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Results from the GRAPE Model

Atsushi KUROSAWAResearch and Development Division, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE)Shinbashi SY bldg., 1-14-2 Nishishinbashi, Minato, Tokyo 105-0003 JAPAN

Phone (+81) 3-3508-8894 / Fax (+81) 3-3501-1735 E-mail : kurosawa@iae.or.jp

Expert Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to Climate ChangeUK Met Office, Bracknell UK

September 25-27, 2002

The views are solely those of the individual author and do not represent organizational view of the Institute of Applied Energy

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Outline [1] GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE

[2] PHASE 2 RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY RUNS

[3] SUMMARY

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ENERGY

CLIMATE

IMPACT LAND USE

ECONOMY

CO2,CH4,N2O

(Fossil

Fuel)

Energy CostEnergy Trade

Carbon Trade

Biom

ass Energy

Atm

ospheric

Tem

perature

Lan

duse

Rel

ated

Cos

t

Fo

od T

rade

Carbon(Deforestation)

CH4(Livestock,Rice)

N2O(Fertilizer),etc

[1] GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE

4CLIMATE CHANGE

CO2

Em.

Ocean

CH4

Em.

N2OConc.

CH4

Conc.

CO2

Conc.Atmosphere

N2OEm.

Rice Field

Other GHGsEm.

Forest

Fos.FuelConsumption

ChemicalIndustry

FertilizedSoil

Livestock

Fos. Fuel Production

Concentration→ Rad. Forc.

Emissions

Rad.Forcing

TemperatureSources

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[2] PHASE 2 RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY RUNS # Formulation Emissions to Concentrations CO2 - Four Box model CH4,N2O – One Box model Concentrations to Rad. Forcings IPCC WGI TAR Rad. Forcings to Temp. Change & SLR Two Box model # Evaluation Period 10 year step

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# Sensitivity Run Past Emissions : EDGAR Future Emissions : IPCC SRES A2 Marker

Start End Case 1 1890 2000 - default Case 2 1990 2100 Case 3 1890 2100

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# Regional Contibution Assessment Example : Region A Contribution >>> Nature + Region A Emission

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

(Time)

(Em

issi

ons) Human Region D

Human Region CHuman Region BHuman Region ANature

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

(Time)

(Em

issi

ons) Human Region D

Human Region CHuman Region BHuman Region ANature

Start End

Definition of Contribution = (change of param. in regional calculation) / (change of param. in global calculation)

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# Cumulative Emissions

Relative Contribution to Cumulative CO2 Emissions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

case 1 case 2 case 3

International Bunker

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD90

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Relative Contribution to CO2 Concentration

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

case 1 case2 case3

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD90

# Concentrations

CO2 Concenrtation (case1)

250

300

350

400

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(ppm)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

CO2 Concentration (case2)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

(ppm)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

CO2 Concentration (case3)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1890

1920

1950

1980

2010

2040

2070

2100

(ppm)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

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Relative Contribution to Radiative Forcing

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

case 1 case2 case3

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD90

# Radiative Forcing

Radiative Forcing (case1)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(W/m2)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Radiative Forcing (case2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

(W/m2)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Radiative Forcing (case3)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1890

1920

1950

1980

2010

2040

2070

2100

(W/m2)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

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# Temperature Change

Relative Contribution to Global-Average Temperature Change

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

case 1 case2 case3

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD90

Temparature Change (case1)

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

(deg C)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Temparature Change (case2)

0

1

2

3

4

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

(deg C)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Temparature Change (case3)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1890

1920

1950

1980

2010

2040

2070

2100

(deg C)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

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# Sea Level Rise

Relative Contribution to Sea Level Rise (by Thermal Expansion)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

case 1 case2 case3

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD90

Sea Level Rise (Thermal Expansion, case1)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(m)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Sea Level Rise (Thermal Expansion, case2)

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(m)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

Sea Level Rise (Thermal Expansion, case3)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1890

1920

1950

1980

2010

2040

2070

2100

(m)

OECD90

REF

ASIA

ALM

WORLD

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# Strength of Non-Linearity -- Regional sum is not equal to 100%.Parameter Period (Reg.Sum) – (Global)

CO2 Conc. Past (case 1) -15%Future (case 2) -31%Past+Future (case 3) -3%

Rad Forcing Past -14%Future -37%Past+Future 25%

Temp Past 5%Future -31%Past+Future 25%

SLR Past 39% Future 31%

Past+Future 30%

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[3] SUMMARY

# Strong non-linearity is observed. # Treatment of natural emission?

# Historical evaluation start date should be 1760 as default value since this period is considered as the beginning of human interventions.

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Thank you for your kind attention.