2000.04.15 a 2050 transportation vision rt 17 exurban region
TRANSCRIPT
A 2050 Transportation Vision Exercise for Virginia’s Route 17 Exurban Regions
The Lord Fairfax - Rappahannock-Rapidan - & RADCO
Planning Districts - Winchester to Fredericksburg
Tom Christoffel, AICPWorld Future Society, Professional FuturistLord Fairfax PDCApril 15, 2000
Exurban? More land than people.
� LF - 181,300/1,644 sq. mi. = 110/mile� R-R - 132,500/1,964 sq. mi. = 67/mile� RADCO - 237,200/1,397 sq. mi. = 169/mi.� NV - 1,739,000/1,312 sq. mi. = 1,325/mile� VA - 6,872,900/39,700 = 173/mile� US population will double in 100 years - still not
very dense. � We have lots of land. We sprawl because we can.
Transportation is Land Use
� Exurban growth is driven by metro housing cost. We get commuters & gentry. 1996 AGI total and for married couples shows the economic shadow:
� LF - $2.3 Billion - $38,219 Median Married Couples
� R-R - $2.1 billion - $44,540 Median Married Couples
� RADCO - $3.2 billion - $46,332 Median Married Couples
� NV - $40 billion - $68,180 Median Married Couples
� VA - $106,540 billion - $45,482 Median Married Couples
The Auto/Suburban Century 1950-2050
� Building houses, cars, roads - lots of space.� Mid-point? U.S. population 50% suburban, 25%
city, 25% rural. The 2004 legislatures will be suburban in representation.
� Suburbia doesn’t work - no center - first suburbs already in trouble.
� By 2050 - shift begins back to cities/towns, places with alternatives to the auto for transportation.
� Quality infrastructure for quality of life.
Transportation future?
� More time in car - up to 80 minutes per day - automakers building bigger vehicles, more amenities, more communication.
� Note: DC metro 1997 Annual delay 76 person hours - 2nd to L.A. @ 82 hours.
� COG telecommuting goal 20% - 12% now.� Making communication substitute for trips� Access management a key strategy to prevent loss
of habitat for driving enthusiasts.
Public Mobility
� Transit does not work for the low density auto oriented development of the last 50 years.
� No shortage of vehicles, drivers or seats.� It’s a logistics problem - origins & destinations
too scattered to make routes. � Technology will do real time matching for riders
and drivers. There will be shuttles galore.� Airline flights will be able to book you from door
to door - including ground transportation.
2050 Transportation
� Road network is essentially that of today. $$$� Population is up 50% - communication tech
handles much of the increased transactions. � 24/7 flex leads to tightly scheduled traffic at peak
hours. Not everyone drives. Recreation off-peak.� Shift to cities/towns - giant suburban houses sit
empty.� Regions that have focused on quality thrive
because people are mobile, not isolated.
2050 Transportation
� FedEx delivers pizza. Lots of specialized transport.
� …….� __� Tom Christoffel, AICP� Lord Fairfax PDC� 103 E. Sixth St. Front Royal VA 22630� E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 540-636-8800� Website: [email protected]
2050 Transportation
� FedEx delivers pizza. Lots of specialized transport.
� …….� __� Tom Christoffel, AICP� Lord Fairfax PDC� 103 E. Sixth St. Front Royal VA 22630� E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 540-636-8800� Website: [email protected]