Application of an agricultural sector model to the assessment of advances in animal health

and livestock feed technologiesBy:

D. Enahoro, H. Kiara, B. Lukuyu, S. Msangi

Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains: bringing the research to bear on impact assessment, policy analysis and advocacy

for development.Accra, GHANA, 5 – 6 November, 2013

OutlineGlobal picture of livestock production and demand

Improved livestock production as engine for socio-economic development

Science-based options to bridging yield gaps

Animal disease control

Livestock feed development

Assessing options in the IMPACT framework

Next steps and limitations

Implications for research and policy

Livestock’s Global Importance

Livestock production accounts for 30% of land surface and 70% of available agricultural land globally

Contributes 40 percent of world agriculture GDP (mean 33% in developing countries, up to 80 in some)

Employs 1.3 billion; provides food, incomes, non-market benefits (do these exceed market benefits?)

Livestock products make up 23% (10%) total calories consumed/person in developed (developing) countries

Account for a third of aggregate protein intake

Constitute 17% of global agricultural trade

Meat products and developed countries dominate international trade in livestock products

Caveat: Livestock production can be a significant contributor to environmental stresses: water use and pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, land degradation …

Trends in Livestock Demand and Production

Figure 1: Meat Demand (‘000 MTs) in selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO)

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Meat Africa

Meat Asia

Meat C. America

Meat Europe

Meat N. America

Meat S. America

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Milk Africa

Milk Asia

Milk C. America

Milk Europe

Milk N. America

Milk S. America

Figure 2: Milk Demand (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO)

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Africa

Asia

C. America

E. Union

N. America

S. America

Figure 3: Meat Production (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 - 2011 (FAOstat)

Figure 4: Net Trade in Meat (‘000 MTs), High export and import countries (FAOstat, 2000)

GERNZE

AUSFRA

ARGBRI

NETSCA

POLAEU

ALG GULCHN

BRAM

EXIT

A

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

A Role for Livestock in Economic DevelopmentPotential

Large smallholder sector in many developing countries, e.g., 70 - 80% of national herd in Tanzania, Ethiopia

Up to 900 million poor livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia (Staal et al., 2009)

Global demand for livestock products to > double by 2050 Opportunities for improved production; incomes, nutrition,

health outcomes for the poor in developing countries?

Challenges … Low livestock yield/productivity in smallholder systems Issues with food safety, risks of animal-related diseases Weak markets, institutions, policies; barriers to trade Global climate change Competition for natural resources; environmental effects

Science-based solutions to livestock yield and production gaps

I. Livestock Feeds• Fodder development e.g.,

Napier grass• Dual purpose crop cultivar

development• Feed preservation and

processing e.g., fortified blocks, calf starters

II. Animal Health• East Coast Fever vaccine• Contagious Bovine

Pleuro-Pneumonia• Peste de Petites

Ruminants• African Swine fever• Zoonotic diseases

including Rift Valley fever

IV. Other• Improved livestock water

productivity• Livestock insurance

III. Genetics and Breeding• Breeding management*• Reproduction technologies

(embryo transfers, etc.)• Animal genetic resources

data systems• Marker-assisted

selections, etc.• Indigenous breeds

(knowledge of)

* Knowledge and application of principles …

East Coast Fever

Caused by intracellular protozoan Theilera parva

Calves and exotic breeds most susceptible

Endemic in 11 countries in E., C., and S. Africa

28.7 million cattle (20%) in high risk areas

1.1 m deaths, est. 300 m USD related losses/year

Slaughter, border restrictions, treatment, vector methods for control

Live vaccine available; high costs of administration

Fig. 5: Distribution of ECF in sub-Saharan Africa (McLeod and Randolph)

Tan

KenUga

Zim

Improved multi-component vaccine proposed

Livestock Feed Constraints

Poor feed quality, limited supplies constrain expansion of livestock production

Intensification pressures threaten system sustainability

Technologies needed to increase supplies & improve qualities using minimum land expansion

New varieties

Disease, pest etc. control, climate resistance

Feed processing options (Mogus, 2011) calf starters, mineral blocks, silage …

Assessing the Options

Application of the IMPACT model

Long run partial equilibrium model of world agricultural trade

45+ globally trade commodities, 115 regions/countries

300+ food production units (FPU)

8 global livestock production systems (LPS)

FPU-level crop production; FPU-LPS livestock production

FPU/LPS supply equations; country-level demand equations for food, feed, biofuels and other uses of commodities

Model projections (to 2050):

Production (crop areas, animal numbers, yields), demand, net trade, prices, malnutrition rates.

Rates of return on investments, production-related GHG emissions, etc.

On-going Data and Analysis Work

Specifying technical parameters for livestock technologies

Livestock production system (yield)

Food production system (feed availability and quality)

Country/region (demand)

Global (costs of international agricultural research)

Allocating global research costs. How are long-run returns affected by:

What you invest in?

How much?

Who bears the costs, when investments are made, etc.

Assessing returns

Producer profits, consumer prices, food security and nutrition, environment, etc.

Parameterizing Livestock Technology Options

ECF Stress Feed Constraint

Technology option Multi-comp. vaccine Calf starter

Pop. under stress 50-100% 50%

Reduce (calf) mortality 5-25% 60%

Increase births N/A 30%

Increase yield 5-15% 30-40%

R-to-Adoption timeline 2012 - 2022 2012 - 2015

Costs- R&D N/A 150,000 USD

- Extension N/A 10,000 USD

- Commercial 4.626 m USD** 250,000 USD

Exp. max adoption 5-30% N/A

Success probability 50% 70%

Table 1: Parameters for Evaluating a Vaccine and a Feed ProcessingTechnology for Cattle (Kenya only*)

*Cattle distribution in Kenya: Rangelands systems 26%; Mixed 25%; Urban 24% and Other 25% ** These are global / International costs

Next Steps and ChallengesNext Steps

Conclusion on specifications of technical coefficients Model update for assessment of financial returns Extension to tracking environmental outcomes Explore relevant policy questions for animal health and feed options, others

Challenges Data on productivity and potential of livestock production systems Good estimates of research and related costs Model (inherent) limitation to specific range of policy questions Chain activities largely missing

Some Implications for Research and Policy

Analysis such as discussed could provide some direction for international/country direction for (agricultural) research . E.g., incentive(?) for countries’ commitment to vaccine development

Specific input needed from the grassroots, development (agencies) and policy communities on the ‘most relevant’ questions and outcomes

Some agreement on prioritizing the demands from diverse constituents

IMPACT-based recommendations typically long-run. In line with electoral tenures?

Data! Data! Data! Iterative process required between those who collect; and 2 groups of users

Thank you for your attention!

Acknowledgements

This work receives its funding from:

The Bill and Melinda Gates FoundationThe CGIAR Research Program on Policies,

Institutions, and Markets (PIM)The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,

Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

International Livestock Research InstituteBetter lives through livestock

Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries

ILRI  www.ilri.org