14th annual marine money gulf ship finance forum 15 …€¦ · · 2018-03-19china and axcj are...

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14th Annual Marine Money Gulf Ship Finance Forum15 March 2018

Bilal Khan +97 52 693 [email protected]

Senior Economist, MENA and PakistanStandard Chartered Bank

Global Focus Economic outlook 2018

Beware of the dog

mailto:[email protected]

How we see the world in 2018

2

Our forecasts, %

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Distribution of world GDP growth

3

China accounts for an increasing share of world GDPSize represents 2018F percentage share of world GDP in PPP terms; shade represents whether share is increasing/decreasing vs past-5-year average

Cell colours (medium-term performance): Regions growing fast compared to their 5-year average are coloured green; those growing slowly versus the 5-year average are red. Our threshold for fast and slow is the 5-year average +/- 0.5 standard deviation.

Source: IMF, Standard Chartered Research

Asia to remain the biggest driver of global growth

4

China and AXCJ are the top contributors to global growth CN, EA, US ppt contributions to global growth; global GDP growth, % y/y


World (% y/y)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F

China AXCJ US Euro area

Pre-GFC average growth (1998-2007)

Post-GFC average growth (2008-16)Asia ex- Japan likely to contribute c.62% of global

growth in 2017-18

G20 growth, fastest in India and China, weakest in Japan and UK

5

GDP growth is below 10Y average in developing economies but above 10Y average in advanced economiesG20 GDP growth, % y/y


2016

2017F

2018F

10Y avg

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

IN CN ID TR AR AU KR CA US BR EA MX RU SA ZA JP UK

The UK has settled into a slower pace of growth, with uncertainty around Brexit still weighing on the economy

...but the era of ultra-loose monetary policy may be ending

6

Major central banks will likely continue to remove policy accommodation throughout 2018 and beyondChange in central banks balance-sheet size, y/y, USD tn (LHS); SPX index. % y/y (RHS)

Source: Fed, BoJ, ECB, BoE, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

Fed

ECB

BoJ

BoE

SPX (% y/y, RHS)

Fed QE 3

BoJ QQE, asset purchase programme at JPY 60-70tn

ECB TLTRO I

BoJ expands QQE, asset purchase programme

to JPY 80tn

ECB expands assetpurchase programme

to EUR 60bn

BoJ QQE with negative interest rate

ECB expands asset purchase programme

to EUR 80bn

ECB TLTRO II

ECB asset purchase programme back to

EUR 60bn

Fed balance-sheet reduction

ECB tapering

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Forecast

Oil price outlook

What is the outlook for oil?

Oil prices have risen strongly since mid-2017, with improving fundamentals, strong US data, firm demand numbers and supportive comments from OPEC

OPEC cut compliance remains high, average 107% in 2017 Brent and WTI prices at their highest levels since mid-2015 WTI prices continue to lag Brent; the spread seems too wide,

increased by overblown expectations of US crude oil output Fundamentals have tightened, leading to backwardation in the

forward curves The surplus of oil in the US continues to disappear Shale gains, which accelerated in early 2017, are being

pegged back by rising costs and shortages of key inputs at critical pinch points along the supply chain

Tight market means geopolitical concerns will play a larger role in the oil market this year

Standard Chartered Brent crude price forecast, consensus, forward curves and historical actuals (USD/bbl)


Standard Chartered commodity price forecasts: Brent and WTI (USD/bbl)

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 2019 2020

ICE Brent 62 59 59 62 61 62 65

NYMEX WTI basis Cushing, OK 60 56 56 59 58 58 61

8

Oil Demand growth is likely to outpace supply

9

Demand is likely to continue to be the main supportive factor for prices Demand growth to outpace non-OPEC supply growth in 2018 and 2019, even allowing for rapid US shale output growth

Demand: Global oil demand to increase by 1.69mb/d to average 100.1mb/d in 2018

2017 growth 1.63mb/d H2-2018 demand to reach 100.8mb/d Growth heavily skewed towards emerging markets

Supply: Non-OPEC oil liquids supply to

grow 1.18mb/d in North America to 22.4mb/d in 2018 Shape of the supply

curve for US shale remains critical for oil price dynamics

Non-OPEC oil liquids supply to fall 170kb/d in other regions to 37.3mb/d Three lost years of

investment in many conventional long-cycle oil plays

Call on OPEC crude to increase by 530kb/d to 33.4mb/d

Global oil market balances; 2017-2019Crude oil and natural gas liquids (mb/d)


Economies Middle East and North Africa and Pakistan

MENA Anticipating some recovery

11

GCC growth to rise from a low baseWeighted average GDP growth for the GCC bloc,% y/y

Fiscal deficits to narrow but remain largeFiscal balances, USD bn (LHS); Brent crude prices, USD/bbl (RHS)

