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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2013

for

Center for Strategic and International Studies

July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC

by

Adam Sieminski, Administrator

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Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013

2Adam Sieminski, IEO2013July 25, 2013

With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to

China and India.

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the worlds fastest-growing energysources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuelscontinue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.

Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported byincreasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States.

Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due toincreases in Chinas consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in

OECD member countries.

Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbondioxide emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2040, reaching 45 billionmetric tons in 2040.

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Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use;

energy intensity improvements moderate this trend

3

average annual change (2010-2040)percent per year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

U.S. OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

China India Brazil MiddleEast

Africa Russia

Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013July 25, 2013

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

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Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase

in energy use

4

world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu


0

100

200

300

400

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

History Projections


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By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level;

Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth

5

energy consumption by selected countryquadrillion Btu


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

China

United States

India

History Projections2010


107

55

220

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Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing

source of energy consumption

6

world energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquids(including biofuels)

Renewables(excluding biofuels)

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear


34%

28%

22%

11%

5%

28%

27%

23%

7%

15%

Share ofworld total


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Industrial sector energy consumption in China

7

China industrial sector energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu


0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquids

RenewablesNatural gas

Coal

Electricity

Total


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Gross output curves shape Chinas industrial coal and oil use

8

China gross output for iron production

real 2005 dollars (MER)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China gross output for chemical production

real 2005 dollars (MER)

Source: Oxford Industrial Model


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Liquid Fuels Markets


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OPEC member countries contribute almost half of the total

increase in world liquid supplies

10


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OPEC petroleum liquids

OPEC petroleum liquids

Nonpetroleum


world liquids productionmillion barrels per day


62

49

5

50

35

2

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Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries

11

non-OPEC conventional production

million barrels per day


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile

2010 2040


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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2010

2010

2040

Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly

65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies

12

world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040




Biofuels

Coal-to-liquids

Gas-to-liquids

Other

Other

Brazil United States

China

OtherQatar

2010

2040

2040

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Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in

the Middle East are uncertain

13

Source: EIA, IEO2013

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013

July 25, 2013

Country 2011

2040

Past as

prologue

Iraq

success

Iran

success

Iran & Iraqsuccess;Saudi

Arabiatakes the

rest

2040production

range

Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5

Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 8.1 4.2

Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 11.0 7.7

Other Middle EastOPEC

7.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 _

Total Middle EastOPEC

25.4 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 _

liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios


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Natural Gas Markets


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Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth

in natural gas consumption

15

world natural gas consumption

trillion cubic feet



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Non-OECD

bcf/day

330

275

220

165

110

55

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Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States

account for the largest increases in natural gas production

16

1

2

5

5

6

10

12

16

19

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Other OECD

Canada

Australia/New Zealand

Non-OECD Central and South America

Africa

Non-OECD Asia

United States

Middle East

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

growth in natural gas production 2010-2040

trillion cubic feet



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Electricity Markets


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In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest

growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040


0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world electricity generation by fuelbillion kilowatthours


Coal

Natural gas

Hydropower

Nuclear

Other renewablesLiquids

History Projections

40%

22%

36%

24%

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Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide

Emissions


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Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world

increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

21

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

billion metric tons



0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

History Projections

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Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related

carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection

22

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuelbillion metric tons

Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels

2010History Projections



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There are many issues that increase uncertainty


Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States,Europe, and China

The timing of Japans full recovery from the impacts of the 2011

nuclear disaster at Fukushima

Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential forunrest elsewhere

Shale gas and shale oil production potential

OPEC market share decisions

Climate policies

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For more information

24

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/steohttp://www.eia.gov/aeohttp://www.eia.gov/ieohttp://www.eia.gov/merhttp://www.eia.gov/merhttp://www.eia.gov/ieohttp://www.eia.gov/aeohttp://www.eia.gov/steohttp://www.eia.gov/

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Supplementary Slides

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013July 25, 2013 25

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IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity

to different GDP growth and oil prices


Reference case World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy

consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040 Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43%

in 2040

High Economic Growth case World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040

Low Economic Growth case World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040

High Oil Price case Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share

is 38% in 2040

Low Oil Price case Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is

51% in 2040

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Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global

economy expands and the call on OPEC rises

27


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Low Oil Price

High Oil Price

Reference


Brent crude oil price pathsreal 2011 dollars per barrel


$237

$163

$75

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Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

28

world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

242

282

535

285



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Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

29

OPEC petroleum production



0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Middle East North Africa West Africa South America

2010 2040


Sh l il d h th t ti l t d ti ll lt ld

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Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world

energy markets


map of basins with assessed shale oiland gas formations, as of May 2013

Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI

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Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources


Shale oil

Rank Country Billion barrels1 Russia 75

2 United States 58

3 China 32

4 Argentina 27

5 Libya 26

6 Venezuela 13

7 Mexico 13

8 Pakistan 9

9 Canada 9

10 Indonesia 8

World total 345

Shale gas

Rank Country Trillion cubic feet

1 China 1,115

2 Argentina 802

3 Algeria 707

4 United States 665

5 Canada 573

6 Mexico 545

7 Australia 437

8 South Africa 390

9 Russia 285

10 Brazil 245

World total 7,299

Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.

Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.

h l i h d lb d h i i l

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0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040

Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly

important to the United States, China and Canada

32

natural gas production

trillion cubic feet


China Canada

Shale gas

All other

United States


Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Bt B ithi h th l it b d

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Btu or Brithish thermal units, can be used as an energy

measurement across different energy sources

33Adam Sieminski IEO2013

One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in theburning of a wood match.

One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline.

One trillion Btu is equal to 500 100-ton railroad cars of coal.

One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

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