1 paul clayton u.s. meat export federation global beef trade outlook and opportunities consolidated...
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1
Paul ClaytonU.S. Meat Export Federation
Global Beef Trade Outlook Global Beef Trade Outlook and Opportunitiesand Opportunities
Consolidated Beef ProducersConsolidated Beef Producers
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The next 25 to 50 years
• Population
• Resource management
• Technology
• Knowledge
• Economic integration
• Conflict
• Governance
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Future Global Beef DemandFAO Beef Consumption Estimates
Source: FAO
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mill
ion
me
tric
to
ns
1997/1999 2015 est 2030 est
+22%+44%
% change from base year
13 million mt every 15 years
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Importer YTD 2005 Thru%
change
U.S. 846,164 Aug +4.0%
Japan 357,546 Aug +14.6%
Russia 249,073 Jun +27.3%
E.U. 304,239 Jul +9.2%
Mexico 177,639 Jul +30%
S. Korea 127,086 Aug +11.6%
Others 711,990 Jul +8.7%
TOTAL 2,482,672 Jul +7.4%
2005 Beef Import DEMAND - YTDBeef/BVM
Source: Global Trade Atlas, not including intra-EU trade
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Value of Beef ExportsItem Domestic
UseExports
(mt)Extra Value
(million US$)
Short Ribs Trim 121,000 $388
Tongue Pet food 35,000 $328
Outside Skirt Trim 50,500 $166
Short Plate Trim 163,000 $63
Chuck Eye Roll As Is 71223 $43
Intestine Render 32,000 $35
Tripe Render 38,500 $35
Rib Finger Trim 14,000 $27
Chuck Flap Tail As Is 9,548 $26
Ribeye Roll As Is 18,212 $24
USMEF Estimate,
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Value of Beef Exports
• Total Exports equal $12.45/cwt
• Top Ten Items Represent 65% of all Beef Exports
• 60% of Value Derived from Muscle Meats, 40% from Variety Meats
• Total Extra Value: $1.2 billion per year
• $2.79/cwt per Head Slaughtered, $33.47/Head
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What is the Market Potential?
World Population in billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
World Per Capita Income Growth Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
19
70
=1
00
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Benefits of U.S. Red Meat Trade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
'60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00
mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns
Global Red Meat Consumption
U.S. Consumption
Source: FAO
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World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
'50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00
Billion
0123456789
10
'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50
Billion
HistoricalHistorical
Projected
Double 1980 by 2050
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Growing Agricultural Trade• The world’s arable land is not
distributed around in the world in the same proportions as is population. (No way for Asia to be self-sufficient)
• With population growth, urbanization and broad-based economic development in LDCs, more of world food production will move through trade.
• Agriculture in most LDCs is underperforming relative to its potential.
• Greater trading opportunities for LDCs would accelerate their economic growth and expand their food consumption faster than production, increasing their food imports.
0123456789
10
%
China Korea Russia U.S. Mexico Japan Canada
2004 (f) 2005 (f)
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Global GDP and Global Red Meat Consumption
1971-2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 10 20 30 40Global Red Meat Consumption (MMT)
Glo
bal
GD
P (
Tri
llio
n U
S$)
Source: FAO, World Economic Bank
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Global Meat Consumption- metric tons -
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
mill
ion
met
ric
ton
s
BeefFishPorkPoultry
U.S. Consumption
Source: FAO
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Global Meat Consumption- Per capita in Pounds -
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Per
Cap
ita
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n -
Po
un
ds Beef
FishPorkPoultry
U.S. Consumption
Source: FAO
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U.S. Production as a % of Global Consumption
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00
BeefPorkLamb
Source: FAO
Global Consumption is outpacing U.S. production
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U.S. “Global Market Share”
99%
U.S. Beef Exports
1%
U.S. Pork Exports
0%
Global Meat Consumption
outside of the U.S.
Source: FAO, USDA
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Global Meat Consumption
Source: FAO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
mil
lio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s
1997/1999 2015 2030
Poultry
Pork
Ovine
Bovine
+34%
+108%
+30%
+57%
+22% +44%
+22%+64%
% change from base year
+29%
+67%
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Global Meat Consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
mil
lio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s
1997/1999 2015 2030
Industrial Countries
Developing Countries
Source: FAO
+56% +113%
+15%
+24%
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
19
60
= 1
00
USAEUNon US/EU
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World Beef Exporters
U.S.4%
EU31%
Canada7%
N. Zealand7%
Argentina7%
Australia16%
Brazil16%
Others12%
Source: Global Trade Atlas
Australia
U.S.
