1242.2219 information system economics technology management motto “any sufficiently advanced...

1242.2219

Information System Economics

Technology Management

Motto

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”

Arthur C. Clarke. 'Profiles of the Future' 1962 (Clarke's Third Law)

1242.2219 Information System Economics


Agenda

Technologies to be managed

Problems in information technology management

Elements of technology management



Information Technologies to be managed

hardware

software

communications

integration



Problems in Information Technology Management

multiplicity of technologies

constantly changing technologies

forecasting difficulty



Multiplicity of Technologies - Hardware

client/server

smart/dumb

mobile/static

central/desktop/laptop/handheld



Multiplicity of Technologies - Software

philosophies – OOP, process oriented, rule based etc.

operating systems – Windows versions, Unix versions, MVX, etc.

languages – COBOL, C++, Java, Perl, CGI, Visual Basic, LISP …



Multiplicity of Technologies - Communications

point-to-point: copper wire/optical fibre/infrared/

wireless: local loop/cellular/satellite

analog/digital

mobile/static

protocols (software)



Constantly Changing Technologies

instant obsolescence

the variant life cycle problem

integration of different generations

but see also possible negative effects of standards



Possible Disadvantages of Standards

MS DOS shows the power of the marketplace in deciding which standards will be adopted most widely. Kindly stated, it is user hostile, arbitrary, over complex, intolerant of errors and novices, and badly designed. However, it became the standard across the personal computer field once IBM chose it over several now-forgotten competitors’ operating systems. It created an industry. Even though IBM introduced an entirely new operating system on its PS/2 series machines, DOS is alive and thriving …

Peter G.W. Keen. Shaping The Future: Business Design Through Information technology. Harvard Business School Press, 1991.



Forecasting Difficulty

“Every big advance in the past 20 years was not predicted; they were only understood after they were in existence” McNurlin & Sprague, p.193

over-optimism – techno-hype

effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL - wireless local loop)

effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US)

computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)



Examples of Techno-hype

telecommuting

ISDN

Business Process Reengineering (BPR)

Hammer, M. 1990. "Reengineering work: don't automate, obliterate," Harvard Business Review 68 (4, July-August): 104-112.

Artificial Intelligence




over-optimism – techno-hype

effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL)

effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US)

computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)

examples from AI and Expert Systems

Artificial Intelligence: Artificial Intelligence: History & FutureHistory & Future

Predicting Developments in AI

The history of predictions

Simon and Chess

McCarthy and common sense

: Artificial IntelligenceHistory & Future


The history of predictions

Simon and Chess

McCarthy and common sense



The need for a sense of history, e.g.the wheel

medicine

the Internet



The need for humility and perspective

Given the history, how to predict the future?


Can a machine think? (The Turing test)

Can a machine learn?

Can a Chinese room think?

Can a machine have emotions?

Can a machine have consciousness?

Is the brain a quantum level phenomenon?

What is the nature of (human) intelligence?

Strong AI Questions


The Loebner Prize Medal and a cash award is awarded annually to the designer of the computer system that best succeeds in passing a variant of the Turing Test. In 1999, $2,000 and a bronze medal will be awarded to the designer of the Most Human Computer as rated by a panel of judges.

… the winner of the $100000 Grand Prize must be prepared todeal with audio visual input, and appropriate competitions will be held once competitors have reached Turing's 30:70 likelihood level of being mistaken for a human. An intermediate Turing Prize of $25000 will be offered for the first/best program to exceed this level.

Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner

*** JUDGE00 ***

PROGRAM[11:30:34]

PROGRAM[11:30:34]Let's start.

*** JUDGE05 ***

PROGRAM[11:52:22]

PROGRAM[11:52:22]Ready

JUDGE05[11:52:39]Hi! I'm Greg.

PROGRAM[11:52:41]Hi

PROGRAM[11:52:44]Nice to meet you .

JUDGE05[11:53:12]How are you today?

PROGRAM[11:53:13]I'm fine thanks

JUDGE05[11:53:53]What sort of things are you interested in?

PROGRAM[11:54:21]I am not interested in Astrology although my star sign is Libra.

JUDGE05[11:54:38]Why is that?

PROGRAM[11:55:05]One never knows one's destiny, that's the mystery of life.

JUDGE05[11:56:25]Yes. What direction have you gone in through life so far?

PROGRAM[11:56:38]Yes well they travel here but where have you travelled.

PROGRAM[11:57:09]I have seen people suck coffee through a Tim Tam.

Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner (cont’d)

JUDGE05[11:58:33]A number of places. Have you tried that with tea?

PROGRAM[11:58:47]Airports are such soulless places, don't you think?

PROGRAM[11:58:57]Of course

JUDGE05[11:59:57]Yes, but you can catch up with work there sometimes.Do you find that?

PROGRAM[12:00:02]You have to be interested in politics in a democracy.

JUDGE05[12:00:36]Why do you say that?

