10 questions that will decide the election.pdf

7/31/2019 10 Questions that will Decide the Election.pdf

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210 Questions That Will Help Decide the Election NOVEMBER 2012

10 Questions That Will HelpDecide the Election:

1. What impact did the debates have on the presidentialrace?

2. Has the Romney momentum in the last week increased,stayed the same, or decreased?

3. What are the most important barriers that have keptPresident Obama from being able to more easily win re-election?

4. What is going to be the split in the exit poll between thepercent of White and the percent of non-White voters?

5. Will President Obama be able to break 40% of the Whitevote?


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10 Questions That Will HelpDecide the Election:

6. Is there a difference in interest in the election betweenthe two bases of the political parties?

7. Is there going to be an increase in voter turnoutcompared to 2008?

8. Will President Obamas voter turnout operationsignificantly outperform Mitt Romneys in a way thatchanges the composition of the electorate?

9. How come the presidential ballot in the state polls isdifferent from the national polls?

10. Will there be any change in the House and Senate?


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Q & A

What impactdid the

debates haveon the

presidentialrace?

Huge! Romney won the firstdebate by the largest marginever tracked since 1984.

In the NBC/WSJ poll, 37% of White Independents say thedebates made them morelikely to support Romney,versus 10% more likely tosupport Obama.

The impact rippled throughnational, as well as state-by-state tracking, as Romneysurged nationally by a netfive points.

QUESTION : A NSWER :


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67%

39% 40%

25%

46% 48%

Romney Obama

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate?

*Data from a CNN/ORC post-debate poll.

Best in the Debates.

^ All data comes from CNN. Excludes 1992 three-way debates between Bush, Clinton, and Perot.

+42%

Largest Margin Ever First Debate Early October 2012*

Town Hall Debate Mid October 2012*

-7%

Average of 14 Debates Since 1984^Republicans 37%Democrats 49%

Net Difference -12%

-8%

Foreign Policy Debate Late October 2012*

Next Largest Margin^Bill Clinton 59%Bob Dole 29%

Net Difference -30%


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State (# of Electoral Votes)October 2nd October 26th

Romney Obama Net Difference Romney Obama Net

Difference

Wisconsin (10) 44 51 -7 47 49 -2New Hampshire (4) 44 50 -6 47 48 -1Nevada (6) 45 50 -5 47 50 -3Ohio (18) 44 49 -5 46 48 -2Iowa (6) 45 49 -4 47 49 -2

Virginia (13) 44 48 -4 48 47 +1Colorado (9) 46 49 -3 48 48 0

Florida (29) 46 49 -3 49 47 +2North Carolina (15) 48 48 0 50 47 +3Michigan (16) 42 52 -10 45 49 -4Pennsylvania (20) 42 50 -8 45 50 -5

Presidential Ballot by State Pre-Debate to October 26 th

* All Data From Real Clear Politics


7/33710 Questions That Will Help Decide the Election NOVEMBER 2012

Q & A

Has the Romney

momentum inthe last week increased,

stayed the same,or decreased?

This last week was dominatedby Hurricane Sandy, whichhelped freeze the race in placewith only modest differenceson a state-by-state basis.

The President increased hismargin in Wisconsin andnarrowed Romneys margin inFlorida and North Carolina.Romney narrowed thePresidents margins in whathad been the non-targetstates of Pennsylvania andMichigan.




State (# of Electoral Votes)October 26 Most Recent*

Romney Obama Net Difference Romney Obama Net

Difference

Wisconsin (10) 47 49 -2 46 50 -4Nevada (6) 47 50 -3 47 50 -3Iowa (6) 47 49 -2 46 48 -2Ohio (18) 46 48 -2 47 49 -2New Hampshire (4) 47 48 -1 48 49 -1Colorado (9) 48 48 0 48 48 0

Virginia (13) 48 47 +1 48 47 +1

Florida (29) 49 47 +2 49 48 +1North Carolina (15) 50 45 +5 50 46 +4Pennsylvania (20) 45 50 -5 45 49 -4Michigan (16) 45 49 -4 45 48 -3

Presidential Ballot by State in the Previous Week

* All Data From Real Clear Politics, Most Recent Data from 11/1/2012



Q & A

What are themost important

barriers thathave keptPresident Obamafrom being ableto more easily

win re-election?

Consumer confidence is at anhistoric low for a long period of time.

In the NBC/WSJ poll, we asked if President Obama is re-elected, do

you want to continue in the samedirection or do you want aminor/major change? Sixty-twopercent (62%) of Americanvoters said they wanted majorchange.

President Obama is an incumbentin a difficult economy and peopleare looking for major change. It isdifficult, but not impossible, toconvince people to give him fourmore years.



