1h 2018 financial results · nickel («nornickel»or «nn») at the time of preparation of the...
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1
1H 2018 Financial Results Presentation August 13, 2018
Moscow
1H 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to PJSC MMC NorilskNickel («Nornickel» or «NN») at the time of preparation of the presentation. External or other factors mayhave impacted on the business of Norilsk Nickel and the content of this presentation, since its preparation.In addition all relevant information about Norilsk Nickel may not be included in this presentation. Norepresentation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability ofthe information.
Any forward looking information herein has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions whichmay prove to be incorrect. Forward looking statements, by the nature, involve risk and uncertainty andNorilsk Nickel cautions that actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in suchstatements. Reference should be made to the most recent Annual Report for a description of major riskfactors. There may be other factors, both known and unknown to Norilsk Nickel, which may have animpact on its performance. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecastby Norilsk Nickel, which does not undertake an obligation to release any revision to these statements.
Certain market share information and other statements in this presentation regarding the industry in whichNorilsk Nickel operates and the position of Norilsk Nickel relative to its competitors are based uponinformation made publicly available by other metals and mining companies or obtained from trade andbusiness organizations and associations. Such information and statements have not been verified by anyindependent sources, and measures of the financial or operating performance of Norilsk Nickel’scompetitors used in evaluating comparative positions may have been calculated in a different manner tothe corresponding measures employed by Norilsk Nickel.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitationto sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Norilsk Nickel, norshall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on inconnection with, any contract or investment decision.
2
1H 2018 Highlights
Consolidated Revenue
$5.8bnup 37% vs 1H’17
Realized metal prices (except for Pt)
Output of PGMs and Cu
Sales of Pd from stock
Pt price, Ni output
Free Cash Flow
$2.6bnup 5x vs 1H’17
EBITDA
$3.1bnup 77% vs 1H’17
Net Working Capital
$1.7bndown 20% vs Dec’31
EBITDA increase
Reduction of working capital
Lower CAPEX
Higher metal revenue
Implementation of operational efficiency programme
CAPEX
$0.5bndown 25% vs 1H’17
CAPEX was lower as large investment projects including active phase of Bystrinsky (Chita), modernization of Talnakh Concentrator and a number of energy infrastructure projects were completed in 2017
Annual 2017 dividends
$1.5bnAnnual dividends in the amount of USD 9.63 per share were announced in June 2018 and paid in July-August
Sale of palladium stock accumulated in 2017
Optimization of capital structure
3
Net Debt/EBITDA ratio
1.1xdown from 2.1x
Net debt/EBITDA ratio back to mid-cycle level. In January Moody’s rating agency has raised Nornickel credit rating to the investment grade level Baa3 and changed the outlook from «Stable» to «Positive»
0.47
0.75
0.39 0.360.27
1H 14 1H 15 1H 16 1H 17 1H 18
Health & Safety: Improving Safety Records
4
LTIFR: Improved to Record Low Levels Accident Statistics Improved
employees
LTIFR remains below the global mining industry average, down 25% y-o-y
Company is committed to create a strong safety culture at all levels of the organization
The management considers the health and safety of employees as the key strategic priority and reiterates its commitment to reduce fatalities to zero
Total recordable fatal accidents and lost time inquiries rates decreased 27% y-o-y
22 internal audits of Occupational Safety and Health management system were conducted in 1H 2018
37 employees violated cardinal health and safety rules (versus 55 in 1H 2017), of which 33 employees were fired (versus 44 in 1H 2017)
LTIFR (1*10-6)
31
48
2921
15
5
4
6
11
1H 14 1H 15 1H 16 1H 17 1H 18
Lost time injury Fatal
Commitment to Developing Sustainable Value
Independent Recognition of Company’s ESG Efforts
Assigned «С-» rating in December 2017
5
Rating updated in June 2018Governance score 5/10 (2)
Environmental score 4/10Social score 2/10
Upgraded to Average performer from UnderperformerScore of 58/100 (up from 49 in 2016)