PROGRAM[12:00:48]My brother thinks Dilbert portrays a very realistic picture of the software industry.

JUDGE05[12:01:37]How would you relate that to politics?

PROGRAM[12:01:53]That has nothing to do with politics

JUDGE05[12:02:41]So why can't people be uninterested in politics?

PROGRAM[12:02:56]People who play the money market don't produce anything so should therefore be ostracized from society.

JUDGE05[12:04:05]How would the economy work if you did that?

PROGRAM[12:04:22]I think the effects of a bad Japanese economy will be disastrous.

JUDGE05[12:04:37]Goodbye.

PROGRAM[12:04:37]Bye

JUDGE05[12:12:05]

A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR(ca. 1965)

YOUNG LADY: Men are all alike

DOCTOR: In what way

YOUNG LADY: They’re always bugging us about something or other

DOCTOR Can you think of a specific example

YOUNG LADY: Well, my boyfriend made me come here

DOCTOR: Your boyfriend made you come here

YOUNG LADY: He says I’m depressed most of the time

DOCTOR: I am sorry to hear you are depressed

YOUNG LADY: It’s true. I am unhappy

DOCTOR: Do you think coming here will help you not to be unhappy

YOUNG LADY: I need some help, that much seems certain

DOCTOR: What would it mean to you if you got some help

YOUNG LADY: Perhaps I could learn to get along with my mother

DOCTOR: Tell me more about your family

YOUNG LADY: My mother takes care of me

DOCTOR: Who else in your family takes care of you

YOUNG LADY: My father

DOCTOR: Your father

YOUNG LADY: You are like my father in some ways

DOCTOR: What resemblance do you see

YOUNG LADY: You are not very aggressive but I think you don’t want me to notice that

DOCTOR: What makes you think I am not very aggressive

YOUNG LADY: You don’t argue with me

DOCTOR: Why do you think I don’t argue with you

YOUNG LADY: You are afraid of me

DOCTOR: Does it please you to believe I am afraid of you

YOUNG LADY: My father is afraid of everybody

DOCTOR: What else comes to mind when you think of your father

YOUNG LADY: Bullies

DOCTOR: Does that have anything to do with the fact that your boyfriend made you come here

A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR (cont’d)

Loebner Competition Scores - 1999Loebner Competition Scores - 1999

Term Median Mean HumannessResponsive

nessTuring H/C Identity

8 11.00 10.09 2.00 1.82 0.0% C Gerold Gorman - Algernon(geckont/VisualStudio 08)

1 10.00 9.09 1.64 1.55 1.8% C Bradley Custer -Amos/Julie (titan/C 01)

7 9.00 8.73 1.73 2.18 5.5% C Jason Hutchens – Noni(hdnt/C 07)

2 8.00 8.27 1.82 1.82 1.8% C Chris & Sandy Johnson -Chris (telnet/Access 02)

6 7.00 7.00 2.36 3.18 5.5% C David Hamill - Mabel(atlas/Perl 06)

3 6.00 6.55 3.27 3.36 10.9% C Robby Garner - Albert/Jim(platypus/DataFlex 03)

0 4.00 3.73 7.00 7.27 34.1% H James Moor - rgu1(confederate 00)

5 3.00 3.45 7.82 7.73 50.0% H Susan G - rgu6(confederate 05)

10 3.00 3.18 8.27 8.09 52.3% H Michael B - rgu11(confederate 10)

9 3.00 2.91 9.27 8.91 52.3% H Klara V - rgu10(confederate 09)

4 2.00 3.00 8.64 8.82 61.4% H John Reeves - rgu5(confederate 04)



Knowledge representation, especially commonsense knowledge, is becoming the key to technological

development!



Roadblocks in the Development of AI

Knowledge acquisition

Representational knowledge

Emergent knowledge


Commonsense knowledge

Implicit knowledge

“John broke his piggy bank to buy Mary a Barbie doll for her birthday.”

Fuzzy knowledge

“canary: a small finch of the Canary Islands that is usually greenish to yellow and is kept as a cage bird and singer.”

Context

Roadblocks in the Development of AI



Lessons From Expert Systems

Edward A. Feigenbaum



Elements of Technology Management

create an architecture – a set of policies, principles and guidelines

paraphrased from McNurlin & Sprague, p. 191

creating an architecture requires a vision




Positioning the IT Platform

scope

range

growth

standards

adaptability to new developments

adaptability to organizational needs




Final Thoughts

develop a vision of where you want the IT platform to be in the future in terms of the organizations needs

observe critically – beware of magic bullets

be sceptical!



Summary

Technologies to be managed

Problems in information technology management

multiple technologies

changing technologies

standards

forecasting

technohype

Elements of technology management

1242.2219 information system economics technology management motto “any sufficiently advanced...

Documents

wll effects of lack

advanced technology

business design

harvard business review

harvard business school

communications pointtopoint

managed problems

unix versions