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If President Bush /President Obama were to win reelection, would you want his second term to be a lot like his first term, would you want him to makeminor adjustments and modifications, or would you want him to make major changes?

55%

MajorChanges

42% A lot like the

First Term/Minor

Modifications62%Major

Changes

35% A Lot like the

First Term/Minor

Modifications

3%Not Sure

October 2004 President Bush October 2012 President Obama

More than six out of ten people want major changes if President Obama is re-elected.

3%

Not Sure

37% of Obama voterswant major changes.



Importantly, Romney is gaining ground in theimportant question of who would be better

when it comes to dealing with the economy.

Net Difference

Mid-September

Late September

October



Q & A

What is going tobe the split in

the exit pollbetween thepercent of White

and the percentof non-Whitevoters?

This is the critical question of this election as there is growingevidence of a startlingdifference in data by ethnicityeven compared to how wide this

gap has been in the past.NBC/WSJ, Gallup, and Pew areall suggesting the compositionof the electorate by ethnicitycould closely mirror the 2008

results. But if Whites drop to72% of the electorate, Obamawould win. If Whites are 76%of the electorate Romney wouldwin.




Whites and non-Whites are further apart nowthan they were in 2008.

White Likely Voters Non-White Likely Voters

GOP Obama Difference GOP Obama Difference

2008 Exit Poll

(74% White) 55% 43% +12% 20% 77% -57%June-August 2012LV Merge (76%White)

53% 40% +13% 18% 77% -59%

September 2012 LV

Merge (75% White) 56% 41% +15% 15% 77% -62%Late Sept.-October2012 LV Merge(74% White)

58% 37% +21% 14% 80% -66%

Presidential Ballot by White/Non-White



Q & A

Will PresidentObama be ableto break 40%of the White

vote?

In the NBC/WSJ poll, andmultiple other national polls,the President consistentlylags below 40% of the Whitevote.

He is poised to lose Whitevoters by the largest marginssince 1984 and 1988.

Offsetting his difficulty with

White voters is his increasingmargins among Latinos, andthe potential for Latinos tobe a larger share of theelectorate.




Pos. Neg. Diff.

October 2000 George W. Bush 56% 29% +27%

October 1996 Bill Clinton 56% 32% +24%

October 2012 Mitt Romney 53% 37% +16%

October 2008 John McCain 49% 34% +15%

October 2004 George W. Bush 55% 40% +15%

October 2008 Barack Obama 49% 38% +11%

October 1992 Bill Clinton 47% 38% +9%

October 1996 Bob Dole 43% 35% +8%

October 2000 Al Gore 44% 42% +2%

October 2004 John Kerry 39% 48% -9%

October 2012 Barack Obama 39% 53% -14%

October 1992 George H.W. Bush 36% 50% -14%

Image Ratings of Candidates Among White Voters in Election Years

President Obama has the highest negative rating amongWhite voters of any presidential candidate in 20 years.



Margins for Romney among White voters and marginsfor Obama among Latino voters are startlingly high.

Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity Among Whites Net Republican Margin

2000 +13%2004 +17%2008 +12%

Mid-October 2012* +23% Among African Americans Net Republican Margin

2000 -81%2004 -77%2008 -91%

Mid-October 2012* -86% Among Hispanics/Latinos Net Republican Margin

2000 -27%2004 -9%2008 -36%

Mid-October 2012* -45% * Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections. Data from 2012 comes from NBC/WSJ October 2012 Survey.



Q & A

Is there adifference in

interest in theelectionbetween the

two bases of the politicalparties?

Yes, definitely. Through all of 2012 Republicans havecontinually expressed moreinterest in the election thanDemocrats.

In the last NBC/WSJ poll,Republicans had an eight pointmargin in self-described interestin the election. The interest inthe election has plummeted thiscycle among key Democratic sub-groups including younger votersand Latinos.The intensity edge has meantthat the most interested votersare more likely to be voting forRomney.




Republicans head into the election with a decidedadvantage in election interest. . .

Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a "ten" means that you are veryinterested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all interested. You may choose any number from one to ten.

While interest has plummeted among two keyDemocratic sub-groups. . .

Interest in Election %9-10October 2008 October 2012 Net Difference

Hispanics/Latinos

Age 18-34

October 2008 October 2012



Presidential Ballot Margins

6% 6%

4% 3%

6%

4%

6% 7% 5%

2%

-3% -3%0% -2%

1%

-3%

1%

-2%January April May June July August Mid-Sept. Late-Sept. October

Among all voters Among high-interest voters

2012: Obama - Romney

0%3% 3%

6% 6%3% 1% 2%

6%

10%3%

11% 14% 14% 11%

4%5%

9%

15%

January March April June July August EarlySeptember

LateSeptember

EarlyOctober

LateOctober

Among all voters Among high-interest voters

2008: Obama - McCain


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Q & A

Is there goingto be a turnout

increasecompared to

2008?

