10 cam lecture coupled jk
TRANSCRIPT
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Why Couple?
The more we study the major problems over time, the
more we come to realize that they cannot be understood
in isolation. They are systemic problems, which meansthat they are interconnected and interdependent.
F. Capra (1996)
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Why coupled models?
Motivation for Coupling Models
Coupling Requirements
What coupling creates
Sensitivity & Feedbacks
The Human Interaction
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IPCC AR4
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IPCC AR4
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IPCC CO2 Forcing @ 2100
Glacial
Formations
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AR4 @ 2100
Equivalent CO2
Major
PETM
OAEs
LateOrd
LateDev
PT
TJ
KT
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Ruddiman (1990)
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Lets zoom in!
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Coupling Components
Requires transfer across boundaries of:
Energy Momentum
Mass
Practical Issues:
How frequent do components communicate Properties must conserve across boundaries
Must deal with disparate grids
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Energy
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Momentum
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Water Mass
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Salinity
Evap-Precip Runoff
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Coupling Affects Modes of ClimateVariability
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Heinrch Events Others?
But some things dont improve!
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Ruddiman (1990)
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Uncoupled CoupledPRECIP
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Forcing Feedbacks Response
Variability
Weallfitinheresomewhere!
Climate Science
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Sensitivity
Forcing
Response
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Feedbacks
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AirTemperature
SeaIceExtent
PrecipitaGon
VegetaGon
CoupledFeedbacks
OceanSolubility
OceanTemperature
Atmospheric
CO2
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Climate Timescales
Ruddiman (1990)
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EnergyBalance
Surface
Temperature
SeaIceArea
Spinup
~100yr
CCSM3
T31X3Control
Inherent Time Scales of Coupled Model
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Beawarewhenthingsareoutofbalance.
TaoTeChing53
ocean
atmosphere
Cp
T
t 0
ocean
atmosphere
CpT
t> 0
Adjustment Timescale
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Box Advective Diffusion Model
Harvey and Schneider (1985)
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Harvey and Schneider (1985)
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Global Surface Energy Balance
Permian-Triassic Simulation
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Ocean Surface Energy Balance
Permian-Triassic Simulation
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Danabasoglu and Gent (2009)
2XCO2
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Earths Carbon Cycle(on century time scales)
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Takahashi et al (2000)
Flux of CO2 into/out of ocean
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Mean net terrestrial and oceanic flux (NEP plus fires; no fossil fuel emissions included) for the period 20012005estimated from our system
Peters W. et.al. PNAS;2007;104:18925-18930
2007 by National Academy of Sciences
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Gregory et al. (2009)
Feedback Strengths
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EmissionsandResulGngAtmosphericCO2ConcentraGonforA2andB1Scenarios
Shafferetal.(2009)
MIT
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OceanDissolvedoxygen(molkg1)forA2IPCCscenario
Shafferetal.(2009)
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Human Interactions
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Why Does Climate Sensitivity Matter?
Caldeira et al. (2003)
To keep warming to 2C
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Caldeira et al. (2003)
To keep warming to 2C
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Dont get involved in partial problems, but always take
flight to where there is a free view over the whole singlegreat problem, even if the view is still not a clear one.
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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THE END