10. the future of earth. is the earth predictable? earthquakes volcanoes plate configurations...
TRANSCRIPT
10. The Future of Earth
Is the Earth predictable?
Earthquakes
Volcanoes
Plate configurations
Climate
Extinctions
Earthquake risk
Predicting earthquakes
The L'Aquila Earthquake: Science on Trial
April 2009
Magnitude 6.9
309 killed
65,000 of 72,000 made homeless
Seismologists to blame?
7 men jailed for 6 years
“vague, generic and ineffective” advice
Unpredictable?
"Earthquake prediction will only become possible with a detailed knowledge of the earthquake process. Even then, it may still be impossible."
Dr Dan Faulkner
(University of Liverpool)
96% left breedingpool 5 days beforeearthquake (Grant& Halliday 2010)
Better off with toads?
Predicting volcanic eruptionsPredicting volcanic eruptions
EyjafjallajökullEyjafjallajökull
Seismometry
Thermal imaging
Klyuchevskoy volcano, Russia
Gas sampling
Eruption cyclicity
Predictive tectonics
Predictive extinctions?
The Big Five
The Big Sixth?
Too fast?
The Uniquely Big Sixth?The Uniquely Big Sixth?
A cautionary Christmas tail