Download - 15 enahoro impact_evaluation_health_feeds
Application of an agricultural sector model to the assessment of advances in animal health
and livestock feed technologiesBy:
D. Enahoro, H. Kiara, B. Lukuyu, S. Msangi
Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains: bringing the research to bear on impact assessment, policy analysis and advocacy
for development.Accra, GHANA, 5 – 6 November, 2013
OutlineGlobal picture of livestock production and demand
Improved livestock production as engine for socio-economic development
Science-based options to bridging yield gaps
Animal disease control
Livestock feed development
Assessing options in the IMPACT framework
Next steps and limitations
Implications for research and policy
Livestock’s Global Importance
Livestock production accounts for 30% of land surface and 70% of available agricultural land globally
Contributes 40 percent of world agriculture GDP (mean 33% in developing countries, up to 80 in some)
Employs 1.3 billion; provides food, incomes, non-market benefits (do these exceed market benefits?)
Livestock products make up 23% (10%) total calories consumed/person in developed (developing) countries
Account for a third of aggregate protein intake
Constitute 17% of global agricultural trade
Meat products and developed countries dominate international trade in livestock products
Caveat: Livestock production can be a significant contributor to environmental stresses: water use and pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, land degradation …
Trends in Livestock Demand and Production
Figure 1: Meat Demand (‘000 MTs) in selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO)
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Meat Africa
Meat Asia
Meat C. America
Meat Europe
Meat N. America
Meat S. America
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Milk Africa
Milk Asia
Milk C. America
Milk Europe
Milk N. America
Milk S. America
Figure 2: Milk Demand (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO)
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
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120,000
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Africa
Asia
C. America
E. Union
N. America
S. America
Figure 3: Meat Production (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 - 2011 (FAOstat)
Figure 4: Net Trade in Meat (‘000 MTs), High export and import countries (FAOstat, 2000)
GERNZE
AUSFRA
ARGBRI
NETSCA
POLAEU
ALG GULCHN
BRAM
EXIT
A
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
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A Role for Livestock in Economic DevelopmentPotential
Large smallholder sector in many developing countries, e.g., 70 - 80% of national herd in Tanzania, Ethiopia
Up to 900 million poor livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia (Staal et al., 2009)
Global demand for livestock products to > double by 2050 Opportunities for improved production; incomes, nutrition,
health outcomes for the poor in developing countries?
Challenges … Low livestock yield/productivity in smallholder systems Issues with food safety, risks of animal-related diseases Weak markets, institutions, policies; barriers to trade Global climate change Competition for natural resources; environmental effects
Science-based solutions to livestock yield and production gaps
I. Livestock Feeds• Fodder development e.g.,
Napier grass• Dual purpose crop cultivar
development• Feed preservation and
processing e.g., fortified blocks, calf starters
II. Animal Health• East Coast Fever vaccine• Contagious Bovine
Pleuro-Pneumonia• Peste de Petites
Ruminants• African Swine fever• Zoonotic diseases
including Rift Valley fever
IV. Other• Improved livestock water
productivity• Livestock insurance
III. Genetics and Breeding• Breeding management*• Reproduction technologies
(embryo transfers, etc.)• Animal genetic resources
data systems• Marker-assisted
selections, etc.• Indigenous breeds
(knowledge of)
* Knowledge and application of principles …
East Coast Fever
Caused by intracellular protozoan Theilera parva
Calves and exotic breeds most susceptible
Endemic in 11 countries in E., C., and S. Africa
28.7 million cattle (20%) in high risk areas
1.1 m deaths, est. 300 m USD related losses/year
Slaughter, border restrictions, treatment, vector methods for control
Live vaccine available; high costs of administration
Fig. 5: Distribution of ECF in sub-Saharan Africa (McLeod and Randolph)
Tan
KenUga
Zim
Improved multi-component vaccine proposed
Livestock Feed Constraints
Poor feed quality, limited supplies constrain expansion of livestock production
Intensification pressures threaten system sustainability
Technologies needed to increase supplies & improve qualities using minimum land expansion
New varieties
Disease, pest etc. control, climate resistance
Feed processing options (Mogus, 2011) calf starters, mineral blocks, silage …
Assessing the Options
Application of the IMPACT model
Long run partial equilibrium model of world agricultural trade
45+ globally trade commodities, 115 regions/countries
300+ food production units (FPU)
8 global livestock production systems (LPS)
FPU-level crop production; FPU-LPS livestock production
FPU/LPS supply equations; country-level demand equations for food, feed, biofuels and other uses of commodities
Model projections (to 2050):
Production (crop areas, animal numbers, yields), demand, net trade, prices, malnutrition rates.
Rates of return on investments, production-related GHG emissions, etc.
On-going Data and Analysis Work
Specifying technical parameters for livestock technologies
Livestock production system (yield)
Food production system (feed availability and quality)
Country/region (demand)
Global (costs of international agricultural research)
Allocating global research costs. How are long-run returns affected by:
What you invest in?
How much?
Who bears the costs, when investments are made, etc.
Assessing returns
Producer profits, consumer prices, food security and nutrition, environment, etc.
Parameterizing Livestock Technology Options
ECF Stress Feed Constraint
Technology option Multi-comp. vaccine Calf starter
Pop. under stress 50-100% 50%
Reduce (calf) mortality 5-25% 60%
Increase births N/A 30%
Increase yield 5-15% 30-40%
R-to-Adoption timeline 2012 - 2022 2012 - 2015
Costs- R&D N/A 150,000 USD
- Extension N/A 10,000 USD
- Commercial 4.626 m USD** 250,000 USD
Exp. max adoption 5-30% N/A
Success probability 50% 70%
Table 1: Parameters for Evaluating a Vaccine and a Feed ProcessingTechnology for Cattle (Kenya only*)
*Cattle distribution in Kenya: Rangelands systems 26%; Mixed 25%; Urban 24% and Other 25% ** These are global / International costs
Next Steps and ChallengesNext Steps
Conclusion on specifications of technical coefficients Model update for assessment of financial returns Extension to tracking environmental outcomes Explore relevant policy questions for animal health and feed options, others
Challenges Data on productivity and potential of livestock production systems Good estimates of research and related costs Model (inherent) limitation to specific range of policy questions Chain activities largely missing
Some Implications for Research and Policy
Analysis such as discussed could provide some direction for international/country direction for (agricultural) research . E.g., incentive(?) for countries’ commitment to vaccine development
Specific input needed from the grassroots, development (agencies) and policy communities on the ‘most relevant’ questions and outcomes
Some agreement on prioritizing the demands from diverse constituents
IMPACT-based recommendations typically long-run. In line with electoral tenures?
Data! Data! Data! Iterative process required between those who collect; and 2 groups of users
Thank you for your attention!
Acknowledgements
This work receives its funding from:
The Bill and Melinda Gates FoundationThe CGIAR Research Program on Policies,
Institutions, and Markets (PIM)The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
International Livestock Research InstituteBetter lives through livestock
Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries
ILRI www.ilri.org