S. America
EUCanada
New Zealand
Other29.3%
17.5%
15.5%
15.8%
7.5%
6.8%
7.5%(Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay)
2001
2004
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World Tradein Meat as a Percent of Production
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Beef Sheep Pork Poultry
Per
cen
t of
Pro
du
ctio
n E
xpor
ted1970198019902000
Source: FAO
Brazil
Australia
India
New Zealand
Argentina
CanadaUruguayEU-25
U.S.
Others
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 f 2005 f
Global Beef Market Share
Source: USDA Estimates
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Competition is Fierce'Other' U.S. Beef Markets
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
(1-1
1)
MT
Others
Senegal
Bulgaria
S. Africa
Turkey
Gabon
Angola
Cote d'Ivoire
Romania
Global Beef Exporters by Country
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
Brazi
lAust
ralia
India
N. Zea
land
Argen
tina
Canad
aUru
guayEU-2
5
U.S.
Ukrai
neO
ther
s
1,0
00
MT
CW
E
199920002001200220032004 (f)2005 (f)
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Top 10 Beef Export Markets in Common2003
U.S. Australia Brazil1 Japan U.S. Chile
2 Mexico Japan U.K.
3 S. Korea S. Korea Russia
4 Canada Taiwan Egypt
5 Russia Canada U.S.
6 Egypt Indonesia Hong Kong
7 Hong Kong Malaysia Saudi Arabia
8 Taiwan Philippines Netherlands
9 Indonesia Russia Italy
10 China China Iran
% 95% 93% 73%
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Self-Sufficiency Dependence on Exports
Beef• New Zealand• Australia• Uruguay• Canada*• Argentina• Brazil• U.S.*
592%
265%
257%
131%
123%
122%
98%
Pork• Canada• Brazil• EU-25• U.S.
180%
128%
106%
104%
*U.S. – 2003, *Canada 2002, Others - 2004
Source: USDA/FAS PSD Tables
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Brazil314 million
farmable acres
151 million farmed
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U.S. / BrazilMeat Comparison
PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION EXPORTSEXPORTS
Mil MTMil MT 20022002 19971997 ChangeChange %% 20022002 19971997 ChangeChange %%
Beef
US 11.8 11.7 0.1 1% 1.2 0.98 0.4 26%
Brazil 7.0 6.0 1.0 17% 0.8 0.2 0.6 300%
Pork
US 8.7 7.8 0.9 12% 0.7 0.5 0.2 40%
Brazil 2.3 1.5 0.8 53% 0.4 0.1 0.3 300%
Poultry
US 14.4 12.3 2.1 17% 2.9 2.1 0.8 38%
Brazil 7.0 4.5 2.5 56% 1.4 0.7 0.7 100%
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Uruguay
• World Exporter– FMD Under Control
• US Quota 20,000mt– 2005 imports 167,000mt over quota (26.4%
duty)– Price per pound as much as $.75 under
other importing countries
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Australia
U.S. Quota 2003 2004 2005
378,214mt 379,000mt 379,000mt 307,000mt
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US Beef Export vs. Import Summary
2003 Beef/BVM Exports2003 Beef/BVM Imports
2004 Beef/BVM Exports2004 Beef/BVM Imports
Net
2003 Exports-Imports ($1.66-$1.21/lb)2004 Exports-Imports ($1.18-$1.37/lb)
$3.9 billion $2.6 billion
$0.7 billion $3.7 billion
$0.45/lb($0.19)/lb
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2004 Pork Export Premiums - Top 10 -
CutMT
exported
Export Prem. / pound
Export Premium
Bellies 61,600 $0.45 $ 61,080,099
Loins 129,485 $0.17 48,147,688
Butts 40,428 $0.43 37,929,942
Tenderloin 25,138 $0.52 28,870,885
Picnics 168,855 $0.06 23,453,561
Bungs 11,871 $0.46 12,107,754
Feet 50,732 $0.07 8,178,401
Tongues 20,484 $0.16 7,232,334
Skins 42,891 $0.07 6,843,477
Jowls 15,990 $0.10 $ 3,659,396
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Exports Outpacing Imports
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Avian Influenza
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BSE LossesTop 10 Exported Cuts
Source: USDA, USMEF
Pre BSE
Price 12/03
PostBSE
Price 12/04 Loss/lb
Lbs / Hd
Loss/Hd
AnnualLost
