1 telecommunication services & latest developments in regulatory & institutional frameworks...
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1
Telecommunication Services & Latest Developments in Regulatory & Institutional
FrameworksSession 1: Trends in Infrastructure Services
UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, Geneva
Mr. Houlin Zhao
Deputy Secretary-General, ITU
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
2
Telecom Infrastructure Services Telecom Infrastructure Services
& Regulatory Frameworks& Regulatory Frameworks
1) First wave of regulatory reform
2) Telecom Markets on the Move
3) Convergence &
transition to IP
4) Conclusions
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 3
First Wave of Regulatory Reform - AimsFirst Wave of Regulatory Reform - Aims1) Overseeing the introduction of competition
& curbing anti-competitive behaviour
2) Safeguarding social interests which the market may
be unable to meet (e.g. market failures, externalities)
- including universal service
3) Consumer protection
4) Establishing ground rules over common resources
(spectrum, numbering & addresses).
4
First wave of regulatory reformFirst wave of regulatory reform
Privately-owned fixed-line incumbents in %, by region, 2009
Growth of Regulators, worldwide 2009
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.
14
43
86
106
124137
148 153
1990 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009
Regulatory agencies, world (cumulative)
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
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Competition in selected ICT services, 2009Competition in selected ICT services, 2009
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
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Telecom markets on the moveTelecom markets on the move
Growth in ICTs, 1998-2009
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators DatabaseInternational Telecommunication Union – March 2010
Strong growth in mobile & 3G telephonyStrong growth in mobile & 3G telephony
5 bn total cellular subscribers, 1 bn mobile broadband subscribers in 2010.
6.5 bn total cellular mobile subscribers, of which 43% 3G in 2014.
Source: ITU (left); Morgan Stanley, Ovum (right).
Mobile subscribers (total & 3G) 2007-2014
3'4133'909
4'5875'024
5'567 5'8426'179 6'456
0
1'000
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3G OtherGlobal Mobile BB Subscribers
15
11
8
5.6
0.51.7
3.2
-
100200
300
400
500600
700
800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s
0
24
6
8
1012
14
16
Mobile BB subscribers 3G % mobile
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
Mobile broadband overtook fixed broadband Mobile broadband overtook fixed broadband in 2008 & growing fastin 2008 & growing fast
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database.
Fixed & Mobile Broadband Subscribers
7
429
688
99153
3071
154
282
473
276
210
344403
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s Mobile BB subscribers
Fixed BB subs
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 8
Growth in countries with 3G networksGrowth in countries with 3G networks
Global growth in IMT-2000 countries, 2000-2009
4 9 18 26
1922
0
9
12
14
17
21
0
2124
33
36
38
42
149
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
nb c
ount
ries
Europe
CIS
Asia-Pacific
Arab States
Americas
Africa
219
3043
70
89
109
130
9
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
Network convergence driving regulatory reformNetwork convergence driving regulatory reform
• Network convergence enables convergence of services.• With the shift to NGNs, distinctions between network infrastructure,
technology, and the services and application become blurred.
From intermodal competition to intramodal competition
Transition from PSTN to all-IP
Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)
Converged services
From intermodal competition to intramodal competition
Transition from PSTN to all-IP
Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)
From intermodal competition to intramodal competition
Transition from PSTN to all-IP
Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)
From intermodal competition to intramodal competition
Transition from PSTN to all-IP
Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)
Converged services
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
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Growth of social networking services - TwitterGrowth of social networking services - Twitter
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
• Confidential information stored in a regular smartphone:
• Passwords
• Contacts
• Social networks
• App information
• Banking transactions
• Email account information
• GPS location and mobility patterns!
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A data / privacy time bomb?
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
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Second wave of regulatory reformSecond wave of regulatory reform
Independent converged regulators - From separate telecom & broadcasting regulatory institutions to
converged regulatory institutions with responsibility for content
• Licensing– From service licenses to general authorizations, unified & class licenses– From technology-specific licenses to technology-neutral licenses
• More flexible spectrum allocation– From administrative approach towards flexible spectrum allocation
practices (sharing, trading, etc.) for new access networks
• Network & bottleneck facilities– From exclusive ownership to passive & active infrastructure-sharing– Open access to network and bottleneck facilities (fibre backbones, LLU) – great national gateway liberalization
• Universal access & services- From fixed-line voice towards broadband universal access
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 14
Impact of Financial Crisis on ISS RegulationImpact of Financial Crisis on ISS Regulation1) Investment in telecom sector continues,
but investors cautious & want concrete business plans
2) In response, regulators are prioritizing incentives for
investment and working closely with investment
promotion agencies (IPAs)
3) Government stimulus packages announced in 50
countries are an opportunity for financing
as many prioritize broadband investments
(mainly in fixed networks).
ITU Confronting the Crisis series of reports: 1) Its Impact on the ICT Industry - February 2009 2) ICT Stimulus Plans for Economic Growth - October 2009
www.itu.int/crisis2009/www.itu.int/crisis2009/
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 16
ConclusionsConclusions1) Regulatory reform enables technological change &
must be able to adapt to accommodate it
2) The financial crisis has made business conditions
more challenging, but ICT sector has proved resilient.
3) Government stimulus packages are an important
opportunity for the sector
4) New issues are arising all the time,
discussed annually at
ITU Global Symposium for Regulators
Thank you for your attention
17International Telecommunication Union – March 2010