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Energy and Environment

H-Holger RognerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st CenturySaint Petersburg, Russian Federation

27 – 29 June 2013

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The energy tri-lemma

Energy security Supply security – Reliability - Access

Competiveness Generating costs – Finance - Affordability

Environmental considerations Climate change - Local and regional pollution

under mounting pressures from demand growth

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Nuclear power and the energy tri-lemma

Global energy demand is set to grow Nuclear power expands supply options

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Electricity demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TWh Developing countries

CISOECD

History Projection – IEA NP

Source: IEA, WEO 2012)

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Countries with the largest populationwithout access to electricity, 2010

Over 95% of those without electricity are in developing Asia or sub-Saharan Africa & nearly two-thirds are in just ten countries

Some 1 260 million people have no access to electricity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mill

ion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70% Developing Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cumulativeshare of globaltotal (right axis)

0

Indi

a

Bang

lade

sh

Nig

eria

Ethi

opia

Indo

nesia

DR C

ongo

Paki

stan

Tanz

ania

Keny

a

Uga

nda 0%

Source: IEA, WEO 2012)

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Link between poverty and electricity accessSource: UNDP – Human Development Report 2007/8

India

China

Nigeria Pakistan

Yemen

Indonesia

Mongolia

Egypt

Ethiopia

Bangladesh

Iran

Jordan

Philippines

Tanzania

Haiti

CambodiaKenya

Namibia

Sri Lanka

South Africa Peru

Thailand ArgentinaJamaica

Malaysia

Nicaragua

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Elec

tric

ity ac

cess

% of population below 2$ a day

OECD

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Nuclear power and the energy tri-lemma

Global energy demand is set to grow Nuclear power expands supply options

Environmental pressures are rising Nuclear power has low life-cycle GHG emissions

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Global energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario

Gt OECDNon-OECD

New PoliciesScenario

7 Gt

15 Gt

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Current PoliciesScenario

450 Scenario

71%

29%

70%

29%

CO2 emissions rise to 44.1 Gt in the Current Policies & 37 Gt in New Policies Scenario by 2035. 450 Scenarios require levels of 22.1 Gt

Source: IEA, WEO 2012)

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Mitigation – Role of nuclear power

Life cycle GHG emissions of different electricity generating options

Nuclear power: Very low life cycle GHG emissions make the technology a potent climate change mitigation option

[15][16] [15]

[13]

[8]

[4]Standard deviation

Mean

Min - Max

[sample size]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

hydro nuclear wind solarPV

bio-mass

storage

[16] [15]

[13]

[8]

[4]Standard deviation

Mean

Min - Max

[sample size]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

hydro nuclear wind solarPV

bio-mass

storage

gCO

2-eq

per k

Wh

[8]

[12][10]

[16]

[8]

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

lignite coal oil gas CCS

[8]

[12][10]

[16]

[8]

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

lignite coal oil gas CCS

gCO

2-eq

per k

Wh

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Nuclear power and the energy tri-lemma

Global energy demand is set to grow Nuclear power expands supply options

Environmental pressures are rising Nuclear power has low life-cycle GHG emissions

Energy supply security back on the political agenda Nuclear power contributes to energy security

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Nuclear power and energy security

Doubling of resource costs

Cost components in total generating costs at a 10% discount rate

Doubling of resource costs

Adapted from IEA/NEA 2010 and NEA 2003

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Nuclear Coal Coal CCS Gas CCGT Wind CSP

Capital Decommissioning O&M Fuel Resource 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nuclear Coal Gas

US$

/MW

h

Small fuel volumes Long refueling cycles Resource a small share in

generating costs

Uranium resources are plentiful

Base load technology

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Nuclear power and the energy tri-lemma

Global energy demand is set to grow Nuclear power expands supply options

Environmental pressures are rising Nuclear power has low life-cycle GHG emissions

Energy supply security back on the political agenda Nuclear power contributes to energy security

Reliable base load electricity at predictable and affordable costs for meeting MDGs Nuclear power offers stable and predictable generation costs based on low resource costs

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Range of levelized generating costs of new electricity generating capacities

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Nuclear

Coal

Coal (CCS)

Gas

Wind (onshore)

Wind (offshore)

Solar PV

Solar PV - stand alone

Solar Thermal

Hydro - large scale

Hydro - small scale

Biomass

Geothermal

US$/MWh

616

935

324

459

Source: NEA/IEA, 2010

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Impact of carbon prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Coal Coal CCS Gas CCGT

$/M

Wh

30$/t CO2

20$/t CO2

10$/t CO2

Base costs $/MWh

Nuclear low

Nuclear high

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Economics – Nuclear power

Nuclear power plants are cheap to operate

Stable & predictable generating costs

Long life time Supply security

(insurance premium) Low external costs (so

far no credit applied)

High upfront capital costs Finance Sensitive to interest rates Long lead times Long

payback periodsMarket risks Regulatory/policy risks

Advantages But…

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GWe

Historical development of global nuclear power generating capacity

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GWe

Slow down in the mid-1980s

• Oil price collapse• CCGT• Demand uncertainty• Market liberalization• Construction delays• Two digit interest rates

• Oil price collapse• CCGT• Demand uncertainty• Market liberalization• Construction delays• Two digit interest rates• Chernobyl accident

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GWe

Issues ahead

• Shale gas• Carbon capture & storage• New binding international

environmental agreement• Carbon prices • Market liberalization• Finance• Infrastructure readiness• Public acceptance• Regional approaches• Innovation

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Status global nuclear power – 26 June 2013

Status 26 June 2013

Units in Operation: 434370.5 GWe

Units under construction: 6965.3 GWe

Latin America0.8%

North America30.7%

Western Europe 30.7%

Eastern Europe/CIS

13.1%

South East Asia1.4%

Middle East0.2%

Far East22.0%

Africa0.5%

Latin America3.0%

North America5.2%

Western Europe

4.9%

Eastern Europe/CIS

18.3%

South East Asia8.4%

Middle East2.1%

Far East58.2%

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One size does not fit all

Countries differ with respect to Energy demand growth Alternatives Financing options Weighing risks and preferences

• accident risks, cheap electricity, air pollution, jobs, import dependence, climate change, air pollution

Benefits > risks or risks > benefits (perceived or real) Local conditions determine the optimal supply and

technology mix Nuclear power is not the cure-all solution for all energy

and environmental problems but it surely can be an integral component of any solution to the energy tri-lemma