1. overview of pandem project - máire connolly...dirk brockmann, dirk helbing, science 13 dec 2013:...
TRANSCRIPT
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H2020H2020H2020H2020----DSRDSRDSRDSR----4444----2014201420142014
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 652868
Overview of the PANDEM project
Máire Connolly, PANDEM coordinator
National University of Ireland Galway
Outline
l Current context
l What are the threats?
l Scope of PANDEM
l Outcome of PANDEM
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Influenza pandemics in 20th/21st Century
H1N1 H2N2 H3N2
1918: “Spanish Flu” 1957: “Asian Flu” 1968: “Hong Kong Flu”
40-50 million deaths 1-4 million deaths 1-4 million deaths
H1N1
284,000 deaths
2009: H1N1 Pandemic
Spread of 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Current context
• Decision 1082/2013/EU on Serious cross border threats to health
• European Court of Auditors – importance of protecting EU citizens from pandemics and other serious cross border threats to health, 2016
• OECD’s Future Global Shocks - cascading risks that become active threats as they spread across global systems – pandemic major threat
• WHO – new Health Emergencies programme
• World Bank working on financing pandemic preparedness
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What are the threats?
l Novel strain of known virus eg H1N1
influenza virus
l Newly identified species or strains eg
Zika, Ebola, SARS, Nipah…....
What are the threats?
l Poor biosafety leading to accidental
release from a laboratory
l Bioterrorism - deliberate release of a
biological agent e.g. anthrax
l Micro-organisms found to be resistant to
antimicrobial agents– MDR-TB, MRSA
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Source: Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis
Prof Stephen S Morse et al Lancet; Volume 380, No. 9857, p1956–1965, 1 December 2012
PANDEM – Topic call DRS-04 – Specific challenge
• Pandemics pose a major health and security threat to EU citizens
• Improving capacity-building is key to fight epidemics and pandemics
• EU must increase its efforts to improve domestic and global risk assessment, surveillance, communication capability and governance
• Reducing disease transmission through public education is also crucial
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The origins of PANDEM…..
• Initial work on H2020 call in December 2013
• At the same time, Ebola was emerging in West Africa
• Late detection and ineffective initial containment measures led to a full scale global emergency
• Weaknesses in surveillance, communications and governance systems at national, EU & global level
• Poorly coordinated international response lacked the tools and systems to control the outbreak
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PANDEMPANDemic risk and Emergency Management
• Horizon 2020: Secure Societies Work Programme
• Phase I demo project
• Multi-disciplinary collaboration of seven institutions
• Project budget - €1.3M
• Project duration - 18 months started Sept 2015
• Project areas:
• Surveillance
• Communication
• Governance
Objectives of PANDEM project
• Review and assess current best practice for pandemic preparedness and response in three core areas
• Identify major gaps/improvement needs and research priorities
• Identify innovative solutions for improved technologies, systems and capacity that would reduce health, security, environmental and economic impact of future pandemics
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PANDEM work approach
WP6NUIG
Demonstration
concepts
Research and
training priorities
Road Map for
Phase II
WP1 - NUIG
Project Management & Co-ordination
WP2 FoHM
Threat analysis
Risk assessment
Surveillance
Best practice
User needs
Research priorities
WP3 IGS
Communication
Public
information
Best practice
User needs
Research priorities
WP4 LSHTM
Governance
Legal
frameworks
Best practice
User needs
Research priorities
WP5WHO
Integrated
solution
specification
Tools/systems
improvement
needs
Integrated gap
analysis
WP7 - NUIGAwareness Raising & Dissemination
Methodology of PANDEM
• Large-scale pandemic of sudden onset
• Review of tools, systems and practices at Member States, European Union and global level
• Review of previous EU research projects
• Key informant interviews
• Case studies: EU countries, USA and EU response to Ebola outbreak
• Expert workshops in Brussels: February and September 2016
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Source: The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena
Dirk Brockmann, Dirk Helbing, Science 13 Dec 2013: Vol. 342, Issue 6164, pp. 1337-1342
• Disease spread analysed via the “effective distance” rather than geographical distance, two locations connected by airline flights are effectively close
• Applied to predict disease arrival times or disease source
PANDEM: SURVEILLANCE
PANDEM: Communications
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PANDEM: Diagnostics
THANK YOU!