It is likely the percent of the Citizens of Voting

Age (CVA) populationwho vote will drop, butthe total number of ballots will probablyincrease.

Why? Americaspopulation is notstagnant and continuesto grow every four years.



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2012 Turnout

Citizens of Voting Age 2008

Citizens of Voting Age 2012

210,400,000

219,900,000

There has been a projected increase of 9,500,000more people, representing 4.5% growth.


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With three of the four models predicting voter turnoutabout as high or higher than in 2008, our expectationis that the total number of votes cast will be higher.

2012 Turnout Estimates with Citizens of Voting Age Population 219,900,000

YEAR

At 2008 Turnout Levels




62.9%

PERCENTTURNOUT

(x 1,000,000)

63.1%

59.5%

138.3138.8

130.8

58.4% 128.4

Total Votes Cast in 2008: 131,300,000


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Q & A

Will PresidentObamas turnout

operationsignificantly out-

perform MittRomneys in a

way that changesthe compositionof the electorate?

That is certainly possible.NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, andPew data all continue todocument record votercontact.

However, the results aresimilar the recall of contact between theObama and Romneycampaigns is comparable.



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Contacted By a Presidential Campaign

2004 30%2008 42%2012 50%2012 Swing States/Total 71% *

2012 Swing States by Obama 60%2012 Swing States by Romney 57%

*71% of people interviewed in swing states say they were contacted by at least one of the presidential campaigns.


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Q & A

How come the

state polls aredifferent thanthe national

polls?

When the national polls are this closethere can easily be a variation of threeto five net points in multiple swingstates compared to the leadersnational margin.

Given the D emocratic Partys base of 237 electoral votes, the President does have more options for how to get to270 electoral votes. The state pollsare accurately reflecting Obamasmodest advantage in the ElectoralCollege.

Compellingly, a detailed analysisshows the only states that are beyondtheir usual margins in the last twoelections are Ohio and Iowa. Thissuggests in these states the marginscould close even further to mirror theleaders national margin.



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2008State Obama State Margin* Obama National Margin Difference

North Carolina -0.3 -7.3 -7.0Wisconsin -13.9 -7.3 +6.6

Nevada -12.5 -7.3 +5.2Florida -2.8 -7.3 -4.5

Ohio -4.6 -7.3 -2.7New Hampshire -9.6 -7.3 +2.3

Iowa -9.5 -7.3 +2.2Colorado -9.0 -7.3 +1.7 Virginia -6.3 -7.3 -1.0

Please note the variation from Obamas 2008margins in todays swing states.

*A negative sign notes an Obama advantage.


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Average Net Difference for Last Two Cycles

Net Difference Currently From Romney National Margin*

Ohio 1.6 -2.3Iowa 2.0 -2.2

Nevada 2.7 -2.7Wisconsin 4.8 -3.7Colorado 2.0 -0.6

New Hampshire 3.1 -1.3Florida 3.5 +1.2

Virginia 3.4 +0.5North Carolina 8.5 +3.8

We first calculated the winners net margin in each state over the last two electioncycles compared to his national margin. We then compared this average for eachstate to the leaders net margin in each swing state today. Ohio and Iowa are theonly two where the leaders margin exceeds the average margin for that state in

the last two cycles.

*A negative sign means Obama is leading by that margin while a positive sign means Romney is leading by that margin.


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Q & A

Will there beany change

in the House

and Senate?

The House is likelyto stay Republican.

Even as late astoday, the situationas regards controlof the Senate isunpredictable.



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The Democrats do not appear to have a sufficientadvantage to suggest control of the House

will change.

What is your preference for the outcome of this years congressional elections: A Congress controlled by Republicans or a Con gress controlled by Democrats?

Republicans Gain Control of the House Republican Advantage

19942010

Democrats Gain Control of the House Democrat Advantage

2006Today Democrat Advantage

2012


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Deserves to be re-elected New Person Net Difference

Incumbent PartyLoses House

Incumbent PartyKeeps House

Today

This data also suggests Republicans willkeep the House.


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4 th Quarter 2012: Toss Up/Lean House Seats

GOP Lean OrToss Up Seats

DEM Lean orToss Up Seats

PERIOD

There are simply not enough Republican seats inplay to flip the House.


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Even as late as today, the situation in the Senateis unpredictable.

Democratic SeatsLean/Toss Up (11)

Republican SeatsLean/Toss Up (5)

Senate Race Lean and Toss Up Seats According to Charlie Cook

*November 1, 2012.

10 questions that will decide the election.pdf

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