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Vulnerability Vulnerability and Riskand Risk

2003 National Hurricane 2003 National Hurricane ConferenceConference

New Orleans, LA April 14, New Orleans, LA April 14, 20032003Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, Director

Lab for Social & Behavioral ResearchInternational Hurricane Center

QUESTIONS:QUESTIONS:

What’s involved in assessing What’s involved in assessing risk?risk?

What are some possible What are some possible elements of a coordinated elements of a coordinated Federal response to assess Federal response to assess and address the risk of and address the risk of coastal communities and coastal communities and residents?residents?

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VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

HAZARDHAZARD==

RISRISKK

(Event Risk)

(Outcome)

HAZARDSHAZARDS

Accurate information about Accurate information about incidence and nature of the incidence and nature of the hazard hazard

Probabilistic event riskProbabilistic event risk

Based on historical data, Based on historical data, prediction scienceprediction science

TROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICAL CYCLONES

WINDSWINDS SURGESURGE INLAND INLAND

FLOODINGFLOODING TRACKTRACK TIMINGTIMING

Initiatives:Initiatives:• Better prediction Better prediction

modelsmodels• Standard languageStandard language• Effective illustrationsEffective illustrations• VisualizationVisualization• Accurate mappingAccurate mapping• Real-time modelingReal-time modeling

Airborne Laser Terrain Airborne Laser Terrain MappingMapping

Airborne Laser Terrain Airborne Laser Terrain MappingMapping

Infrared laser range finder Infrared laser range finder provides distance to groundprovides distance to ground

Rotating scanning mirror Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath images swath beneath aircraftaircraft

Differential GPS provides Differential GPS provides aircraft locationaircraft location

Inertial reference system Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientationprovides aircraft orientation

Post processing provides x,y,z Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surfacecoordinates of ground surface

Infrared laser range finder Infrared laser range finder provides distance to groundprovides distance to ground

Rotating scanning mirror Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath images swath beneath aircraftaircraft

Differential GPS provides Differential GPS provides aircraft locationaircraft location

Inertial reference system Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientationprovides aircraft orientation

Post processing provides x,y,z Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surfacecoordinates of ground surface

Sun-SentinelSOUTH FLORIDA’S HOME PAGE @ SUN-SENTINEL.COM May 9, 2000

Hurricane evacuees cut by 175,000

Evacuatefor all

hurricanes

Evacuate for category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes

EVACUATION ZONES

Slimmer Zones

Broward County has streamlined its mandatory evacuation zones based on a high-tech survey of coastal elevations. It showed that west of U.S.1, residents are not at high risk of being overcome by tidal surge.

SOURCE: American Red Cross

Some clinics, nursing homes receive reprieveHigh-tech aerial survey shrinks high-risk zones

By KEN KAYESTAFF WRITER

About 175,000 Broward County residents living west of U.S. 1 no longer must flee their homes when a hurricane threatens.

Thanks to a high-tech aerial survey of coastal elevations, Broward has shrunk its evacuation zones to more accurately reflect who is at risk from a tidal surge, Tony Carper, Broward’s director of emergency management, said Monday.

“It occurred to us that we had a large area of over-evacuation compared to the actual area of vulnerability”, he said. “Essentially, the only reason we evacuate coastal areas is because of the fear of a storm surge”.

The revised zones are easy to remember: Everyone east of U.S.1 must evacuate if a hurricane packing winds of 111 mph or stronger approaches.

All residents east of the Intracoastal Waterway must evacuate if a storm with winds between 74 and 110 mph is brewing.

The caveat: Those outside the evacuation zones still may want to go to a shelter if they live by bodies of water and do not have adequate seawall protection. Also, all mobile home residents must evacuate no matter where in Broward they live.

Previously, under meandering zones developed during the early 1980’s, as many as 425,000 residents living as far west as Interstate 95 were required to evacuate. That number has been sliced to 250,000 residents.

Carper said about 35 nursing homes, assisted living facilities and medical clinics east of I-95, including Broward General Medical Center in Fort Lauderdale, no longer must evacuate patients.

Sun-SentinelSOUTH FLORIDA’S HOME PAGE @ SUN-SENTINEL.COM May 9, 2000

Hurricane evacuees cut by 175,000

Evacuatefor all

hurricanes

Evacuate for category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes

EVACUATION ZONES

Slimmer Zones

Broward County has streamlined its mandatory evacuation zones based on a high-tech survey of coastal elevations. It showed that west of U.S.1, residents are not at high risk of being overcome by tidal surge.

SOURCE: American Red Cross

Some clinics, nursing homes receive reprieveHigh-tech aerial survey shrinks high-risk zones

By KEN KAYESTAFF WRITER

About 175,000 Broward County residents living west of U.S. 1 no longer must flee their homes when a hurricane threatens.

Thanks to a high-tech aerial survey of coastal elevations, Broward has shrunk its evacuation zones to more accurately reflect who is at risk from a tidal surge, Tony Carper, Broward’s director of emergency management, said Monday.

“It occurred to us that we had a large area of over-evacuation compared to the actual area of vulnerability”, he said. “Essentially, the only reason we evacuate coastal areas is because of the fear of a storm surge”.

The revised zones are easy to remember: Everyone east of U.S.1 must evacuate if a hurricane packing winds of 111 mph or stronger approaches.

All residents east of the Intracoastal Waterway must evacuate if a storm with winds between 74 and 110 mph is brewing.

The caveat: Those outside the evacuation zones still may want to go to a shelter if they live by bodies of water and do not have adequate seawall protection. Also, all mobile home residents must evacuate no matter where in Broward they live.

