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Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2014 Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire

EAB Risk 2014

0 50 100 200 300 400 500 Map produced by FHTET, ILMiles Fort Collins, CO on 11-26-2013

File: EAB_Risk_2014.mxdAlbers Equal Area Conic Projection Project: EAB_2013

LowModerateModerate HighHigh

Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2013EAB risk is a function of EAB detection likelihood, detectionuncertainty, and potential introduction locations. Potential introduction locations include campgrounds,rest areas, and other locations identified by state cooperators. Introduction siteswere given a high risk value and then combined with the 2014 EABdetection likelihood composite model. Risk values are classified into:Low, Moderate, Moderate High, and High classes.

Emerald Ash Borer Risk Assessment 2014 Summary

Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire

November 26, 2013

The Risk Assessment 2014 map for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, was produced for the Contiguous 48 U.S. (CONUS) at a

1 square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) in

collaboration with Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS PPQ) staff members. The intended use is to develop a

risk based sample design for EAB that prioritizes detection and management activities in areas with the highest risk. The Risk Assessment was

produced by combining the EAB Detection Likelihood and Uncertainty 2002 to 2013 positives model with the EAB Detection Likelihood and

Uncertainty 2013 positives models (Downing et al. 2013). Detection Likelihood models were combined by taking the maximum value between the two

models at each 1 km cell (Table 1). Potential introduction sites, including campgrounds, rest areas, and other sites identified by state cooperators, were

given a high risk rating. The interim surface was masked using a Fraxinus species range map (Withrow 2010) to develop the final EAB Risk

Assessment product. For display purposes and ease of interpretation risk values were partitioned into four classes of risk (Table 2).

Risk Value Risk Class

0 to 0.05 Low

0.05 to 0.25 Moderate

0.25 to 0.50 Moderate

High

0.50 to 1 High

Inputs Description and Source

Detection

Likelihood 2002 to

2013

Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions

(Downing 2012). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators from

2002 to 2013. The 2002 to 2013 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on previously known EAB

infested areas.

Detection

Likelihood 2013

Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions

(Downing 2013). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators for only

the 2013field season. The 2013 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on the frontier of the EAB

expanding range.

Detection

Uncertainty 2002

to 2013

Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2002 to 2013 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the

standard deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.

Detection

Uncertainty 2013

Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2013 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the standard

deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.

Campgrounds Compiled from Federal campgrounds (USDA APHIS PPQ 2009), U.S. MapData Landmark Points (ESRI 2010), a

proprietary campground database acquired from Salesgenie (2010). Additional campground locations were

received from state cooperators.

U.S. Rest Areas Rest Areas point locations were compiled from points of interest across the U.S. (POI Factory 2012

http://www.poi-factory.com/node/14656).

High Risk

Introduction Sites

High risk introduction sites identified in IPHIS and by other state cooperators where merged with the campground

and rest area dataset to create a single high risk introduction site database.

Table 2: Risk Assessment classes Table 1: Inputs used in A. planipennis Risk Assessment 2014

Contractor Support

Ian Leinwand

John Withrow

Point of Contact

Marla C. Downing

Forest Health Technology Enterprise

Team (FHTET), Forest Health

Protection, USDA Forest Service

2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331

Fort Collins, CO 80526-8121

Phone: 970-295-5843

mdowning@fs.fed.us

Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2013. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus

planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health

Protection USDA Forest Service, http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml

Withrow, J. 2010. Production of Urban Host Layers. Deliverable document prepared for USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise

Team (FHTET), Task Order No: AG-7604-D-09-0542. WAO No: FHTET-10-Pest-Host.