Source: Standard Chartered Research Source: CEIC, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Standard Chartered Research

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2016 2017F 2018F

2017 growth was weighed down by OPEC output cuts

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Oil price (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2016 2017F 2018F

Growth to recover gradually

2017F

2018F2019F

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Oman Qatar Bahrain

2004-14 average

Source: IMF, CEIC, country authorities, Standard Chartered Research 12

We expect significantly lower growth in 2018-19 vs the 2004-14 averageReal GDP growth, % change

Forecasts Economies

* Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt: Figures are for fiscal year ending in June of year shown in column heading ** India: Figures are for fiscal year starting in April of year shown in column heading

^ Inflation: Core PCE deflator used for US Source: Standard Chartered Research

13

Real GDP growth (%) Inflation (yearly average %) Current account (% of GDP)

Country 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Majors 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2

US^ 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8 -3.0Euro area 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4Japan 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8UK 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 -5.2 -6.0 -5.1 -4.8 -4.3Canada 0.9 1.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 -3.4 -3.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.0Switzerland 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.8 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 9.0 9.4 10.0 10.2 10.6Australia 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.9 3.2 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 -4.7 -2.9 -1.6 -1.9 -1.7New Zealand 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.7 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 -2.9 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7

Asia 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.9Bangladesh* 6.6 7.1 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.9 6.0 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5China 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.4 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5Hong Kong 2.4 2.0 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.6 2.5 2.5 3.3 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.5India** 8.0 7.1 6.5 7.2 7.5 4.9 4.5 3.6 4.5 4.6 -1.1 -0.7 -2.0 -2.2 -2.3Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.4 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.8 -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.1 -2.5Malaysia 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.4Pakistan* 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.5 6.0 4.5 2.9 4.2 5.6 6.3 -1.0 -1.7 -4.0 -5.3 -4.1Philippines 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 1.4 1.8 3.2 4.5 4.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1Singapore 2.0 2.0 3.6 3.2 2.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 1.3 1.7 19.7 19.0 20.0 19.0 18.0South Korea 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 0.7 1.0 2.1 1.9 2.3 7.7 7.5 6.0 5.5 5.0Sri Lanka 4.8 4.4 4.3 5.0 5.5 1.3 4.0 6.3 5.0 5.0 -2.4 -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0Taiwan 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 -0.3 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.3 14.4 13.4 12.0 11.0 10.0Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.5 -0.9 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.3 8.1 11.7 10.8 7.0 3.0Vietnam 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.8 6.9 0.6 2.7 3.5 4.0 5.1 -0.1 4.1 1.3 1.1 1.7

MENA 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.9 5.5 7.8 8.2 5.9 -1.4 -4.5 -2.1 -0.9 -0.9Bahrain 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.3 1.8 1.5 -2.4 -4.6 -3.3 -2.8 -2.6Egypt* 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.6 11.0 10.2 23.3 22.8 9.5 -3.6 -5.9 -6.6 -3.4 -2.5Iraq -2.4 11.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 -6.5 -8.7 -4.5 -3.0 -2.5Jordan 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.6 -0.9 -0.8 3.8 4.2 3.8 -9.1 -9.3 -8.9 -8.6 -8.4Kuwait 0.6 3.5 -0.5 1.5 2.7 3.3 3.0 1.7 3.2 3.0 3.5 -4.5 3.1 8.2 8.5Lebanon 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.2 -3.7 -0.8 4.5 3.0 3.5 -18.7 -18.9 -22.5 -21.2 -22.6Oman 5.7 2.1 0.6 1.9 2.3 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.6 -15.5 -18.6 -10.6 -7.1 -6.1Qatar 3.7 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 1.7 2.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 5.0 -5.5 1.3 3.5 6.7Saudi Arabia 3.5 1.4 -0.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 3.5 0.4 2.5 3.0 -8.3 -4.3 2.5 3.8 2.6Turkey 6.1 2.9 6.1 3.9 3.9 7.7 7.8 10.6 9.0 8.5 -4.4 -3.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.0UAE 3.8 3.0 0.9 2.6 3.1 4.1 1.6 2.0 3.2 3.4 4.7 2.4 3.9 4.3 3.6

Forecasts Economies (contd)

* Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt: Figures are for fiscal year ending in June of year shown in column heading ** India: Figures are for fiscal year starting in April of year shown in column heading

^ Inflation: Core PCE deflator used for US Source: Standard Chartered Research

Real GDP growth (%) Inflation (yearly average %) Current account (% of GDP)

Country 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Africa 3.0 0.9 2.1 3.4 4.2 7.4 12.0 11.7 8.4 6.6 -4.1 -2.1 -1.6 -2.6 -3.2Angola 3.0 -0.7 1.5 2.0 5.0 10.3 32.4 30.8 28.0 14.0 -10.0 -5.1 -4.8 -4.5 -4.0

