of a nation, as measured by, for example, the per capita gross domestic product (GDP), is correlated more or less with the per capita energy consumption.

• However, over the last thirty years, the GDP per capita in the US has approximately doubled, while the per capita energy use has remained virtually constant (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration).

• This is a remarkable result, and it shows that very significant benefits can accrue from improvements in overall efficiency.


Efficiency

• Overall efficiency, in this case, refers to the efficiency of the processes by which energy is transformed to GDP.

• This could be as a result of improvements in the energy conversion processes, from primary source to usable form;

• Or improvements in the conversion of the received energy to GDP by (for example) manufacturing process optimization;

• But it could also be a result of a change in the overall economic structure, leading to a change in the energy intensity of the overall product mix, for example from manufacturing industries to service industries.


Efficiency

•The point of this paper is that increasing the fraction of the energy available to people that is electricity is a good thing in terms of living standards.

•We also believe that it results in a direct improvement in the energy-to-GDP ratio.

•From the ‘electricity point of view’, the efficiencies of concern are then those of generation, of delivery, and of end use.


Efficiency of Electricity Generation

• In the U.S., and in the world as a whole, most electricity is generated by highly efficient dynamos, driven by steam turbines, with the steam being produced by heat from the combustion of fuels or the heat of nuclear fission.

•A significant fraction is generated by systems in which the dynamo is driven by combustion turbines.

•In either case, the conversion efficiency from the hot source to electricity is of the order of 36 – 38%


Efficiency of Electricity Generation

• In the U.S., the primary energy used for the generation of electricity in 2000 was 36 EJ.

•The total amount of electricity generated was 13.27 EJ.

•The overall efficiency was thus 36.9%

•This is from a total primary energy usage in the US of 102 EJ

(EJ is axajoule, and 1 EJ = 0.95 Quad)


Improvements in Generation Efficiency

•There has been considerable research on the improvement of generation efficiency in recent years worldwide. In the U.S., much of this has been led by D.O.E. In brief, these are the lines of approach:

– Improvements in maximum cycle temperature in the heat engines

– Introduction of “combined cycles”

– Non-heat engine approaches such as fuel cells.


Efficiency of Power Delivery

•The delivery of electricity from the generator to the user involves two principal steps:

– Transmission, at high voltages; and

– Distribution, at low voltages.

The losses are principally

Line losses, due to the resistance of the line; and

Transformer losses.



•Generally, line losses in transmission are fairly small: a typical distance for transmission in the U.S. is about 250 – 300 miles.

•However, power is transmitted 1000 miles from the hydroelectric generators in the Northwest to Los Angeles, and the line loss might be 8-10%.

•Transmission transformers are relatively efficient: the best achieve losses of 0.6%; 1% is typical.

•Distribution transformers are less efficient: the ‘pole-top’ small transformers have losses of 2-3%



•The remedies here are moving towards solid-state components – the “Robust” Transmission Grid.

•The Flexible AC Transmission System – FACTS

•Power Electronics-Based Controllers

•Solid-State Circuit Breaker at Transmission Voltages

•The Power-Electronics Transformer



•The issue of Transmission Line losses and reliability is related to the limits of the conductor itself.

•The power that can be carried is related to the temperature of the conductor.

• It sags as its temperature rises; the limit is determined by the possibility of its arcing to ground.

•This is a nanotechnology opportunity


Efficiency of End Use

•This is a much more difficult topic, because the efficiencies are very specific to the end use.

•Two major uses are refrigeration and lighting.

•Refrigeration. In 1975, a typical refrigerator used about 1750 kWh/year; in 2000 the figure was 500 kWh/year

•Lighting consumes some 20% of the U.S. electricity output. Incandescent lights have an efficiency of 5 – 6%. Fluorescent lights achieve perhaps 25%. LEDs may achieve 50%.


Efficiency of End Use

•Both of these examples of improvements have been going on for years, with largely conventional evolutionary developments.

•However, nanotechnology is now presenting us with the possibility of major leaps forward: the developments in quantum dot LEDs for lighting, and the potential improvement in thermoelectric devices as a result of quantum effects on the transport properties.


A Major Problem for Electricity

•Electricity cannot easily be stored.

•As a result, it has to be generated when it is needed.

•This leads to important problems in the methods of producing electricity.

• It also results in major difficulties in the event of an unexpected equipment malfunction.