Upgraded to «B-» from «CCC»in November 2017
Reiterated as an index constituent in July 2018Score of 3.1/5 (1) (up from 2.3 in 2017)
Ranked #4/33 in the first environmental ranking of Russian mining companies
Note: 1. of which 5 – is the highest; 2. of which 1- is low, 10 – is high risk
Signatory to UN Global Compact since 2016
Markets Overview
113 120
Jan-17 Jan-18
Metals Markets Outlook
Source: Company data Note: 1. Excluding ETFs, investment demand and industry stocks movement. Numbers are rounded separately
Metal
Stocks, days of
consumption
Market Balance
Forecast
Medium-term Fundamentals
Long-term Fundamentals
Non-exchange
Exchange
Ni Pd Pt Cu
Othernon-elastic
Other elastic
ETF
Non-exchange
Exchange
Deficit (1) Balanced(1)Deficit Balanced
47
80
(180)
(80)
2017 2018E 2019E
912
Jan-17 Dec-18
kt moz moz kt
(106)(124)
(87)
2017 2018E 2019E
kt
8042
Jan-17 Dec-18
7
-230 -1.4 -100
57 37
2017 2018E 2019E
(0.6)(0.8)
(1.5)
ETF
Other
+0.6
Jan-17 Dec-18 Jan-17 Dec-18
0.3 0.3 0.3
2017 2018E 2019E
moz moz kt
2.82.5
6.8
USA Europe China
GDP 2018 Q1, % y-o-y
Macro Fundamentals – Mixed Backdrop for Commodities
Strong GDP Growth Rates Globally, while Inflation is Picking Up…
… and USD Strengthening, which is Normally Inversely Correlated with Base Metal Prices
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
8
-0.1 0 0.1
0.5
1.1 1 1.1
1.8
2.5
1.9 2.02.1 2.2
2.7
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
USA CPI, % y-o-y
1,550
2,050
2,550
3,050
3,550
4,050
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul-17 May-18
US trade-weighted value of USD against major currences
LME index (rhs)
410
276
(84)(38) (12)
end of 2017 Consumed Relocated tobonded
Otherfinancing
end of July2018
228
71 56
197
292
200
15
3
45
44
20
486
410
276
Jan 2016 Dec 2017 end of July 2018
LME Full Plate LME Briquettes
LME Other shapes FP SHFE
Source: Company data, SMMNote: 1. As of July 31, 2018, 2. According to markets participants, customers
Nickel Stocks Are Rapidly Falling
Total Exchange Nickel Inventories: Down 33% or 136kt (1) YTD vs. 55kt in 2017
5 9
… and Not All Exchange Stocks Were Drawdown for Consumption
… More than Halved from Peak Levels of Early 2016, but Still Twice Above Normal…
Days of Consumption
1215-25 (2)
3743
92
CuSpot
Ni NormalLevel
Ni HistoricalAverage
Nickel Spot Nickel High
kt
kt
10
Historical Ni Price Correlations are Broken –Helped by the Battery Hype?
Source: LME, Metal Bulletin, SMM
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18LME Ni Cash Index
LME Co Cash Index
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
LME Ni Cash Index
SMM 304 Flat AVG Index
10
Ni vs. Stainless Steel:Break Up of Historical Relationship…
…and a New Relationship Established: Ni vs. Co price
11
Source: Company dataNote: 1. Revised of in-house forecast from March 2018
Nickel Market Short-Term Outlook: Forecast Larger Deficit
Ni Demand: Strong Growth in Stainless Steel in Indonesia and China and the Battery Sector
Nickel Market Balance: Sizeable Deficit to Extend in 2018
kt
2,141
2,343
2,505
143 (4)35
32
2017 ChinaIndonesia
STS
OtherAsiaSTS
Batteries Other 2018E 2019E
+9%
+7%
kt
11
Ni Supply: Growth Driven by NPI Production in Indonesia and China, Class 1 - Down
2,035
2,218
2,418
8592
25
(19)
2017 Indonesia NPI
China NPI Fe-Ni Class I 2018E 2019E
kt
(10)
(106) (124)
(87)
138
42
202184
163200
2016
Dem
and
Supply
2017
Dem
and
Supply
2018E
Dem
and
Supply
2019E
DeficitDeficitDeficitDeficit
+9%
+9%
Deficit forecast for 2018E revised from -15kt (1) to -124kt:
Faster-than-expected expansion of stainless output in Indonesia and China
NPI output curtailments due to environmental restrictions in China
Source: Company data, Trade Statistics
Record High NPI Output is Coupled With Major STS Growth in Indonesia & China Nickel Ore Supply to China is Rising on Rising Ore Exports from Indonesia
Ni Ore Export from Indonesia Ramps Up Quickly: 2018YTD Quotas for 34 Mln Exports Have Been Granted
508 489386 366 388
480 500
29 87173
259350
508 489415 453
561
739
850
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
China Indonesia
Global NPI Production: Supply from China & Indonesia Expected to Grow Strongly in 2018-19
kt, Ni Units
12 12
4.9 6.1
34
ore, mln (wmt)
Actual exports in 2017
49 61
342
Ni unites, contained kt
>50% NPI integrated into SS mills
+10%
41
11 18 20
30
36
34 31 29
30 30
71
47
34 31 34
48 50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Indonesia Philippines Others
+10%
+41%
+4%
mt of ore
1H 18: Philippines +2% Y-o-Y1H 18: Indonesia 6-fold Y-o-Y
mln t
7.2 7.6 8.0 8.6 8.8
10.9 11.8 13.014.7 16.3