Botswana -1.7 4.3 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.1 8.3 11.7 13.1 10.5 9.6

Cameroon 5.8 4.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 2.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 -4.1 -3.6 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5

Cte dlvoire 8.9 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 2.0 2.0 -0.6 -1.1 -2.9 -2.0 -2.0

The Gambia 4.3 2.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.5 6.0 -15.0 -8.9 -10.0 -10.0 -12.3

Ghana 3.8 3.6 7.0 6.0 7.5 17.1 17.5 12.3 9.9 8.3 -7.5 -6.6 -5.0 -6.0 -5.9

Kenya 5.7 5.8 4.5 4.6 5.4 6.6 6.3 8.1 4.0 7.5 -6.8 -6.6 -7.0 -6.5 -6.8

Nigeria 2.8 -1.6 0.8 3.0 3.8 9.0 15.6 16.5 10.0 7.1 -3.2 0.7 1.0 -0.8 -2.0

Sierra Leone -20.5 6.1 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.7 10.8 18.2 11.5 9.3 -17.5 -19.7 -19.7 -16.1 -14.4

South Africa 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 4.6 6.3 5.3 5.4 5.1 -4.4 -3.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.9

Tanzania 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.8 7.0 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.7 -8.5 -4.6 -3.5 -6.8 -6.5

Uganda 5.6 3.3 5.0 5.5 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.6 3.9 6.9 -6.7 -3.4 -5.4 -6.1 -8.6

Zambia 3.2 3.4 4.3 5.0 5.4 10.0 18.2 6.6 5.2 7.1 -4.0 -3.6 -3.0 -2.4 -2.0

EuropeCzech Republic 5.3 2.6 4.3 3.2 3.0 0.3 0.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2

Hungary 3.4 2.2 3.8 3.5 3.4 0.1 0.4 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 6.1 4.0 3.2 2.8

Poland 3.8 2.9 4.3 4.0 3.6 -0.7 -0.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 0.1 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

Russia -2.8 -0.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 15.5 7.0 3.9 3.7 4.0 5.0 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.0

Latin America 0.0 -0.5 1.7 2.4 2.5 9.2 9.4 6.3 4.7 4.5 -3.1 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2Argentina 2.6 -2.2 3.0 3.6 3.2 28.4 36.0 25.0 15.0 10.0 -2.7 -2.7 -3.1 -3.2 -3.4

Brazil -3.8 -3.6 0.9 2.2 2.4 10.7 8.7 3.0 3.5 4.5 -3.3 -1.3 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5

Chile 2.1 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.1 4.4 3.8 2.0 2.4 2.8 -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.7

Colombia 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.5 6.8 7.5 4.2 3.5 3.7 -6.4 -4.3 -4.0 -3.8 -4.1

Mexico 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 5.5 3.5 3.3 -2.5 -2.2 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2

Peru 3.3 4.0 2.8 4.1 6.0 4.4 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.8 -4.8 -2.7 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2

Global 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1

14

Forecasts FX


Country Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Majors

Euro area 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.40Japan 110.0 112.0 114.0 112.0 110.0 112.0 105.0 100.0 95.00 95.00UK 1.45 1.48 1.45 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.50Canada 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.09 1.08Switzerland 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.84Australia 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.84 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.80New Zealand 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.80 0.78 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.74

AsiaBangladesh 82.50 83.50 84.00 84.50 85.00 84.50 83.50 84.00 84.50 84.50China 6.28 6.23 6.21 6.18 6.18 6.18 6.13 6.07 6.04 6.00CNH 6.27 6.22 6.21 6.18 6.18 6.18 6.13 6.07 6.04 6.00Hong Kong 7.85 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.79 7.78 7.77 7.77India 62.50 62.00 61.50 61.50 61.25 61.50 63.00 64.50 66.00 66.00Indonesia 13,200 13,000 12,800 13,000 13,300 13,000 13,300 13,600 13,900 13,900Malaysia 3.80 3.70 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.75 3.80 3.80 3.70 3.70Pakistan 112.0 115.0 116.0 117.0 118.0 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0Philippines 50.50 49.00 50.00 50.50 50.50 50.50 50.00 49.00 48.00 48.00Singapore 1.27 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.22South Korea 1,055 1,045 1,035 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,010 1,000 1,000Sri Lanka 155.5 156.0 158.0 160.0 160.0 160.0 164.0 168.0 172.0 172.0Taiwan 29.00 28.80 28.90 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.50 29.30 29.10 29.00Thailand 30.00 30.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.50 30.00 30.00 30.00Vietnam 22,700 22,650 22,600 22,600 22,500 22,600 22,600 22,200 21,500 21,500

MENABahrain 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38Egypt 17.50 17.25 17.00 17.00 17.10 17.00 17.15 17.35 17.50 17.90Iraq 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182Jordan 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71Kuwait 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Lebanon 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508Oman 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39Qatar 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64Saudi Arabia 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75Turkey 3.71 3.68 3.64 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.90 4.00 4.10 4.20UAE 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67

