11-1 copyright 2007 mcgraw-hill australia pty ltd ppts t/a fundamentals of corporate finance 4e, by...
TRANSCRIPT
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11-1Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Chapter Eleven
Return, Risk and the Security
Market Line
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11-2Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
11.1 Expected Returns and Variances
11.2 Portfolios
11.3 Announcements, Surprises and Expected Returns
11.4 Risk: Systematic and Non-systematic
11.5 Diversification and Portfolio Risk
11.6 Systematic Risk and Beta
11.7 The Security Market Line
11.8 The Capital Market Line
11.9 Portfolio Characteristics
11.10 The SML and the Cost of Capital: A Preview
11.11 Problems with the CAPM
Summary and Conclusions
Chapter Organisation
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11-3Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Chapter Objectives• Calculate the expected return and risk (standard
deviation) of both a single asset and a portfolio.• Distinguish between systematic and non-systematic
risk.• Explain the principle of diversification.• Explain the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).• Distinguish between the security market line (SML)
and the capital market line (CML).
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11-4Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Expected Return and Variance• Expected return—the weighted average of the
distribution of possible returns in the future.
• Variance of returns—a measure of the dispersion of the distribution of possible returns.
• Rational investors like return and dislike risk.
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11-5Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Calculating Expected Return
15%
5% 0.25 15% 0.50 35% 0.25
return Expected
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11-6Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Calculating Variance
14.14%or 0.1414
0.02
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11-7Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Expected Return and Variance
13%0.130.250.600.050.40
6%0.060.100.600.300.40
RE
RE
B
A
Expected Returns:
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11-8Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Expected Return and Variance
0.0216
0.13 0.25 0.60 0.13 0.05 0.40 Var
0.0384
0.06 0.10 0.60 0.06 0.30 0.40 Var
22
22
B
A
R
R
14.7%0.1470.0216
19.6%0.1960.0384
Rσ
Rσ
B
A
Variances:
Standard deviations:
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11-9Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Portfolios• A portfolio is a collection of assets.
• Portfolio weight is the percentage of a portfolio’s total value in a particular asset.
• An asset’s risk and return is important in how it affects the risk and return of the portfolio.
• The risk–return trade-off for a portfolio is measured by the portfolio’s expected return and standard deviation, just as with individual assets.
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11-10Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Portfolio Expected Returns• The expected return of a portfolio is the weighted
average of the expected returns for each asset in the portfolio.
m
E(Rp) = ∑ wjE (Rj) j=1
• You can also find the expected return by finding the portfolio return in each possible state and computing the expected value as we did with individual securities.
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11-11Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Portfolio Return and Variance
Assume 50 per cent of portfolio in asset A and 50 per cent in asset B.
9.5%or0.095
0.0750.600.1250.40
RE p
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11-12Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Portfolio Return and Variance
• Var(Rp) (0.50 x Var(RA)) + (0.50 x Var(RB)).
• By combining assets in a portfolio, the risks faced by the investor can significantly change.
2.45% or 0.0245
0.0006
0.0006
0.095 0.075 0.60 0.095 0.125 0.40 Var 22
p
p
R
R
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11-13Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Asset A returns
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-
0.01
-
0.02
-
0.03
-
0.04
-
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-
0.01
-
0.02
-
0.03
Asset B returns
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
Portfolio returns:50% A and 50% B
The Effect of Diversification on Portfolio Variance
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11-14Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Announcements, Surprises and Expected Returns• Key Issues
– What are the components of the total return?– What are the different types of risk?
• Expected and Unexpected Returns– Total return (R) = expected return (E(R)) + unexpected return
(U).
• Announcements and News– Announcement = expected part + surprise = E(R) + U– It is the surprise component that affects a stock’s price and,
therefore, its return.
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11-15Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Risk• Systematic risk is the component of total risk which is
due to economy-wide factors. Also known as market risk.
• Influences a large number of assets, each to a greater or lesser extent.
• Non-systematic risk is the component of total risk which is unique to an asset or firm.
• Affects a single asset or a small group of assets.
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11-16Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Risk
• The distinction between systematic and non-systematic risk means can be applied to break down the surprise portion of returns:
portion systematic-nonportion systematic
return Unexpectedreturn Expectedreturn Total
RE
URER
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11-17Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Diversification• Diversification is the process of spreading
investments across different assets, industries and countries to reduce risk.
• Total risk = systematic risk + non-systematic risk
• Non-systematic risk can be eliminated by diversification.
• Systematic risk affects all assets and cannot be diversified away.
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11-18Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Standard Deviations of Monthly Portfolio Returns
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11-19Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
The Principle of Diversification• Diversification can substantially reduce the variability
of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns.
• This reduction in risk arises because worse than expected returns from one asset are offset by better than expected returns from another.
• However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away and that is the systematic portion or market risk.
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11-20Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Portfolio Diversification
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11-21Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Systematic Risk and Beta• The systematic risk principle states that the expected
return on a risky asset depends only on the asset’s systematic risk.
• The amount of systematic risk in an asset relative to an average risky asset is measured by the beta coefficient.
• Since assets with larger betas have greater systematic risks, they will have greater expected returns.
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11-22Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Systematic Risk and Beta• Example:
Std Deviation Beta
Security A 30% 0.60
Security B 10% 1.20
• Security B will have a higher risk premium and a greater expected return, despite the fact that it has less total risk than Security A.