4.04.5 4.6
5.05.8
22.123.9
25.628.2
30.9
2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
200S 300S 400S+8% +10% +13% +10%
+8%+7%
+10%+9%
Strong Nickel Demand Growth in Stainless in China and Indonesia Combined
Y-o-Y
Ni Demand, Y-oY
Actual exports in Jan-Apr 2018
2018 YTD quotas
500
700
900
1,100
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Capex Expansion (Sulphides+HPALs) (LHS)
Capex Sustaining (Sulphides+HPALs) (LHS)
Production volume of Class I & Chemicals
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Companies official reports, Company Data
Note: 1. Analysis is based on 46 sulpide and laterite projects
Limited Growth Potential for Nickel Supply from Sulphide Ores
Underinvestments Impacting Class I and Battery Grade Ni Production(1)
Nickel Production Increase is Driven Mostly byLow-grade Ni Products from Laterite Ores while Ni Production from Sulphide Ores is Down
13
<2
USD mln kt of Ni units kt of Ni
13
-60%
2,035
2,218
2,418
2017 Class I &Chemicals
Class II 2018E Class I &Chemicals
Class II 2019E
+9%
+9%
Ni units, mtNi units, mt
Growing Volumes of Low Grade Ni Feed Unlocks Class 1 Ni for Other Applications
Source: Company dataNote: 1. As of July 31, 2018
2018 Production/Consumption FlowSource of Ore
Substitution potential
Suphide Ore
HPAL/Laterite
Laterite Ore
0.7
0.3
1.2
NiSO4 (Ni 22%)Other
NPI (Ni 8-12%)
Fe-Ni (Ni 20-35%)
Cathode/Briqs/Special Forms
(Ni 99.9%)
Batteries
Alloys/Special Steel/Plating
Other industries
Stainless Steel
Ni ProductsNi Feed
0.7
0.4
0.10.1
0.9
1.7
0.5
0.1
Substitution potential
Ni Consumption
1414
Class 2 Ni
Class 1 Ni
200
76
Briqs Other forms
Exchange stocks (1)
Palladium Market - Structural Deficit Continue in 2018-2019
Source: Company dataNote: 1. Excluding ETFs, investment demand and industry stocks movement. Numbers are rounded separately
Global Palladium Market Balance: Apparent Production/Consumption Deficit Expanding in 2018
( 0.1)
( 0.4)
( 0.2)
( 0.5)
( 0.6)
( 1.1)
( 0.6)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
moz Surplus/(Deficit) (1)
Automotive is the Main Driver of Consumption Growth while Recycling is a Major Source of Additional Supply
koz
15 15
Drivers: USA
(640)
300 100 (840)
620
(60)
(1,520)
2017 Demand Supply 2018E Demand Supply 2019E
Platinum Market Remains Balanced on Stable Demand
moz
Global Platinum Market Balance: Apparent Deficit Has Evaporated on Rising Supply
Surplus/(Deficit) (1)
Source: Company dataNote: 1. Excluding ETFs, investment demand and industry stocks movement. Numbers are rounded separately
1.0
0.8
0.5
( 0.8)
0.0
0.2 0.3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Recovery of Demand Expected to Match Supply in 2019
koz
16 16
SA SA
350
(10)(30)
330
160
160 330
2017 Demand Supply 2018E Demand Supply 2019E
Key Auto Trends Impacting Metals Demand
Demand Implications
PGMsPd PtNi
Sustainable global automotive production growth
Diesel substitution by gasoline vehicles
Growth of hybrids market share
Growth of SUVs market share and engine downsizing termination
Strengthening in emissions legislation
Electric vehicles/batteries
NOx
17
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
Speculative Long Speculative Short
Speculative Net Pd price (rhs)
18
Decrease in ETF Holdings, NYMEX Longs Liquidation and Fears of Further Sanctions on Russia Increased Pd Price Volatility in 1H 2018
Net Outflows from Palladium ETFs Continued……while Net Long Positions on NYMEX were Reduced due to Profit Taking by Investors –Negative for Pd Price
moz
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18
-740 koz (-43%) (1)
Source: Company data, UBS, СFTC, ReutersNote: 1. January 2017-June 2018 18
koz USD/oz
Premium of Palladium to Platinum is Sustainable in the Mid-Term
Palladium Established a Sustainable Premium to Platinum on Stronger Fundamentals…
… as Pd Loadings in Gasoline Vehicles are Supported by Higher Fair Value-in-Use
Source: Company data
USD/oz
19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Pt Pd
Turbocharging, hybridization & Real Driving Emissions testing limit substitution
opportunity
Palladium is more efficient than platinum in current gasoline engine exhaust gas after
treatment systems
Palladium premium over platinum is sustainable in the medium term
2+ years required to certify and roll out new loadings
55
44
38
47
39
33
2011 2017 2018YTD 2019E
Western Europe Germany
Current Changes in Autos’ Mix are Not Short-Lived
Source: Company data, LMC Automotive, JATO, ACEANote: LV – light vehicles, BEV – battery electric vehicles, PHEV – plug-in hybrids. Numbers are rounded separately.