15

Forecasts FX (contd)


Country Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Africa

Angola 205.0 205.0 210.0 210.0 214.2 210.0 214.2 218.5 222.9 227.3

Botswana 9.31 9.11 9.25 9.52 9.70 9.52 10.40 10.53 10.52 10.58

Cameroon 520.6 512.5 504.6 496.9 496.9 496.9 482.3 475.3 468.5 468.5

Cte dlvoire 520.6 512.5 504.6 496.9 496.9 496.9 482.3 475.3 468.5 468.5

The Gambia 49.00 50.00 51.50 53.40 55.80 53.40 57.30 59.00 61.00 63.00

Ghana 4.50 4.60 4.88 4.84 4.90 4.84 5.20 6.20 6.50 6.60

Kenya 105.9 106.4 107.0 107.7 108.5 107.7 109.5 111.0 111.5 112.0

Nigeria 363.0 365.0 368.0 372.0 375.0 372.0 375.0 390.0 420.0 440.0

Sierra Leone 7,994 8,235 8,409 8,559 8,645 8,559 9,160 10,296 10,656 10,901

South Africa 11.50 11.20 11.40 11.80 12.05 11.80 12.60 12.80 12.80 12.90

Tanzania 2,270 2,290 2,300 2,320 2,340 2,320 2,360 2,420 2,570 2,600

Uganda 3,680 3,700 3,750 3,820 3,860 3,820 3,900 4,020 4,050 4,080

Zambia 10.35 10.50 10.60 10.80 11.00 10.80 11.50 12.00 12.50 12.80

Europe

Czech Republic 20.03 19.65 19.29 18.94 18.94 18.94 18.01 17.39 17.14 17.14

Hungary 246.0 240.0 234.0 228.0 228.0 228.0 209.6 202.9 196.4 196.4

Poland 3.26 3.18 3.10 3.03 3.03 3.03 2.94 2.86 2.79 2.79

Russia 55.10 54.07 53.03 52.00 52.00 52.00 53.00 54.00 55.00 56.00

Latin America

Argentina 19.75 20.50 21.50 22.50 23.00 22.50 25.00 26.50 28.00 30.00

Brazil 3.05 2.90 3.10 2.80 2.90 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.50 3.75

Chile 590.0 580.0 575.0 565.0 570.0 565.0 600.0 580.0 575.0 600.0

Colombia 2,750 2,900 2,750 2,650 2,700 2,650 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600

Mexico 19.00 19.50 18.50 18.00 17.50 18.00 17.00 17.50 18.00 18.50

Peru 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.10 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.50

16

Forecasts Commodities

Source: Standard Chartered Research 17

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 2018 2019

Energy

Crude oil (nearby future, USD/bbl)

ICE Brent 62 59 59 62 65 63 61 62

NYMEX WTI 60 56 56 59 62 59 58 58

Dubai 59 56 56 60 63 61 58 60

US natural gas (nearby future, USD/mmBtu)

NYMEX basis Henry Hub Louisiana 2.75 2.65 2.70 2.80 3.00 2.80 2.73 2.93

Metals

Base metals (LME 3m, USD/t)

Aluminium 2,300 2,250 2,150 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,250 2,300

Copper 7,000 7,000 7,200 7,400 7,250 7,250 7,150 7,250

Lead 2,500 2,600 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,300 2,550 2,400

Nickel 12,000 11,750 12,000 12,000 12,250 12,250 11,938 12,250

Tin 21,750 22,500 22,500 23,250 25,000 25,000 22,500 25,000

Zinc 3,300 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,450 2,450 3,225 2,450

Precious metals (spot, USD/oz)

Gold 1,300 1,280 1,340 1,375 1,320 1,320 1,324 1,320

Palladium 1,010 990 1,050 1,100 1,020 1,020 1,038 1,020

Platinum 970 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,100 993 1,100

Silver 17.9 17.7 18.6 19.0 17.5 17.5 18.3 17.5

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Global Focus Economic outlook 2018Beware of the dogHow we see the world in 2018Distribution of world GDP growthAsia to remain the biggest driver of global growth G20 growth, fastest in India and China, weakest in Japan and UK...but the era of ultra-loose monetary policy may be endingOil price outlookWhat is the outlook for oil?Oil Demand growth is likely to outpace supplyEconomies Middle East and North Africa and PakistanMENA Anticipating some recoveryGrowth to recover graduallyForecasts EconomiesForecasts Economies (contd)Forecasts FXForecasts FX (contd)Forecasts CommoditiesSlide Number 18Slide Number 19

14th annual marine money gulf ship finance forum 15 …€¦ · · 2018-03-19china and axcj are...

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