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2003 Crime Analysis

Dr. Wade Schindler

Tulane University

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Crime Analysis???

What Is It? Who Uses It? What Information Does It Provide? How Does It Impact Society? What Specific Types Of Crime Analysis

Are Being Studied?

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General Definition

Crime Analysis is the logical examination of crimes that have penetrated preventative measures.

Crime Analysis also provides a proactive approach to security and law enforcement for the implementation of new crime prevention techniques.

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To reduce crime on property. To evaluate and aid in the selection of security and

crime prevention measures. To justify crime prevention expenditures. To provide a system of monitoring the effectiveness

of security and crime prevention measures. To provide a continual evaluation system of the

property’s crime situation. To reduce the liability of property owners and their

agents (property managers).

Goals of Crime Analysis

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Crime Analysis &Circle Of Control/Influence

Crime Analysis helps differentiate between a property manager’s area of control (Circle Of Control) and the areas over which managers have influence (Influence Of Control).

Property Managers are those people who own or contractually manage property that is public or private.

Circle Of Control

Circle Of InfluenceCircle Of Influence

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Descriptive Analysis of COC

Using the building manager scenario as an example, our manager is responsible for the building’s operation, the common areas, and the parking garage, which constitute his Circle Of Control.

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Descriptive Analysis of COI

An example of an area within his Circle Of Influence is the property next door, a strip used daily by his tenants. The proximity of this strip center to his building, its use by his tenants, and his relationship with that center’s management place this facility within his Circle Of Influence. Though he is not responsible for this facility, it does affect his property’s security and vice-versa.

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Legal Ramifications Involving Premises

Security A Premises Security lawsuit is a civil action

brought on behalf of a person seeking damages for negligent security against the owners and their agents.

Generally, three elements must be met in order for the plaintiff to prevail. These elements are, duty, breach of duty, and proximate cause.

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Crime AnalysisData Sources

Statistics represent criminal activity in the form of numbers, comparable to an inventory, in which the Crime Analysis task is the reformation of that activity as a tangible tool for risk management.

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Calls For Service (CFS) The primary data set is Calls For Service (CFS),

which serves as crime analysis’ basis and provides for the most accurate portrayal of criminal and other activity at a property. CFS consist of every report of crime, suspected crime, and activity called on to police from a property.

Research has concluded that unreported crime accounts for a 10% higher crime index, though this is highly dependent on the type of crime under observation. Despite the exclusion of unreported crime, CFS still provides conclusive illustrations of criminal activity on a property.

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Types Of Data Reports Offense Reports- Generated when police

discover a crime independent from a call into the 911 system.

Uniform Crime Reports- The most exhaustive and geographically comprehensive crime statistics available in the United States. The FBI is responsible for the publication of the UCR.

National Crime Victimization Survey- Initiated by the United States Census Bureau and Law Enforcement Assistance Administration in 1972, include characteristics of crime victims, such as age, sex, ethnicity, and martial status.

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Additional Data Reports Demographic Data- Include statistical data in

reference to population counts, socioeconomic levels, education levels, and personal traits of the population.

Security Reports- Include reports of criminal activity and other incidents (parking, loitering, security breaches). Management may generate these reports directly or through a contracted security service.

National Incident~Based Reporting System (NIBRS)- The future of Crime Analysis and a new measure of crime is found in the NIBRS.

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Geographic Levels Of Analysis

Is a hierarchy that denotes the levels of Geographic Analysis, ranging from the specific to the general. It is geared toward being as site~specific as possible displaying the importance and relationship between each level.

Property

Census Tract

Reporting Area

Beat/District Precinct

City/County

MSA

State

Nation

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Geographic Levels Of Analysis~Hierarchy Pyramid

Property- Is the fundamental level of analysis that refers to a single address over which the manager has absolute control.

Census Tract- Geographic areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau for population and geographic purposes.

Beat, District, or Precinct- Patrol Beats are common geographical zones that law enforcement allocate resources. Districts and Precinct’s are areas in which command centers are grouped.