Electric Vehicles Grow Fast, Pd Intensive HybribdsKeep Up Pace
mln units
Share of Diesel in New Passenger Cars in Europe Continues to Decline
share in global LV production %
20
3% 4% 6% 9%
2.2 2.4
3.2
5.7
0.4 0.5
0.9
1.3
0.51
1.7
2.4
2016 2017 2018E 2019E
HEV PHEV BEV
1%4%
8%
5%
9%
2017 2020E 2025E
Market consensus Nornickel consensus
CAGR: 28% (1)
Max - 17 mln
Min - 3 mln
Li-ion EV Battery Trends and Their Impact on Nickel Demand
Technological Shift to More Ni-intensive NCM Driven by Higher Energy Density Requirements and Substitution Away from Cobalt
NCM1:1:1
2015
NCM6:2:2
NCM8:1:1
<2020 >2020
Ni weight content in cathode material
Dominating NCM Chemistry
Global Consumption of Ni in EV Li-ion Batteries could Reach 365kt if Consensus Materializes
34331
2017 2020E 2025E
Actual demand(as of 2017)
Incremental demand
Ni, kt
185
365
Wide Range of EVs Forecasts due to Major Uncertainties Regarding the Evolution of Battery Technologies
21
20% 36% 48%
Source: Company data, market consensusNote: 1. CAGR for the period 2016-2025E. Ni consumption in batteries shown at the precursor material basis
Autos Driven Metals Demand Outlook in 2017-2025E
Source: Company dataNote: 1. Assuming additional 18 mln units of light vehicle sales, 2. Ni consumption in batteries shown at the precursor material basis
Pd
moz
Pd in catalytic converters
Ni in batteries
Ni in stainless steel, alloys and parts
Cu in electric engines and generators
Cu in wires
Cu in charging stations
Consumption
0.7
2.7
1.6
0.4
ICE only Hybrids PHEV Total
kt
244
331
42
45
BEV PHEV Hybrids Total
390
860
420
Chargingstations
Hybridsinc PHEV
BEV Total
kt
Metal
Ni Cu
22
1,670
Norilsk Nickel’s Metal Basket Content by Light Vehicle Type
Source: Company estimates, LMC Automotive, Bloomberg;Note: 1. CAGR for 2017-2025E, 2. Expected market share in 2025 based on production; 3. Excluding additional infrastructure demand of 1-8 kg per charger; 4. Metal values calculated at spot prices as of July 4, 2018
CAGR1
Market Share2
Ni
Cu
PGM
0%
Gasoline
61%
0%
Diesel
17%
2-4 kg 2-4 kg
+27%
Hybridincl. PHEV
17%
+26%
BEV
6%
5–15 kg 30–110 kg
+21%
FCEV
<1%
2–3 kg
20-25 kg 20-25 kg 75-803 kg45-50 kg 70-75 kg
3-6 g2-5 g 2-6 g-
25-35 g
Pt:Pd ratio 1:4 8:1 1:4
+Batteries
+Electric Motor, Generator Winding
Fuel CellCatalysts
Stainless Steel & Parts
Wires & Parts
Metal value per vehicle, USD (4) $250-420 $250-390 $510-730 Up to $1,700 Up to $1,400
23
23.0
23.5
24.1
2017 China Others 2018E China Others 2019E
+2.4%
+2.5%
Copper Market: Balanced Market, Inventories Slightly Declining
Copper Price Strong, Exchange Stocks Have Been Trending Lower
China Remains the Main Driver of Global Copper Consumption Growth in 2018-2019
kt USD/t
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, as of July 2018
mt
24
Copper Market Balance:Marginal Deficits in 2018-2019
160 150
70
200
80
(180)
(80)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
kt
24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18
LME Copper Invertory
COMEX
SHFE
LME Copper Cash
Copper: Demand Concerns Add to Supply Disruptions
Copper Supply Disruptions: 2018 YTD – Well Below Expectations
Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie
mt
1.4
0.90.8
1.0 1.0
0.6
1.11.2
1.0 1.0
0.2
8%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%
6%6%
5% 5%
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
Copper mine disruptions (ex.cost related closures)
% of original production target
2525
LME Copper Price in 2018 Declines as US-China Trade Tensions Rise
5,500
6,500
7,500
01-Jun-18 16-Jun-18 01-Jul-18 16-Jul-18 31-Jul-18
USD/t
Key supply disruptions events