Generation Mix

• Responsiveness of generation options must match dispatch needs:

– Base Load

– Mid term

– ‘Spinning Reserve’

– ‘Peakers’

• Dispatcher sends out power on a ‘merit order’, based on cost.

•Reliability is a key requirement


Net Electricity Generation in the US by Fuel, 1999

Energy Source Net Generation, EJ

Industry Total Utility Non-Utility

Coal 6.77 6.36 0.41Petroleum 0.43 0.31 0.12Natural Gas 2.03 1.06 0.97Nuclear Fission 2.62 2.62 0.01Hydroelectric 1.1 1.06 0.05Other 0.32 0.01 0.31

Total, All Sources 13.27 11.42 1.87

Note: 1 EJ (exajoule) = 278 billion kWhThe total U. S. industry capability was 0.786 billion kWOperating that for 1 year would generate 24.77 EJThe overall industry utilization factor is thus 53.6%


Projected Change in Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 1996-2020

Source: Energy Information Administration/ International Energy Outlook 1999

0 50 100 150 200 250

Developing Asia

Central and South America

Africa

Middle East

Western Europe

Industrial Asia

North America

EE/FSU

206

186

125

114

55

52

39

28

Percent


The New Challenge for Electricity – the Digital Society

•Electricity supply is regulated so far as frequency and voltage are concerned.

•Today, reliabilities of approximately 99.99% are achieved – ‘Four 9s’.

• It is thought that the digital society may require an assured supply with a reliability of Six 9s – some say better than this.


Sensors and Controls for the Delivery System

•Ensuring reliability for the power delivery system to enable the power supply for the digital society requires great improvements in the sensors and control systems.

• ‘Smart’ systems are required, ideally dispersed systems through the enormous T&D sytem.

•This is a major nanotechnology opportunity.


Sensors

• There are 1400 essential sensors in a coal-fired utility boiler.

• As many as 4000 sensors in modern boilers for monitoring materials condition and optimizing conditions.

• That’s just the steam-raising part of the system!

The way that utilities are tied together makes sensors especially important. Unlike most industrial and commercial sectors that are made up of relatively small units (aircraft, automobiles), the electric power industry is a vast, interconnected enterprise. It is a far-flung grid, fed and drained continuously at variable rates, without any ‘accumulator’ components! Trouble at one location can affect other, even remote, portions of the system.


The Environmental Challenges of Electrification - Coal

•SO2

•NOx

•Particulates

•Mercury

•CO2



•The industry has developed considerable experience in controlling emissions.

•However, the increased requirements for control has demanded sensitive sensor systems capable of operating reliably over long times in very severe environments.

•This is a major opportunity for nanotechnology.



•The new and challenging issue is CO2.


World Coal Consumption by Region, 1970-2020

Source: Energy Information Administration/ International Energy Outlook 1999

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

History Projections

Developing

Industrialized

EE/FSU

5

4

3

2

1

0

Billion Short Tons


The Overall Options

• If we are to achieve these national and global goals, with the additional requirements for global sustainability and national strategic security, together with a reduction in global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, it is obvious we are faced with major challenges.

• The options are:

– Decarbonization of fuels

– Moves to non- CO2 emitting options

– Capture and sequestration of CO2

• In fact, all these options must be pursued!


The Environmental Challenges of Electrification – Nuclear Fission

•Radioactive Waste


The Environmental Challenges of Electrification - Hydroelectricity

•Environmental Damage from Flooding

•Fish populations

•Overall Water Control (Agriculture)

•River Transport


Conclusions

• The global electric supply system is a major component of the improvement of the quality of life of humanity in the 21st century.

• It is far and away the largest engineering – and social! – structure one can imagine.

• Achieving this over the very short time scale of 30 – 50 years is an enormous challenge.

• Nanotechnology will make a major contribution: but as yet, it is far from clear what that will be.


Saudi saying:

"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane.

His son will ride a camel."


Some Useful Conversions

• 1 short ton of coal: Energy content 21,400,000 Btu

• 1 Barrel of Crude Oil: 5,800,000 Btu

• 1 Cubic Foot of Natural Gas: 1,027 Btu

• 1 Kilowatt-hour of electricity 3,412 Btu

• 1 Btu = 1,055.06 joules;

• 1 short ton = 0.908 tonne

• 1 Quad = 1015 Btu; or 4.67 x 107 tons of coal;

or 17.23 x 107 barrels of oil

• 1 exajoule = 1018 joules

• 1 Quad = 1.055 exajoules

1 nanoscale science and our energy future the global energy challenge john stringer epri palo alto,...

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