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11-23Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Measuring Systemic Risk• What does beta tell us?
- A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same systematic risk as the overall market.
- A beta < 1 implies the asset has less systematic risk than the overall market.
- A beta > 1 implies the asset has more systematic risk than the overall market.
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11-24Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Beta Coefficients for Selected Companies
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11-25Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Portfolio Beta Calculations
Amount PortfolioShare Invested Weights Beta
(1) (2) (3) (4) (3) (4)
ABC Company $6 000 50% 0.90 0.450
LMN Company 4 000 33% 1.10 0.367
XYZ Company 2 000 17% 1.30 0.217
Portfolio $12 000 100% 1.034
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11-26Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas• Assume you wish to hold a portfolio consisting of
asset A and a riskless asset. Given the following information, calculate portfolio expected returns and portfolio betas, letting the proportion of funds invested in asset A range from 0 to 125 per cent.
• Asset A has a beta of 1.2 and an expected return of 18 per cent.
• The risk-free rate is 7 per cent.• Asset A weights: 0 per cent, 25 per cent, 50 per cent,
75 per cent, 100 per cent and 125 per cent.
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11-27Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas
Proportion Proportion Portfolio Invested in Invested in Expected Portfolio Asset A (%) Risk-free Asset (%) Return (%) Beta
0 100 7.00 0.00
25 75 9.75 0.30
50 50 12.50 0.60
75 25 15.25 0.90
100 0 18.00 1.20
125 –25 20.75 1.50
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11-28Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Return, Risk and Equilibrium• Key issues:
– What is the relationship between risk and return?– What does security market equilibrium look like?
• The ratio of the risk premium to beta is the same for every asset. In other words, the reward-to-risk ratio for the market is constant and equal to:
i
fi RRE
ratiok Reward/ris
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11-29Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Asset Pricing• Asset A has an expected return of 12 per cent and a beta of 1.40.
Asset B has an expected return of 8 per cent and a beta of 0.80. Are these two assets valued correctly relative to each other if the risk-free rate is 5 per cent?
• Asset B offers insufficient return for its level of risk, relative to A. B’s price is too high; therefore, it is overvalued (or A is undervalued).
0.0375 0.80
0.05 0.08 :B
0.05 1.40
0.05 0.12 :A
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11-30Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Security Market Line• The security market line (SML) is the representation
of market equilibrium.
• The slope of the SML is the reward-to-risk ratio: (E(RM) – Rf)/ßM.
• But since the beta for the market is ALWAYS equal to one, the slope can be rewritten.
• Slope = E(RM) – Rf = market risk premium.
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11-31Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Security Market Line (SML)
Asset expectedreturn (E (Ri))
Asset
beta (i)
= E (RM) – Rf
E (RM)
Rf
M = 1.0
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11-32Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)• An equilibrium model of the relationship between risk
and return.
• What determines an asset’s expected return?– The risk-free rate—the pure time value of money– The market risk premium—the reward for bearing systematic
risk– The beta coefficient—a measure of the amount of
systematic risk present in a particular asset.
ifMfi RRERRE CAPM
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11-33Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Calculation of Systematic Risk
MMii / R ,R ~~Cov
Where:Cov = covariance
i = random distribution of return for asset i
M = random distribution of return for the market
M = standard deviation of market return
R~
R~
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11-34Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Covariance and Correlation• The covariance term measures how returns change
together—measured in absolute terms.• The correlation coefficient measures how returns
change together—measured in relative terms.• Correlation coefficient ranges between –1.0 and +1.0.
Where i = standard deviation of the return on asset i.
MiMiiM /R ,R σσ~~
Covρ
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11-35Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Security Market Line versus Capital Market Line
ifMfi
pMfMfp
βRRERRE
RRERRE
SML
/ CML
• SML explains the expected return for all assets.
• CML explains the expected return for efficient portfolios.
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11-36Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Risk of a Portfolio
Variance of a two-asset portfolio is calculated as:
weighted variance of the expected return for
each asset in the portfolio
+
twice the weighted covariance of the expected
return on the first asset with the expected
return on the second
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11-37Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Example—Risk of a Portfolio
Weighting Std Deviation
Asset A 0.3 0.26
Asset B 0.7 0.13
The covariance of the expected returns between A and B is 0.017.
0.1466 dev Std
0.0215
0.00714 0.008281 0.006084
0.0170.70.32 0.130.7 0.260.3 Variance 22
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11-38Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Problems with CAPM• Difficulties in estimating beta
- thin trading
- non-constant beta.
• Using CAPM
- adding explanatory variables
- measure of market return.
• Where are we?
- Despite its limitations, CAPM is still highly regarded
- To discard the CAPM is to surely ‘throw the baby out with the
bath water.’
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11-39Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan
Summary and Conclusions• The reward for bearing risk is the risk premium on an
asset.
• The total risk associated with an asset has two parts: systematic risk and non-systematic risk.
• Non-systematic risk can be eliminated by diversification.
• The risk premium on an asset is determined by its systematic risk.
• The SML tells us the reward offered in financial markets for bearing risk.
• The SML is a benchmark for which we can compare the returns expected from real asset investments to determine if they are desirable.