Industry wide labour strikes in Chile and Peru – did not materialize
Potential labour strike at Escondida – still a possibility
Resolution on Grasberg in Indonesia - positive
New demand concerns
Negative demand implications from US-China trade tensions
RMB depreciation vs. USD
Tariffs on USD34 bn of Chinese imports have been announced
Tariffs on USD200 bn of Chinese-made products have been unveiled
1H 2018 Financial Results
27
Note 1. All information is reported on the 100% basis, excluding sales of metals and semi-products purchased from third parties.Note 2. Metal volumes represent metals contained in semi-products.
99 98
7
1H’17
12
1H’18
106 101
-5%
International 3rd party feedRussian feed Semi-product(Russian feed)(2)
173 191
1H’181H’17
6 310
182201
Nickel(1) [kt] Copper(1) [kt]
Base Metals Sales: Reduction of 3rd Parties FeedPGM Sales: Additional Sales of Metals from Stock, but Reduction of 3rd Parties Feed
Realized Metals Prices: All Up but Platinum on Strong Commodity Markets
Sales Breakdown by Metals: Palladium is the Largest Contributor to the Revenue
1,264 1,505
23
1,328
1H’17 1H’18
2341
1,528
Russian feedSemi-product (Russian feed)(2) International 3rd party feed
299 349
1H’18
12
1H’17
4318353
+11%
Palladium(1) [koz] Platinum(1) [koz]
1H’181H’17
10,067
14,141
+40%
Nickel[USD/t]
Copper[USD/t]
Palladium[USD/koz]
Platinum[USD/koz]
1H’17 1H’18
5,7896,989
+21%791
1H’181H’17
+30%
962 930
1H’17 1H’18
-3%
Metal Sales Volumes and Realized Prices
Platinum 8%5%
31%
29%
27%
1H’17
5%6%
26%
27%
36%
1H’18
Other
Semi-product
Copper
Nickel
Palladium
3,896
5,473
+40%
+15%+10%
7
1,032
[USD mln]
27
315 335
-10
316
225
1,065 212
431
28
[USD mln]
Nickel Revenue: Up 34% on Higher Prices Copper Revenue: Up 32% on Higher Prices and Sales Volumes
Palladium Revenue: Up 62% on Higher Prices and Sales Volumes
Platinum Revenue: Up 6% on Higher Sales Volumes
Metals Revenue: Up on Strong Commodity Markets and Sales Volumes
[USD mln]
[USD mln] [USD mln]
-51
Realizedprice
1,114
Salesvolume
1H’17 1H’18
1,494
+34%1,405
1H’17 Salesvolume
Realizedprice
1H’18
128
+32%
Realizedprice
1H’18Salesvolume
1H’17
30
+6%
Resale1H’17 Realizedprice
Salesvolume
1H’18
1,206203
1,950
+62%
28
1,068
225
29
Consolidated Metal RevenueMetal Revenue Up on Higher Prices and Sales Volumes
Geographical Breakdown of Metal Sales
[USD mln] [% of USD sales]
North and SouthAmerica
Europe
Russia and CIS
Asia
1H’17 1H’18
7% 5%55% 57%
1 2
23% 26%15% 12%
Increase of realized metal prices of all
metals, but platinum, on strong commodity
markets
Higher metal sales volume due to the sale
of palladium from stock and higher copper
volumes on Rostec concentrate processing
Re-sale of metals (mainly palladium)
Europe remains the single largest market accounting for 57% of metal
sales
Increase of sales to Asia to 26%, due to higher physical sales of
copper and nickel, mainly to China
North and South America sales reduced to 12% of total: physical sales
volumes increased but less than sales to Asia
1H’17 Sales volume
Realized price
Re-sales of metals
1H’18
3,896
2845,473
Macrofactors
CompanyperformanceUSD 509 mln
29
1,7952,104
1,744
2,251
3,079
47% 48%
41%
46%
53%
1H'16 2H'16 1H'17 2H'17 1H'18
[USD mln]
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
Higher realized metal prices (+USD1,007 mln)
Depreciation of RUB against USD (+USD29 mln)
Domestic inflation (-USD64 mln)
Decrease in expenses on one-off social projects (+USD91 mln)
Higher production volumes and operating efficiency (+USD236 mln)
1H 2018 EBITDA Bridge vs. 1H 2017
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
12p.p.
