2

8. Population and Development World population growth, 1980-2005, was

1.6% yearly, increasing the population from 4.4 billion to 6.5 billion.

LDC population growth during the same period was 2% yearly.

3

Major topics Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs Demographic transition, death rates (DRs), &

birth rates (BRs) Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between

population & economic growth Food-population balance Is population growth an obstacle to economic

growth? Population pyramids Reducing fertility

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5

Population growth in DCs & LDCs

DCs & transitional economies < 0.8% p.a. Some E & SE Asian & Latin American

economies 0.8-1.8% p.a. Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa,

South Asia & Central America >1.8% p.a.

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7

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World Population Growth by Region Africa 2000-25 projected 2.4% yearly

growth (38 BR & 14 DR) Latin America 2000-25 1.3% yearly

growth Asia 2000-25 1.1% yearly growth

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TABLE 8-1. The 10 Countries with the Largest Population: 2000 and 2025 (projected)

Country Total Population, 2000 (millions)

(world ranking in parentheses)

Projected Population, 2025

(millions)

(world ranking in parentheses)

China 1261 (1) 1464 (1)

India 1014 (2) 1377 (2)

U.S. 275 (3) 338 (3)

Indonesia 225 (4) 301 (4)

Brazil 173 (5) 201 (7)

Russia 146 (6) 136 (9)

Pakistan 142 (7) 213 (5)

Bangladesh 129 (8) 177 (8)

Japan 127 (9) 126 (13)

Nigeria 123 (10) 204 (6)

Mexico 97 (11) 134 (10)

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World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to 2005

Growth 2.3% yearly at peak in 1960. Growth 1.3% 2005. Expected growth 0.8% in 2025. See Figure 8-4.

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12

What is the demographic transition?

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Demographic Transition Period of rapid population growth between

preindustrial stable population (high BR & DR) and later modern stable population (low BR & DR)

DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to population explosion

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Western & non-Western patterns After 1650, Western countries increased

population more rapidly & steadily 1930-2005 population growth rate declined Except for China & Japan, non-Western

countries did not experience population growth until after 1930

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Stage 1: high fertility & mortality Most of humankind’s history Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry,

agriculture, trade, transport & communication. Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous Fertility must match morality for populations to

survive Large families a blessing from God

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Stage 2: declining mortality Agricultural production increased –

improved trade, transport, & communication

Death from infectious diseases declined Nutrition improved Patterns differ between early DCs & LDCs

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TABLE 8-2. Life Expectancy at Birth, by Region, 1935–39, 1950–55, 1965–70, 1975–80, 1985–90, 1994,and 2003

Region Years

1935–39 1950–55 1965–70 1975–80 1985–90 1994 2003

South Asia 30 41 46 49 56 60 62

East Asia 30 45 55 61 71 71 72

Africa 30 36 43 47 54 55 52

Latin America 40 52 60 64 68 68 71

China n.a.a 48 60 64 70 70 71

Developingcountries

32 42 49 54 61 63 65

Developedcountries

56 65 70 73 76 76 76

aNot available.

Sources: Morawetz 1977:48; World Bank 1980b:442–447; Sewell, Tucker, and contributors 1988:246; PopulationReference Bureau 1994; Population Reference Bureau 2003.

For earlier comparisons, Coale (2003:114) states

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Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth Africa’s fall in life expectancy from the

1990s to the first decade of the 21st century is an anomaly among LDCs

How do you explain this anomaly?

21

How do you explain Africa’s fall in life expectancy?

Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

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Stage 3: Declining Fertility Family planning programs World’s total fertility rate –the number of

children born to the average woman during her reproductive years – 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987 (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8)

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Stage 4: Stationary population (low DR & BR) Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark,

Belgium, Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, & Bulgaria.

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Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic Development (Malthus vs. Simon) Malthusian view: population increases

geometrically – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc., outstripping food supply, increasing arithmetically – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Simon: more people increase the stock of knowledge through additional learning gains, compounded by the quickening effect of greater competition and total demand spurring “necessity as the mother for invention.” Division of labor & economies of large-scale production increase as markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire population policy.

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Figure 8-9 World Grain Production Per Person, 1960-2001 (kg)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Years

Does this just reflect a shift from consumption of grain to other foods as income increases?

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UN Development Program (2003:87) If all the food produced worldwide were

distributed equally, every person would be able to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a day). . .

Hunger is more than just a lack of available food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food entitlement and deprivations in related essential services (health care, education, safe drinking water, adequate sanitation).

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Energy limitations Substantial gains made in food productivity

during the late 20th century were partly dependent on cheap, abundant energy.

Will higher real energy prices reduce further gains in food productivity?

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What other costs are there to high fertility & rapid population growth other than diminishing returns to land? Urbanization & congestion Rapid labor force growth & increasing

unemployment (Ch. 9) Higher dependency ratios – ratio of

nonworking population to working-age population (see next two slides)

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Econometric studies (p. 296)

High fertility & rapid population growth hinder growth of GNP per capita.

Barro (1997) – increased resources devoted to child rearing instead of production contribute to negative relationship between population growth rate & GNP per capita.

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TABLE 8-3 Average Number of Children Born per Couple, by Selected Characteristics, in India,1961–65 (by income, education, residence, and occupation)

Characteristics Average Number of Children

Household income and expenditure (1960–61)

Up to Rs 10 per month 3.40

Rs 11–20 per month 3.02

Rs 21–30 per month 2.95

Rs 30 and over per month 2.70

Educational level attained by women (1961)

Illiterate 3.5

Primary school 3.4

Secondary school 3.1

College 3.0

Postgraduate 2.5

Residence (1963–64)

Urban 3.19

Rural 3.76

Occupation of head of household

Agriculture 4.4

Industry 4.2

Professional – law, medicine, teaching 3.7

Average for all occupations 4.3

Source: Uppal 1977:41.

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Previous slide (from p. 302)Poor people, poorly educated people, rural

people, and those in agriculture have higher birth rates than others

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Population & development Bucharest conference – “Development is

the best contraceptive” Crucial role of education & labor force

participation of women

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Strategies for reducing fertility Birth control programs Socioeconomic development (see next

slide) Development or family planning?

- Both are essential to reduce fertility rates