POPULATION ISSUES

Population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to over 6 (7) billion today.

80% of the world’s population lives in LDC’s

90% of the world’s population lives above the equator.

People are living longer in virtually all countries. Why? Medical revolution

Arithmetic (linear) growth: 2,4,6,8,10,12, etc….

Exponential growth: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, etc….

Population grows exponentially.

Define demographics

Doubling time

The number of years it takes for a population to double.

At a rate of 3% growth per year, a population will double in 25 years.

For now and the foreseeable future, most live in Africa and Asia.Technology has allowed people to adapt to natural constraints in growth.

First Agricultural (Neolithic) Revolution

Second Agricultural Revolution

Third Agricultural Revolution

Industrial Revolution

(Green Revolution)

Replacement rate is 2.1%

When does a country become overpopulated?

When it exceeds its carrying capacity (when it can’t feed its people.)

Terminology:

Rate of natural increase Affected by economic development (healthcare, employment, nutrition, education.)

Crude birth rate Crude death rate

Fertility rateInfant mortality rate

Crude birth rate minus crude death rate (+ - immigration

The better women are educated, the lower the RNI.

Gender empowerment

Cultural traditions:

Women are expected to stay home and raise children.

Public policy:

China, India, France

How is the One Baby Policy affecting China’s future?

Population Sustainability

MDC’s make up around 25% of the world’s population, yet use 75% of the world’s resources.

The percentage of the world’s surface that is fit or habitation is called the “ecumene.”

Population density:

Arithmetic density

Physiological density Agricultural (arable) density

The heaviest populated regions.

Is population density a good gauge for development?

Demographic Transition Model

Stage I: high birth rate, high death rate, little growth.

This describes most of human history.

Stage II: high birth rate, low death rate.

Industrial and medical revolution.

Stage III: low birth rate, low death rate.

A generally balanced population.

MDC’s & LDC’s?

Stage IV: low birth rate, low death rate.

Population is not being replaced, population decline.

There are geographers who maintain there are five stages. The five stage model would be:

Stage I: high birth rate, high death rate. Little or no population growth

Stage II: high birth rate, declining death rate Population growth accelerates, can lead to overpopulation

Stage III: lower birth rate, low death rate. Falling birth and death rate, population increase slows down

Stage IV: birth rate is low yet still higher than death rate- population barely grows

Stage V: death rate exceeds birth rate --population decreases

Thomas Malthus

Economist writing at the turn of the 18th/19th centuries, Malthus predicted dire consequences as the population began to boom. He stated the population would soon exceed the food supply. Based on what he saw in Britain during the Industrial Revolution.

What did he not account for?

Note: if there is no majority group but multiple minorities, the group with the highest growth rate will eventually become the majority and population growth will mirror their growth.

Neo-Malthusians:They are predicting the population will outstrip resources.

technology

Population pyramids

Displays the gender and age of age groups.

Which are LDC’s, which are MDC’s?

Give an example of a country (region) that would match each pyramid.

You can predict trends for the future.

Population composition matters.

The age structure of a population with 50% young people has a vastly different set of problems in the future as opposed to a country with a majority of older people.

Several developing countries, India and China in particular, have issues with the male/female imbalance.

Moving population pyramid of China

Demographic momentum

The time (process) it takes for a population to begin to drop even after the birth rate has been reduced.

Think of the time it takes a car to stop after you have applied the brakes.

What does this pyramid imply economically regarding the Chinese population in Indonesia?

Dependency ratio The number in the population that is below 15 and over 65 (the dependants.)

Remember, the population in many MDC’s is declining, while most of the population growth in the world is coming in LDC’s.

How will this affect: poverty, development, migration, culture, resources, conflict?

30 d N

IF YOU LEARNED ONLY SIX THINGS IN THIS CHAPTER ...

1. The Demographic Transition Model is a tool demographers use to categorize countries' population growth rates and economic structures. The model analyzes crude birth rates, crude death rates, and total population trends in a society at a given point of time. Once a country moves into the next stage of the model, it cannot go back to previous stages, unless afflicted by nuclear war or another horrific calamity.

2. British economist Thomas Malthus coined the term overpopulation in the late 1700s. Malthus suggested that the world's population was growing faster than the rate of food production, and as a result, mass starvation would occur. Malthus was correct in his assumption about world population increase but was incorrect in his assessment of agriculture's inability to produce sufficient food.

3. The world's population is growing exponentially. Most of the growth is occurring in less developed countries. More developed countries are either at or near zero population growth. Some Eastern European countries are actually losing some of their population.

4. Population pyramids show the age and sex demographics of a particular country, city, or neighborhood. Inverted pyramids indicate a large percentage of elderly per sons in the community. A large base indicates a lot of children in the society and could indicate a less developed country.

5. There are three primary push and pull factors: economic, political, and environmen tal. Each of these reasons has caused millions of people to move.

6. Refugees voluntarily leave an area for fear of death or persecution. Forced migrants are forced by the government to move. Forced migrants can suffer the same fate as refugees if they do not obey the government mandate for them to relocate.

Migration