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FROM THE WCRP CLIMATE SYMPOSIUM 2014 TO THE GCOS CONFERENCE VIA THE COP 21
Alain RatierDirector-General
1 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726
Some GCOS-relevant outcome of COP-21
Adaptation (Article 7(c)):
Strengthening scientific knowledge on climateStrengthening scientific knowledge on climate,
including research systematic observation of theincluding research, systematic observation of the
climate system and early warning systems in aclimate system and early warning systems, in a
manner that informs climate services and a e t at o s c ate se ces a d
supports decision-making
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pp g
This is consistent with the GFCS
Enable better management of adaptation to climate change through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information into planning, policy and practice
3 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726
Research and science are key drivers
• Research: “strengthening scientific knowledge”• Research feeds IPCC assessment reportsp• Climate Research has requirements of its own• WCRP and its observation panels play a key role• WCRP and its observation panels play a key role
A robust science base is needed for all GFCS pillars• A robust science base is needed for all GFCS pillars• This is true for “Observations and monitoring”• Science of observation and extraction of Climate
Data Records shall not be underestimated
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Research requirements: Climate Symposium 2014
WCRP “Grand Science Challenges” :
- Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity
- The Changing Water Cycle- Cryosphere in a Warming World- Cryosphere in a Warming World- Ocean Circulation and Regional
Sea Level Rise- Prediction and Attribution of
Extremes: from Climate to Weather
- Regional Climate Variability and Change: Enabling Climate Services
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Services
Climate Symposium 2014: GCOS-relevant Outcomes (1/2)
• The thermodynamic aspects of the Grand Challenges aregenerally better understood than the dynamic aspects:circulation is a common uncertainty across several Grandcirculation is a common uncertainty across several GrandChallenges
• The potential of the combination of operationalprogrammes and research missions is unique:
- The continuation of the high precision ocean altimetrymeasurements is a top priority of several Grand ScienceChallenges
- Some research missions (e.g. GRACE, Active atmospheric
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sounding, GPM…) need to be continued beyond one singlesatellite
Jason-CS/Sentinel-6 mission is now approved(and Jason-3 was launched on 17 January !)
Source CNES/LEGOS/CLS 2014
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.... But continuation of precipitation measurements from space is of concern
Climate Symposium 2014: GCOS-relevant Outcomes (2/2)
• Links between Grand Science Challenges and their needs/priorities for space-based observations and Climate DataR d h ld b f th d l dRecords should be further developed
• This recommendation is addressed to GCOS• This recommendation is addressed to GCOS
• The broad range of needs and priorities formulated by theresearch community for space-based observations canonly be fulfilled through international cooperation
• This one is addressed to CGMES and CEOS agencies
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• This one is addressed to CGMES and CEOS agencies
The Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space
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Implementation coordinated by Joint CEOS – CGMS Working Group on Climate (JWG Climate)
The Architecture and the GFCS
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Sensing climate
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JWG Climate: more than sensing
• Provide visibility on Climate Data Records availableProvide visibility on Climate Data Records available from CEOS & CGMS missions or their combination
• Create the conditions for delivering further Climate Data Records to fulfill GCOS requirementsData Records to fulfill GCOS requirements
• Optimize the planning of future missions andOptimize the planning of future missions and constellations to expand Climate Data Records and close gaps with respect to GCOS requirements
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close gaps with respect to GCOS requirements
Re-calibration of historical dataNeed for recalibration of historical Meteosat image data
HIRS/2AIRS
Availability of instruments in polar orbit for inter-satellite calibration
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1980 2002 2006
IASI
Reprocessing physical data with better algorithms
Standard deviation (in %) of operational and reprocessed bending angles from GRAS compared to ECMWF operational forecasts
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Standard deviation (in %) of operational and reprocessed bending angles from GRAS compared to ECMWF operational forecasts, showing improved quality of reprocessed data at all vertical levels
Reprocessing of geophysical products (ECV)
Excellent AMVs (80<QI<100)Number of reprocessed products extracted from Meteosat imaging with a quality index > 80% in the period 2005-2013
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Number of reprocessed AMVs Number of operationally produced AMVs
Thematic Climate Data Records of ECVs
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Inputs to Global Reanalysis
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Planning & gap analysis: the JWGC inventory
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The elephant in the room: uncertainties
D i i ki i i ti f t i ti• Decision making requires appreciation of uncertainties• Research is needed to narrow down uncertainties• Science and reference data are needed to document and
trace uncertainties in observations and climate records
• Traceability of uncertainties in observations• Metrology• Metrology• Cross-calibration/validation against reference observations• Evaluation of limitations of processing algorithms
• Mature Climate Records include information on
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Mature Climate Records include information on uncertainties
Maturity of Climate Data records
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GENERALISATION COULD BE A GCOS REQUIREMENT
Reference missions/observation data sets
• Examples: observations from space• Hyperspectral infrared sounding (IASI/AIRS/CrIS)• Hyperspectral infrared sounding (IASI/AIRS/CrIS)• High precision ocean altimetry (Jason class)• Dual-view infrared imagery (ATSR/SLSTR) • CLAREO• Etc...
• Other reference datasets critical, also for space21 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726
space
GCOS is a key instrument within the GFCS
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Conclusion
• Unique role of GCOS in GFCS
S i ill d t th GCOS• Space agencies will respond to the GCOS Implementation Plan through the Architecture
• GCOS can add value about uncertainties, through:
• Tracing GCOS requirements to WCRP Grand Science Challenges
• Supporting the identification of reference observation data sets
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