77%
Macrofactors+972
One-offfactors
+91
Operatingfactors+272
1,744
3,079
1,007 29
-64
91 236 36
1H 2017 Commodityprices
FOREX Domesticinflation
Socialprojects
Productionvolume
Other 1H 2018
[USD mln]
EBITDA margin back to industry leading 53%
30
682 675
337 370
106 91
277 288
1H'17 - adjusted by FX, metals&semiproducts
1H'18 - adjusted bymetals&
semiproducts
1,402 1,424
+2%
Operating Cash Costs Adjusted by FX, Refined Metal and Semi-product(1) Purchase at +2% - below Inflation
36%
24%
20%
5%
15% Labour
Metals and semi-products
Materialsand fuel
Services
Other
1,879
Operating Cash Costs Changes in 1H 2018
694 675
276 455
342370105 91 280
288
1H'17 1H'18
1,6971,879
+11%
Reported Operating Cash Costs: Up on Purchased Metals and Copper Concentrate
1H 2018 Cash Costs Breakdown
Operating Cash Costs
[USD mln]
Other +4%
Services
Materials and fuel +10%
-14%
Labour -1%
YoY change, %
Other +3%
Services
+65%
Materials and fuel+8%
Semi-products and metals
-13%
Labour -3%
YoY change, %
[%]
[USD mln]
Note 1. Including Rostec and Nkomati
1,697
1,879
-20
-3619 5591
62 11
1H'17 Forex Commodityprices
Domesticinflation
Productionfactors
Headcount
reduction
Metalpurchase
Other 1H'18
[USD mln]Macrofactors
+54
Operatingfactors+128
31
Net Working Capital in 2016 – 2018
39
257
-129-213
-480
96
455
2,149
1,719
~1,000
31 Dec2016
31 Dec2017
FOREX Commodityprices,
inflation
Accumulationof metalinventory
Decreasein palladium
stock
Optimizationof capitalstructure
Other 30 Jun2018
est.31 Dec2018
[USD mln]Operating factors
-340Macro factors
-90
32
512
2,600
-
175
(63)
761
1,335
(50)(70)
1H 2017 Capex Other investingactivities
WC change Changein EBITDA
Othernon-cash
items
Incometax paid
1H 2018
1,591
(140)
[USD mln]
1H2018 FCF Increased 5-Fold on EBITDA Growth and Release of Working Capital
33
OPEX(1)
CAPEX
At USD/RUB rate of 62.8, 1% change in exchange rate translatesinto EBITDA change of USD34.7 mln, FCF change of USD53.4 mln
CAPEX and OPEX Break Up by Currency
Financial Results Sensitivity to USD/RUB Exchange Rate
Note: 1. Cash costs (change in stock excluded), Cost of non-metal sales, SG&A; normalized by cost of refined metals for resale 34
86%
14%
RUB
Non-RUB
1H 2018
77%
23%
1H 2017
RUB
Non-RUB
86%
14%
RUB
Non-RUB
1H 2017
90%
10%
RUB
Non-RUB
1H 2018
43.5
39.6
36.334.7
31.129.0
67.0
60.9
55.853.4
47.8
44.6
0
20
40
60
80[USD mln]
exchange rateas at
30.06.2018
FCF
EBITDA
55.050.0 60.0
USD/RUB
62.8 75.070.0
35
[USD mln]
CAPEX(1) Breakdown by Projects CAPEX Allocation(1): Commercial and Stay-in-Business
Allocation of Capital Investments
[USD mln]
258
142
75
62
146
70
69
134
68
69
53
17
36
42
1H’181H’17
Other mine development
6
Other commercial
GRK Bystrinskoe (Chita)
711
Kola
Talnakh Concentrator
Skalisty mine
Projects related to theshutdown of Nickel Plant
536
0.9
0.2
Note: 1. CAPEX in Cash flow statement, net of VAT
Other stay-in-business
Commercial
Stay-in-business 299
181
412
355
1H'17 1H'18
536
711
35
Historical Leverage: ND/EBITDA Back to 1.1x
Balance Sheet Management
Liquidity and Debt Repayment Schedule Change in Debt Structure
2.6
2020
3.4
Liquidity position
2022+2018 20212019
6.0
0.1 0.2
2.02.4
4.5
Debt repaymentsAvaliable credit lines Cash
[USD bn]
9% 1%
91%99%
ST
2017
LT
1H 2018
15% 13%
85% 87%
2017 1H 2018
Non-RUB
RUB
62%51%
38%49%
2017 1H 2018
FLOAT
FIX
Diversification of the portfolio of available credit lines: new credit lines were signed for the total amount of USD1.6bn, increasing the total amount of available credit lines to USD3.1bn (including USD2.6bn of committed lines)
Working capital optimization: USD600m of advances received from the Company’s customers