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Geographic Levels Of Analysis~Hierarchy Pyramid

Continued Crime Statistical Reporting Area- Statistical Reporting Area

(RA) is a uncommon level of analysis. Generally, RA’s are small homogenous areas created for the sole purpose of supporting crime data collection. Uncommon because it creates inconsistency across jurisdictions.

City/County- Encompass crime information for the entire law enforcement jurisdiction. City and County data are on the middle ring of the Circle Of Influence.

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)- Account for approximately 76% of the total U.S. Population. This is considered the outer of the Circle Of Influence. Created purely for Crime Statistical purposes.

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Geographic Levels Of Analysis~Hierarchy Pyramid

Continued State- Similar to city and county data, state

can be found in the UCR and include information for the entire state. Information is available through the State Police.

Nation- Crime Stats for the Nation are available through the UCR program, via actual crime information and estimations for the occasional jurisdiction that are not involved in the program.

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Crime Statistics Today Today’s statistics originate from the Bureau of

Justice Statistics (BJS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

BJS conducts the annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).

FBI publishes data that is summarized in the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and its incident-driven National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS).

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The Uniform Crime Reporting Program

Started by the FBI in 1929 in response to a national initiative undertaken by the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP). The objective was to develop a set of consistent crime statistics for policymakers and police agencies to use throughout the country.

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The Structure of UCR

Initial data was structured in terms of seven major offense categories: Murder, Rape, Robbery, Aggravated Assault, Burglary, Larceny, and Motor Vehicle Theft.

These crimes are called, Part 1 Offenses. When averaged together and compared with the country’s population, it forms the FBI’s Crime Index.

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The FBI’s “Crime Clock” Part 1 Offenses,

showing the number of crimes reported in 1999 and 1995.

The Crime Clock subdivides Part 1 Offenses into two categories: Violent Crime and Property Crime.

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Problems with the UCR

The most significant methodological feature of the UCR is indicated by its name. It is a reporting program. In other words, only crimes that are reported to police are included in these statistics.

The most underreported crime is larceny, because petty theft may never make it into official police reports.

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Total Crimes Known to the Police (1996)

Murder 15,533Rape 89,107Robbery 409,670Aggravated Assault 916,383MVT 1,147,305Burglary 2,099,739Theft 6,957,412

Total 11,635,149

Source: UCR (1996)

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NIBRS: The New UCR

Recently, the UCR received an overhaul funded by the Criminal Identification Technology Act of 1998. The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), a new statistical system, was derived from the UCR.

The NIBRS was designed to gather detailed data on weapons, injuries received, crime locations, victims, offenders, sex, age, race, and much more.

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January 8.7 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.0February 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.3 6.1March 8.5 8.3 7.6 7.6 7.2April 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.0May 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.2June 8.7 8.4 8.1 8.5 8.4July 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.3 9.5August 8.7 9.2 9.1 9.4 9.1September 8.2 8.3 8.7 8.3 8.7October 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.7 9.3November 8.2 7.6 8.2 7.7 8.4December 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.7 9.2

1 The murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of

September 11, 2001, were not included in any murder tables (Tables 2.3-2.15).

See special report, Section V.

2000 2001

Table 2.3

Murder by Month1

Percent Distribution, 1997-2001

1997Month 1998 1999

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6,750 1,962 3

6,446 1,095 1

368 123 0

188 34 31

13,752 3,214 35

1 The murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of

September 11, 2001, were not included in any murder tables (Tables 2.3-2.15).

Table 2.4

4,785

by Race and Sex, 2001Murder Victims1

Race of victimUnknownFemaleMale

TotalSex of Victims

Total white victims

2 Total number of murder victims for whom supplemental homicide data were received.

Total victims2

Total other race victims

Total black victims

Total unknown race

See special report, Section V.

