2 michael taylor irena rountable siew costing analysis presentation
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SIEW 2014 RoundTable C The True Costs of Renewables: Michael Taylor Senior AnalystTRANSCRIPT
The True Costs of Renewables:
Michael TaylorSenior Analyst
SIEW
30 October 2014
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Global Investment in Renewable Energy
The Energy Sector is Being Transformed
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A virtuous cycle is unlocking the economic, social and environmental
benefits of renewables
BUTTHE ABSENCE OF UP-TO-DATE
COST DATA IS A BARRIERIRENA IS RAMPING UP ITS WORK
IRENA now has…
A world class database
Cutting edge analysis
Transparent, verifiable data
Global coverage
A dynamic new web portal
Renewables are increasingly
competitive!
IRENA’s analysis of 9000
utility-scale projects and 200k
small-scale solar PV
Higher capacity
factors from improved
technology
Wind turbine cost
reductions
Costs are falling….
Wind Power
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Recent solar PV cost trends
Rapidly declining solar PV module prices…..
…..and installed costs
Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, BNEF and Global Data
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Recent solar PV cost trends
Rapidly declining solar PV module prices…..
…..and installed costs
Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, BNEF and Global Data
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Renewable costs in SE Asia
WindSolar PV
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Levelised cost of electricity
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Biodiesel production costs (2009 to 2010)
Conventional biofuels: Biodiesel
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Advanced biofuels
Numerous advantages
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Advanced biofuels
Electrification
• Battery pack costs are still too high, EV’s could be a more interesting solution than PHEV’s16
Pure electric vehicles
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Outlook to 2020 and beyond is promising
Advanced biofuels and
electrification to be competitive
Don’t forget biomethane
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Rationale and goals
Low hanging fruit is gone
Shift the emphasis
Engage with industry
Deepen the analysis
Collect more, better data
Member countries
Private sector members
Observers21
Alliance structure
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Upcoming work
Renewable power costs in 2014
PV parity indicators
Stationary applications
Global wind learning curve
RE power cost reduction potentials
RE and energy security
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Transparent data
Simple methodology
Timely and policy relevant information
IRENA’s reneable cost analysis
ADDITIONAL SLIDES
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Renewable costs in SE Asia
Biomass for power
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Renewable costs in SE Asia
Hydropower
Doubling the share of
renewable energy by 2030
Doubling the share of renewable energy implies a
tripling of the share of modern renewables.
With Renewables + Efficiency
we can achieve a 450ppm Path
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Scaling-up All Renewable
Energy Sources
Total Renewable Energy consumption in REmap 2030: 132 EJ/yr
REMAP 2030 RE energy shares
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Large and sustained financing needs
Quadrupling
modern RE use:
average investment
~USD 550 bn/year to
2030
Annual system costs in 2030 allowing for externalities:
SAVINGS of ~USD 230-740 bn/year!
IRENA’S
PV PARITY INDICATORS
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PV Parity Indicators
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• Tracks quarterly competiveness
• Indicators, not actual costs
• Target audience are policy makers and thought leaders
• Start with North America
• Can lead to more detailed analysis
• Supports other IRENA activities
Methodology
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• Simple metrics
• LCOE vs Effective Electricity Rate/Value• Require detailed assumptions & analysis
37Recent module price reductions make solar PV competitive
Residential PV Parity: A nuanced story
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Residential PV Parity: San Francisco
Minimum effective electricity rate
Maximum effective electricity rate
Average California electricity rate (EIA)
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Installed cost variation by city
Consistently wide variation in installed costs, why?
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Transparent data
Simple methodology
Timely and policy relevant information
IRENA’s PV cost analysis
IRENA’s PV Cost Analysis
41Bringing Our Future Forward