Previously, under meandering zones developed during the early 1980’s, as many as 425,000 residents living as far west as Interstate 95 were required to evacuate. That number has been sliced to 250,000 residents.

Carper said about 35 nursing homes, assisted living facilities and medical clinics east of I-95, including Broward General Medical Center in Fort Lauderdale, no longer must evacuate patients.

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VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Inherent characteristics of Inherent characteristics of the response systemthe response system

Whatever limits the ability Whatever limits the ability of a community or of a community or individual to respond individual to respond effectively:effectively:•

MitigateMitigate• PreparePrepare• EvacuateEvacuate

• RespondRespond• RecoverRecover

DIMENSIONS OF DIMENSIONS OF VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Dynamic PressuresDynamic Pressures

Unsafe Unsafe EnvironmentEnvironmentRoot FactorsRoot Factors

DYNAMIC FORCESDYNAMIC FORCES

• Population growthPopulation growth• Rapid urbanizationRapid urbanization• Economic Economic

restructuringrestructuring• Changing politicsChanging politics• Etc. Etc. “…over the next 50 years, economic losses from socioeconomic and demographic changes …. will be from 20 to 60 times greater than losses due to increased incidence of extreme weather.” Sarewitz, Pielke Jr., and Keykhah

POPULATION AT RISKPOPULATION AT RISK

83.2 million reside in Atlantic 83.2 million reside in Atlantic and Gulf coastal countiesand Gulf coastal counties

29.6% of U.S. population29.6% of U.S. population Coastal density:Coastal density:

Atlantic = 402.0 per square mileAtlantic = 402.0 per square mile Gulf = 136.8 per square mileGulf = 136.8 per square mile Non-Coastal U.S. = 44.2 per square Non-Coastal U.S. = 44.2 per square milemile

ROOT CAUSESROOT CAUSES

LACK OF RESOURCESLACK OF RESOURCES

• EconomicEconomic• Physical Physical • PoliticalPolitical• Social InstitutionsSocial Institutions• Social NetworksSocial Networks

(Contextual Factors)

Household Hazard Household Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability

Can Result from:Can Result from: Inadequate economic and material resourcesInadequate economic and material resources

Physical and mental limitationsPhysical and mental limitations

Age, gender, race/ethnicity discriminationAge, gender, race/ethnicity discrimination

Large ratio of dependents to productive Large ratio of dependents to productive adultsadults

Household Hazard Household Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability

Can Result from:Can Result from:

• Lack of knowledge and/or prior Lack of knowledge and/or prior disaster experiencedisaster experience

Illiteracy or lack of language Illiteracy or lack of language proficiencyproficiency

Cultural differencesCultural differences

Lack of social integrationLack of social integration

Lack of control over housing Lack of control over housing conditionsconditions

Selected Types Selected Types of Coastal Householdsof Coastal Households

% of Total% of Total

Female-headedFemale-headed

With children under 18With children under 18

13.613.6

Elders (over 65)Elders (over 65) 14.014.0

RentersRenters 36.336.3

U.S. Census 2000.

UNSAFE ENVIRONMENTUNSAFE ENVIRONMENT

• Fragile physical environmentFragile physical environment

• Fragile social environmentFragile social environment

REDUCING VULNERABILITYREDUCING VULNERABILITY

Doesn’t rely on Doesn’t rely on accurate accurate predictionprediction

Pays off even if Pays off even if no eventno event

Improves Improves quality of lifequality of life

Requires real Requires real money up front to money up front to reduce reduce hypothetical hypothetical losseslosses

Tough political Tough political sellsell

Requires Requires leadership, leadership, incentives and incentives and regulationsregulations

FEDERAL ROLE?FEDERAL ROLE?

Take the lead in moving the Take the lead in moving the paradigm toward a paradigm toward a vulnerability approach to risk vulnerability approach to risk management.management.

““Federal initiatives such as Federal initiatives such as Stafford Act, National Flood Stafford Act, National Flood Insurance, beach nourishment Insurance, beach nourishment programs, tax incentives for programs, tax incentives for second homes should be second homes should be reexamined to reduce their reexamined to reduce their role as stimulators of coastal role as stimulators of coastal growth.” growth.” Heinz Report on Human ImpactsHeinz Report on Human Impacts

Support research to better Support research to better understand how individual understand how individual factors known to influence factors known to influence vulnerability work and the vulnerability work and the findings used by emergency findings used by emergency managers and disaster managers and disaster responders to address the responders to address the needs of specific groups and needs of specific groups and places.places.

Provide education and Provide education and outreach programs to change outreach programs to change policy and practice at all policy and practice at all levels toward a vulnerability levels toward a vulnerability paradigm.paradigm.

Promote the Promote the development development

of models that link of models that link

in a coherent and in a coherent and convincing convincing

framework.framework.

• hazard risk, hazard risk, • vulnerability, vulnerability, • resilience, and resilience, and • day-to-day lifeday-to-day life

ReferencesReferences

Blaikie, P.T., I. David Cannon, and B. Wisner. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge Press.

Sarewitz, D., R. Pielke, Jr. and M. Keykhah. “Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective.” Unpublished manuscript.

Buckle, P., G.L. Marsh and S. Smale. 2002. Reframing Risk, Hazards, Disasters, and Daily Life. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 20 (3): 309-324.

Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, DirectorLAB FOR SOCIAL & BEHAVIORAL RESEARCHINTERNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERFlorida International UniversityMiami, FL 33199morrowb@fiu.eduPhone: 305 348 1607 www.fiu.edu/~lsbr