137 e. franklin street, 6th floor ● campus box 6116 ● chapel hill, nc 27599-6116
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137 E. Franklin Street, 6th floor ● Campus Box 6116 ● Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116
The UNC Institute for the Environment focuses its research and engagement on four critical issues that lie at the heart of global environmental challenges . . .
Environmental Modeling
Landscape Change & Health
Energy & the Environment
Sustainable Community Design
The UNC Institute for the Environment conducts its environmental modeling work within the Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development (CEMPD) – a group of 20 scientists and engineers with a long history working with EPA
To learn more about CEMPD, visit us on the web at:
http://www.ie.unc.edu/cempd
CEMPD ExpertiseAir Quality Modeling Modeling Tool DevelopmentMeteorological Modeling Regulatory SupportEmissions Modeling Data Analysis
Ambient, Met, and AQ Data Analysis• Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET)
• Integrating AMET-AQ and AMET-Met to create a unified approach for evaluating met and AQ model results• Creating installation package, user interface, and documentation
• Air Quality and Emissions Model Performance Evaluation • Developing tools to process and create netCDF files of aerometric and emissions data• Create an extensive set of model evaluation tools for annual model evaluation of CMAQ with O3, PM and Air Toxics, against various observed networks• Create tools to visualize AERMOD outputs with PAVE
• National Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (NUDAPT)• Hosting an emerging collection of high-resolution 3-d building and land use data for urban modeling
Sponsors• EPA, FAA and Others
Overview• An observational and modeling study to examine the interrelationships among:
• Changes in climate• Air pollution• Heat and cold morbidity• Classification of weather patterns
• Figure shows percentage rise in asthma-related hospital admissionsSponsor• EPA
Ambient, Met, and AQ Data Analysis
Effects of Climate Change on Human Health
Air Quality ModelingCEMPD investigates the scientific issues involved with simulating air quality through the development, evaluation, and application of air quality modeling systems at urban, regional and global scales.
Projects related to air quality modeling include:
• Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions
• Radiative Feedback of Aerosols
• CMAQ Coarse-mode Chemistry Algorithms
• Effects of Climate Change on Human Health
• Integrated Meteorology-Chemistry Modeling
Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions
Overview• Multiscale annual CMAQ simulations to assess incremental effects of aviation emissions on O3, PM and Air Toxics near airports• Comparative evaluation of AERMOD driven by MM5 and NWS meteorology• Compare CMAQ and AERMOD outputs• Explore alternate hybrid modeling techniques• Develop PM Response Surface Model (PM-RSM) for aviation emissions• Data transfer to multiple institutions
Sponsors• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)• NASA
FAA/NASA/TC Center of Excellence
Air Quality Modeling
Air Quality ModelingCMAQ Photolysis Module
Overview• New on-line photolysis module includes effect of primary and secondary aerosols predicted by CMAQ• Cloud effects on photolysis calculated on-line• Calculates single scattering albedo for vertical column to compare with satellite data
Overview• Direct radiative aerosol feedbacks in WRF/CMAQ• Develop a software module to estimate the optical and radiative properties of CMAQ simulated aerosol fields• Develop a scheme to facilitate the direct aerosol feedback to the WRF shortwave radiation module
Sponsor• EPA
Coupled Met/Chem WRF/CMAQ
Variable Grid Modeling
Overview• Natural transport of plumes across multiple grid resolutions• Avoids nesting• Single domain can cover many resolutions• One model run• Figure shows partial modeling domain over North Carolina
Sponsor• DOE
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Air Quality Modeling
Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants
Overview• Examine processes associated with cross-Pacific and cross-Atlantic pollutant transport • Annual simulations and analyses of meteorology and emissions• Figure shows an ozone episode during April 1998
Sponsor• EPA
Air Quality Modeling
NO3-
NH4+
SO4=
Na+
Cl-
H2O
POA
SOAa
SOAb
EC
OtherSVOCs
HNO3
NH3
H2O
NO3-
NH4+
SO42-
Na+
Cl-
H2O
Soil, Other
COARSE MODE2 FINE MODES
H2SO4
HCl
• Developed algorithms to be included in next CMAQ release for chemistry of coarse particles
• New species and interactions shown in RED
Sponsor• EPA
Air Quality Modeling
Overview
• We developed and applied a coupled meteorology-chemistry model to study air quality impacts on climate; evaluating with long-term aerosol measurements over North America
• Impacts of A1B and B1 IPCC emissions scenarios for 2030 are being examined over South Asia
• The model is being linked to a forest growth model and fire simulator to examine climate change, forest biomass loads, fire emissions and aerosol carbon over the southeastern U.S.