Reduction of average cost of debt by over USD 100m in 2018: driven by repricing of several credit lines and refinancing of relatively expensive liabilities, incl. redemption of USD 750m Eurobonds due April 2018, at the cost of 5-year USD 2.5bn syndicated term loan, secured in December 2017 at the interest rate of LIBOR + 1.50%
In January 2018, Moody’s assigned Baa3 issuer rating to the Company and changed outlook from “Stable” to “Positive”. As of June 30, 2018, the Company maintained investment grade credit ratings from all three major international rating agencies
Proactive Debt Management
Debt Maturity Debt Currency Debt Type
[USD bn]
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015
2.1x
0.6x
20172014 2016
1.0x1.2x
1.1x
1H 2018
3.5 4.2 4.5
8.25.8
Net debt/EBITDA Net debt
36
Projects Overview
Skalisty Mine: Project Development on Track
38
Project overview
Project timeline
Project update
Norilsk Production capacity – 2.4 Mtpa
Ore reserves – 65.9 Mt
Project IRR (as of 01.2013) – 29%
Total Capex 2013–2025 of USD2.3 bn
Total mining capacity 1.75 Mtpa in 2017
Next launch – 500 Ktpa in 2018, 2.4 Mtpa by 2024
Completion of ventilation shaft #10 in 2018
Completion of main shaft in 2019
Completion of infrastructure construction in 2020
Remaining Capex 2018–2025: USD1.0 bn
Progress by 1H 2018:
Shaft sinking:
2.024 m Shaft №10 (98% complete)
1.779 mSkip-cage shaft (main shaft)(87% complete)
Skalisty Mine
Upgrade of Kola Nickel Refinery: Tankhouse Refurbishment
39
Project overview
Project timeline
Project update
Monchegorsk
Murmansk
CapEx 2018: USD170 mln
Construction underway at all facilities
Construction progress: ~70% completed
Completion of infrastructure by the end of 2018
Gradual capacity commissioning by the end of 2018
Reaching design capacity and parameters in 2019
Target: increase the nickel refining capacity from
145 ktpa to 190 ktpa
Increase in nickel recovery from high-grade
matte by over 1.0%
Optimisation of the work-in-progress inventory
levels
Total Capex of USD400 mln
Comprehensive Environmental Program: Current Status of the Sulphur Project at Polar Division
40
Project overview
Project timeline
Project update
Norilsk Target: reduction of Sulphur dioxide emissions in
Norilsk industrial area by 75% by 2023 vs. 2015
Construction of new converters (replacing converter
furnaces at Copper Smelter) at Nadezhda Smellter
Expansion and upgrade of sulphur production facilities
at Copper Smelter; Construction of Sulphur Capture and
neutralization at Nadezhda smelter
Total Capex of USD2.5 bn
Preparation of engineering project documentation and
obtaining the government watchdog (Glavgosexpertisa)
approval for the project in 2018
Project completion in 2022
Preparation of the construction site in progress at
Nadezhda Smelter
Arranging a tender to select a contractor for further
implementation of the project at Copper Plant
Nadezhda Smelter
41
▪ Project overview
Project timeline
Project update
Nickel TownMurmansk
Contract for engineering and equipment supplies
singed with Outotec
Utility systems dismantling and relocation
completed
Construction of the copper-nickel ore concentrate
shipment facility at Zapolyarny in 2018
Construction of flotation shop for separation of ore
concentrate to low-grade and high grade concentrates
Decommission of ore-thermal furnace №3 in the
smelting shop
Target: reduction of Kola smelting operations at the
Norwegian border by 50% by 2019 vs. 2015
Shut down of ore-thermal furnace in the smelting
shop
Sale of low-grade concentrate from Kola MMC to third
parties
Total Capex of USD80 mln
Comprehensive Environmental Program: Optimization of Smelting Operations at Kola Refinery
Hot commissioning started in 2017
Ore reserves: 333 Mt, grades: Cu – circa 0.7%; Fe – circa 23%; Au – circa 0.9 g/t
Site infrastructure: open pit, concentrator (grinding and flotation), camp, etc.
