8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

1/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

2/26

Comparision to 2003+ Much stronger rebound, but also from a bigger initial sell-off Would in isolation indicate sideways move for now in next half year or so, but ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 2

0.99

1.09

1.19

1.29

1.39

1.49

1.59

1.69

1.79

1.89

1.99

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

S&P 500 INDEX

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

3/26

Comparision to 2003+ Volatility at exactly same level at this stage ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

4/26

Comparision to 2003+ Lower starting point, but same pattern now

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

Standard & Poor's 500 Index Adjusted EPS on Quarter

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

5/26

Comparision to 2003+ Much lower starting point, but now same level ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 5

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001

GDP US Chained 2005 Dollars QoQ

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

6/26

Comparision to 2003+ Much lower starting point, but now almost same level ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

Adjusted Retail & Food Service Pct

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

7/26

Comparision to 2003+ First move come on the June meeting in 2004.. ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

Federal Funds Target Rate US Pct

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

8/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

9/26

Comparision to 2003+ The move up in 2 year began about 3 months before fist rate hike in June 2004 ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 9

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US TREASURY N/B 2 Year

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

10/26

Comparision to 2003+ Range trade after the initial move up as equities rebounded Same levels then and now

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 10

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

1.45

1.55

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US TREASURY N/B 10 Year

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

11/26

Comparision to 2003+ Curve began to flatten 3 month before first rate hike Driven by higher 2 year rates

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 11

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

UST 10-2 Year

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

12/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

13/26

Comparision to 2003+ Big difference in starting point ... But a 200t print in April would bring it back to a comparable level

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 13

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US Employees on Nonfarm Payroll

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

14/26

Comparision to 2003+ Comparable moves EUR newer went lower from this this stage in the recovery

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 14

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

EURO SPOT

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

15/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

16/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

17/26

Comparision to 2003+ Same level at this stage ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 17

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US CPI Urban Consumers Less Food and Energy Pct

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

18/26

Comparision to 2003+ Same level at this stage ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US CPI Urban Consumers YoY NSA Pct

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

19/26

Comparision to 2003+ Similar moves ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 19

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US Breakeven 10 Year

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

20/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

21/26

Comparision to 2003+ Two different worlds ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US New Privately Owned Housing

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

22/26

Comparision to 2003+ Different levels, same pattern ...

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 22

60

65

70

75

80

85

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US Capacity Utilization % of Total Capacity

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

23/26

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

24/26

Comparision to 2003+ Much starting level, but now the same level

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 24

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

US Durable Goods New Orders Total YoY

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

25/26

Comparision to 2003+ Much lower starting level, but now almost the same level Moved sideways for more than a year a same stage of the 2003+ rally

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 25

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Level

2003+

2009+

8/9/2019 2003 Comparison v3

26/26

Comparision to 2003+ Difference in Level ... but also limited effect as indicator for overall economy and equities last time

3/22/2010 Comparison US Data 2003+ and 2009+ (Start March 6 both year) Page 26

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1 126 251 376 501 626 751 876 1001 1126

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

2003+

2009+