Sponsors NSF, EPA
Integrated ModelingAir Quality and Climate Interactions
Modeled Aerosol Optical Depths
Meteorological Modeling
Prognostic snow model in WRF
Overview• Develop a prognostic snow model in the Pleim/Xiu Land Surface
Model within WRF• The snow model has only one layer of snow cover and simulates the
snow accumulation, sublimation, melting, and heat exchange at snow–atmosphere and snow–soil interfaces
Sponsor• EPA
Air Quality Forecast SupportOverview• Review/optimize AQ forecast system using MM5 and WRF over Korea
- Reduced MM5 runtimes by 50% using appropriate MPI settings
Sponsor• Korea Institute of Science and Technology
CEMPD is a leader in emissions data preparation for air quality modeling. As the primary developer of the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, CEMPD has been advancing emissions software and modeling concepts for over a decade.
Emissions Inventory Modeling
Projects related to emissions inventory modeling include• Determining the causes of regional haze and acid deposition• Air quality impacts of aviation emissions
Determining the Causes of Regional Haze and Acid Deposition
Emissions Inventory Modeling
Overview• Regional haze modeling of the western U.S.• Conducting multiple annual base-and future- year emissions simulations• Regional haze SIP development• 2006 base year modeling for the Rocky Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS) studySponsors• Western Governors’ Association• National Park Service
Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions
Overview• Develop new SMOKE interface to process high-resolution airport-level emissions estimates from FAA’s EDMS, that vary in 4-D• Develop custom temporal profiles from a few airports to 325 U.S. airports• Process integrated CAP+HAP annual inventories • Compare NEI and EDMS-based estimates• Development of in-flight aircraft emissions inventories for SMOKE/CMAQ modeling
Sponsors• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)• NASA
Emissions Inventory Modeling
UNC Computing Resources
Compute Servers• Topsail – 4,000+ 2.3 GHz EM64T CPUs
• 28.7 Teraflops capacity, ranks 34th in Top 500• Emerald – 320 mixed CPUs (Xeon and Athlon)
• 439.3 Gigaflops capacity• Cedar/Cypress – 136 Itanium2 CPUs
Data Storage• 39 Tb of shared scratch space • Mass Storage – IBMTS3500 tape library, scalable
Petabyte long-term storage, with dual backup• Provides data access in near real-time
Documentation and Tech TransferOverview• Developing and providing documentation, support, and distribution for several modeling, decision support, and analysis tools• Globally renowned training program for emissions and air quality modeling• Host of the CMAS Center
Supported Tools• SMOKE• CMAQ/MCIP• BenMAP• VERDI www.smoke-model.org
www.cmaq-model.org
Training and Conferences• SMOKE, CMAQ, EMF, and WRF hands-on trainings
• New Process Analyses Training• Classes offered at UNC and on-site at any location, worldwide• Annual conference highlighting developments and applications of atmospheric modeling• Visiting scientist program for collaborative training with the CMAS Center August ‘07 CMAS-NATO Workshop
Bulgarian Academy of SciencesSofia, Bulgaria
Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS)
Outreach
July ‘06 SMOKE training for INEMexico City, Mexico
CEMPD software engineers have developed many models and software tools that support environmental modeling. Using a team approach to software design and engineering, we focus on improving the modeling process by facilitating the automation of modeling studies and by developing tools for the generation and use of metadata during model application studies.
Projects related to software design include:
• Emissions Modeling Framework
• Control Strategy Tool (CoST)
• Spatial Allocator
• Surrogate Tool
Modeling Tool Development
Overview• A system to better manage emissions modeling data• Changes to datasets are tracked and versioned in a database; any version can be retrieved at any time• Quality assurance steps can be run and tracked • “Case manager” provides a graphical user interface to run SMOKE and other models• Embedded Control Strategy Tool (CoST) develops controlled inventories using available control measures
Sponsor• EPA
Emissions Modeling Framework
Modeling Tool Development
Spatial AllocatorOverview• Converts BELD3 land use data to SMOKE inputs• Changes data on one grid to another grid • Point-to-grid, projection, and datum conversion• Spatial data overlay and Shapefile filtering
Surrogate ToolOverview• Part of the Emissions Modeling Framework• Creates SMOKE surrogates from Shapefile attributes (e.g., population)• Merges precomputed surrogates • Gapfills surrogates to prevent dropping of emissions
Sponsor• EPA
1km data converted to 4km data
Sample Surrogate Tool output
Modeling Tool Development
Overview• Real-time storm-surge prediction system created for the State of North Carolina • Uses WRF numerical weather prediction model + ADCIRC coastal ocean prediction model• Assists with evacuation planning, decision- making and resource deployment
Sponsors• FEMA• State of North Carolina• RENCI
Storm-surge simulation of Tropical Storm Ernesto
Decision Support
Hurricane Storm-Surge Prediction
137 E. Franklin Street, 6th floor ● Campus Box 6116 ● Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116
Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development
Contact Information:
Adel Hanna Director of CEMPD [email protected] Eyth Contract Program Manager [email protected] Arunachalam Senior Air Quality Modeler [email protected] Adelman Senior Emissions Modeler [email protected]
Additional contact information:
http://www.ie.unc.edu/cempd/staff.cfm