External infrastructure:
Project overview
234 km of 220 kV power lines constructed
223 km railway to the site constructed (public–private partnership)
Project highlights
Annual production volumes
Cu (in concentrate) Kt 20-25 65
Au (in concentrate) Koz 90-110 220
Fe (1) (magnetite concentrate)
Kt 570-630 2 100
2018 2021+~1.7CAPEX
0.4–0.5EBITDA’20+
USD bn
0.3-0.4Cash cost
42
Bystrinsky (Chita Copper) Project
Note: 1. Fe – 66%
First shipment of copper concentrate to customers in May 2018
1H 2018 positive EBITDA contribution of USD5 mln
Project completion – commercial operation by 4Q 2018
Project update
Bystrinsky (Chita Copper) Project Update
43
Shipment Facility – Loading of Big Bags Milling
Milling Flotation
Source: Company data
43
44
Update on Infrastructure Projects
Power plant 3
Ust-Khantayskaya hydropower plant
Kureyskaya hydro power plant
Gas pipeline
Power plant 1
Pelyatkinskoye field
Messoyakhskoyefield
Severo-Soleninskoye field
Yuzhno-Soleninskoye field
Port
AirportFuel storages
Logistics infrastructure:Reconstruction of critical facilities (ports, fuel storages and supply infrastructure etc.)
Power plant 2Gas transportation system:
modernization of gas distribution networks
Power supply:Gradual replacement of retiring power units (550 MW)
Utilities:Comprehensive programmes to replace / modernize power lines , gas distribution networks, clean water supply system in Dudinka, etc.
Bolshoi Leontievsky Island
Dudinka
Norilsk
Bolshaya Kheta River
Power line
Total Capex of USD200 mln for 2018
Production Guidance for 2018 (1)
kt
Ni Pd
kt
Cu
Note: 1. Metals produced from own feedstock2. Norilsk Nickel owns 50.1% of Bystrinsky (Chita Copper) Project. Production results shown on 100% basis and fully consolidated in Company’s financial and operational results
45
197210 210-215
2016 2017 2018E
344398 400-420
20-25 (2)
2016 2017 2018ERussian own feed Chita
344
398420-445
2,5262,728 2,630-2,725
2016 2017 2018E
Pt
koz
koz
610650 600-650
2016 2017 2018E
2H 2018 Outlook
Note 1. Metal production guidance from Russian feed including Bystrinskiy GOKNote 2. Assuming 2H 2018 average exchange rate USD/RUB 61.6
Cu
Metals market outlook
Ni
Pd
Pt
Capex
2018 Capex of USD1.9 billion(2)
Working capital
USD1.0 billion by 2018YE
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0-1.3x by 2018YE subject to market conditions, FX rates and amount of interim dividend
Interim dividend
To be announced in August and payable in October 2018
Market to remain fairly balanced, as risk of labour-related supply disruptions is fading away, but demand disruptions concerns emerged
Market deficit to widen due to robust demand growth from automotive sector and lower primary supply
Market to remain in small surplus , further reduction of primary supply and potential industry rationalization feasible
Neutral Positive 2018 Metal Production Guidance(1)
Ni (kt) Cu (kt) Pd (koz) Pt (koz)
20-25(Chita)
600-6502,630-2,725
210-215
400-420(ex.Chita)
46
Market deficit to remain as production growth in Indonesia and Philippines is balanced out by strong demand, inventories drawdown to continue
Q&A Session