Value *Short plates $1.80 $ 0.71 $(1.09) 40.0 $43.60) $(1,155)Liver 0.35 0.10 ( .25) 11.0 (2.75) (72)Short ribs 2.37 0.71 (1.66) 5.0 (8.30) (219)Intestine 0.55 - 0.55) 7.5 (4.13) (109)Chuck roll 1.66 1.52 (0.14) 38.0 (5.32) (140)Tongues 4.25 0.70 (3.55) 3.5 12.43) (329)Skirt 3.11 1.8 (1.30) 7.0 (9.10) (241)Rib Fingers 2.45 0.51 (1.94) 4.0 (7.76) (206)Tripe 0.99 0.43 (0.56) 7.5 (4.20) (111)Hanging Tndr 2.00 0.85 (1.15) 2.5 (2.88) (76)
TOTAL 126 (100.46) $(2,662)
Or
$ (8.04) per cwt
* Based on USDA steer / hfr slaughter
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BSE Impact on Japan Market
Japan Meat Consumption
Poultry15%
Pork17%
Fish60%
US Beef2%
Beef6%
… but not to Japanese meat supplies
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Japan Beef Supplies
1. Eating less, yet paying more
2. Losers: N. America, domestic industry
2003 2005 (f) % change
Consumption (mt) 903,781 810,300 -10.3%
Expenditures (yen) ¥ 6,639 ¥ 6,723 +1.3%
Imports (mt) 520,096 483,600 -7.0%
–Australia 289,123 435,000 +50.5%
–N.Z. 18,051 47,600 +163.7%
Production (mt) 353,695 348,600 -1.4%
Source: ALIC, USMEF
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Beef Export Premiums
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80
$ / Head
ShortPlate
Tongue Skirt ShortRibs
Tripe
Dom. Price Without Exports Export Premium
Export premiums on these 5 cuts alone
represent $78 per head
Source: USMEF
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What is the function of Traceability, Source Verification
and/or Process Verification? • Control animal and zoonotic
diseases– Only need live animals procedures – FMD, BSE
• Food Safety – Chemical
• Antibiotics, Hormones, Pesticides• GMO
– Sanitary• Microbiology• GMP• Physical Risks: Needles
– Only need plant procedures • Recall procedures
• Commercial purposes– Branded Programs
• Source Verification– Identity Preservation– Information Exchange
• Genetics• Production Practices
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Traceability and Consumer Demand
Consumer Willingness to Pay
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Traceability Animal Welfare Food Safety All Attributes
Verifiable Attributes
Do
llars Beef
Ham
Dickson and Bailey, Meat Traceability: Are US consumers willing to pay for it? 2002
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Value Attributes
• Production – Genetics– Feed– Production Practices
• Animal Health• Feed• Animal Welfare
• Processing– Food Safety
Enhancements– Quality
Enhancements
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BrandsNatural Brands Store Brands Private Brands
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Marketing Value Attributes
Each of these product lines have traceable attributes. Some attributes must be traced back further in the production process.
Ribeye Striploin
Wal-Mart $7.48 $7.68
Wal-Mart Angus $12.03 $12.42
Cattlemen’s Collection $10.79 $10.99
Rancher’s Reserve $9.99 $11.49
Butcher’s Premium Angus $12.99 $11.49
Laura’s Lean All Natural $11.79
Coleman’s Natural Meats $16.99 $16.99
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Where Do We Go From Here?
• Australia beef checkoff changed to $5 per head (all international)
• Canada has roughly $60 million to invest in overseas market development
• Virtually all beef competitors have traceability in one form or another
• Global demand is rapidly growing– Shifts in consumption and production
• Trade is liberalization is expanding– Bilateral agreements increasing– U.S. is committed to pursuing FTA’s
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Where Do We Go From Here?
To compete globally:
• Focus on U.S. advantages:– Diversity, flexibility of programs, grain-fed
• Aggressively pursue trade and competition
• Embrace trade enhancing policies
• “Export-minded” mentality
• Promote agility and ingenuity
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In Summary
• Global beef demand is expanding– Population, incomes, globalization
• BSE has changed the way we do business• Participating in beef trade helps U.S. beef
– Increase profitability of industry– Participate globally– Invest in future markets– Maintain competitiveness
• Non-scientific trade barriers . . .