1

OverviewCommunity Health Modeling

Working Group Meeting

Tony Servin, P.E.Modeling Support Section

Planning and Technical Support Division

May 6, 2003

Air Resources Board

California Environmental Protection AgencyEJVOverview_050603.ppt

2

Overview of the Day

• Overview of the Neighborhood Assessment Program and Cumulative Assessment

• Technical issues to be studied with the Wilmington Protocol

• Regional modeling results for Southern California • Method to assess cumulative impacts at a

neighborhood scale anywhere in the state• Open discussion• Your feedback

3

Policies & Actions

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Environmental Justice Policies and Actions

• Adopted by the California Air Resources Board,

December 2001

• Policy V

“It shall be the ARB’s policy to assess,

consider, and reduce cumulative emissions,

exposure, and health risks when developing

and implementing our programs”

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Environmental Justice Specific Actions

• Regional maps showing estimated cancer health

risks (e.g., ASPEN)

• Regional maps showing air pollution emission

sources (e.g., CHAPIS)

• Develop tools for assessments of cumulative

emissions, exposure, and health risk on a

neighborhood scale and provide maps showing

the results at the neighborhood level. (New

Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps)

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Investigative Work

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Statewide ModelingProtocol

Wilmington ModelingProtocol

NAP Modeling Approach

Cumulative Risk Assessment Tool

Emissions andMeteorology

MicroscaleModeling

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

Barrio LoganModelingProtocol

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Updated NAPModelingProtocol

Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Model Evaluation Component Proposed Product

Independent Scientific Peer Review

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Plan

• Conduct refined air quality modeling

simulations of toxic emissions for

cumulative sources

– Microscale (Neighborhood scale) Distances

– Regional Distances

• Bridge these actions to an approach

feasible for any location in the State

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Neighborhood Assessment Program Approach

Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Proposed Product

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

Microscale (Neighborhood)

Modeling

Emissions andMeteorology

10

Pilot Studies

• Microscale - Estimate neighborhood cumulative air pollutant risk for two case studies– Barrio Logan

– Wilmington

• Regional - Estimate regional air toxic risk for Southern California

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Emissions and Meteorology

Status

• Emission Inventory Development– Regional (Southern California only)– Microscale (Barrio Logan)– Microscale (Wilmington under development)

• Meteorological Development– Regional (Southern California only)– Microscale (Barrio Logan)– Microscale (Wilmington under development)

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

12

Microscale Modeling Barrio Logan - Pilot Study

• Enhanced Emission Inventory• Evaluating Performance of Four

Microscale Dispersion Models• Obtained Preliminary Model

Results (50 m resolution)• Conducting Model Evaluation

(Toxics & Tracer Monitoring)

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

13

Microscale Modeling Wilmington - Pilot Study

• Identified in MATES-II • Freeways, Refineries, Port, Local Traffic,

Manufacturing, Local Facilities• Under Development

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

(source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12)

Wilmington

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Regional Modeling Southern California - Pilot Study

• SCOS domain (4 km grid resolution)• Larger than MATES II

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

San Diego

Riverside

Los AngelesSan BernardinoVentura

Orange

Mexico

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Integrated Results

Microscale Impacts

+ _Regional Impacts

Total Impacts

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

Careful to understand double counting of emissions

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Risk AssessmentPreliminary Results - Barrio Logan• Microscale only • All toxics• Inhalation only

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

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th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha lation R isk(per M illion)

0

100

200

500

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

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Risk Assessment (cont.)

Preliminary Barrio Logan Findings• Diesel PM is major contributor to

inhalation risk (DPM non-measurable)

• Facility risk similar to HRA risk• Microscale model generally

underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial

• Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

MicroscaleModeling

Emissions andMeteorology

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Verification of Model Results

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Model Performance

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

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Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation– Iterative process

• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis

– Begin with most sensitive pollutants to risk (e.g., diesel PM and gasoline stations)

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

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Tracer Studies• Needed to establish Microscale

model performance• Logan Memorial (Winter & Summer)

– Preliminary Results– Contractor analyzing data

• Wilmington under development

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

22

Toxic Monitoring

• Logan Memorial Ambient– 17 months (Oct. 1999 - Feb. 2001)

• Barrio Logan Intensive– Special study (Five sites)– Two weeks of data (Dec./Jan.

2001/2002)– Data being analyzed

• Wilmington Ambient– 13 months (May 2001 - July 2002)

• Wilmington Intensive– Planning stages

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

23

Regional Model Performance Evaluation

• Procedures well established for episodic hourly concentrations of O3

• No established metric for 24-hr or annual average concentrations of toxics

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

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External Review

• Working Group Evaluations– 55 participants on mailing list– Govt. (District, US-EPA, OEHHA)– Independent Scientists– Environmental Groups– Industry Representatives– Last meeting Sept. 12, 2002

• Independent Scientific Peer Review Group for Barrio Logan Protocol– Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA– Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis– Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc.– Dr. Akula Venkatram, UC Riverside

Model Evaluation

• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation

Input Data Requirements

Model Strengthsand Limitations

Independent Scientific Peer Review

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Continue to Technical Issues Investigated in

Wilmington Study