5,350

245

123

10,503

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LOUISIANA

Alexandria4 46,305 4,957 4,958 5 26 183 434 1,105 3,047 157 1Baton Rouge 227,637 20,149 20,318 46 62 1,071 1,368 3,716 12,128 1,758 169Bogalusa 13,354 1,208 1,216 0 16 23 135 318 662 54 8Bossier City 56,416 4,194 4,230 3 20 84 394 640 2,777 276 36Crowley 14,214 658 658 0 0 2 59 152 430 15 0Eunice 11,490 1,042 1,045 0 5 19 242 131 621 24 3Gretna 17,409 1,199 1,207 1 11 47 112 168 707 153 8Hammond 17,625 3,938 3,938 7 18 86 367 1,352 1,966 142 0Houma 32,367 2,212 2,227 4 15 70 343 307 1,359 114 15Jennings 10,977 682 687 2 7 12 90 125 427 19 5Kenner 70,461 3,861 3,861 3 17 107 228 531 2,484 491 0Lafayette 110,170 8,167 8,208 5 74 195 771 1,332 5,318 472 41Lake Charles 71,700 4,586 4,613 4 38 157 401 1,721 1,900 365 27Minden 13,017 378 380 1 1 8 31 82 238 17 2Monroe 53,065 6,272 6,330 2 37 126 701 1,120 3,984 302 58Natchitoches 17,851 1,069 1,069 1 9 13 151 253 615 27 0

New Iberia4 32,597 2,179 2,186 3 5 36 215 384 1,369 167 7New Orleans 484,289 36,057 213 209 2,778 2,677 5,262 16,187 8,731Pineville 13,818 576 0 4 4 3 244 299 22Ruston 20,530 1,356 1,359 1 7 39 140 235 886 48 3Shreveport 199,986 15,616 15,746 31 111 534 1,253 3,368 9,200 1,119 130Slidell 25,675 2,093 2,094 0 16 43 135 278 1,470 151 1Thibodaux 14,420 572 574 0 5 27 60 109 363 8 2West Monroe 13,239 1,270 1,271 0 6 26 82 156 934 66 1Westwego 10,754 430 435 2 3 13 38 63 277 34 5Zachary 11,266 513 516 0 7 5 39 73 351 38 3

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Murder Circumstances, 1997-20011

Total2

15,837 14,276 13,011 13,230 13,752

Felony type total: 2,968 2,514 2,215 2,229 2,279

Rape 67 62 47 58 59Robbery 1,509 1,244 1,057 1,077 1,042Burglary 101 92 81 76 73Larceny-theft 16 17 14 23 16Motor vehicle theft 18 17 12 25 20Arson 92 83 66 81 70Prostitution and commercialized vice 7 15 8 6 5Other sex offenses 23 20 19 10 7Narcotic drug laws 802 682 581 589 558Gambling 19 12 17 12 3Other - not specified 314 270 313 272 426

Suspected felony type 153 104 65 60 72

Other than felony type total: 7,666 7,232 6,880 6,871 6,948

Romantic triangle 176 187 137 122 118Child killed by babysitter 24 23 34 30 37Brawl due to influence of alcohol 239 213 203 188 151Brawl due to influence of narcotics 106 117 127 99 118Argument over money or property 287 241 213 206 194Other arguments 4,476 4,129 3,471 3,589 3,544Gangland killings 86 73 122 65 74Juvenile gang killings 783 628 580 653 865Institutional killings 19 15 13 10 8Sniper attack 8 16 5 8 7Other - not specified 1,462 1,590 1,975 1,901 1,832

Unknown 5,050 4,426 3,851 4,070 4,453

1 The murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of

September 11, 2001, were not included in any murder tables (Tables 2.3-2.15).

2 Total number of murder victims for whom supplemental homicide data were received.

2000 2001 Circumstances 1997 1998 1999

See special report, Section V.

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Murder Circumstances1

by Relationship,2 2001

Other Acquaint-family ance

Total3 13,752 142 600 94 110 253 218 73 26 284 2,979 342 153

Felony type total: 2,279 3 19 9 7 18 17 3 4 39 497 43 1

Rape 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 4 0 Robbery 1,042 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 14 182 16 0 Burglary 73 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 12 2 0 Larceny-theft 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 Motor vehicle theft 20 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 Arson 70 0 3 0 1 0 4 1 3 3 8 0 0 Prostitution and commercialized vice 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Other sex offenses 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 Narcotic drug laws 558 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 199 15 0 Gambling 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 Other - not specified 426 2 13 7 3 15 13 1 1 12 65 6 0

Suspected felony type 72 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 2 0

Other than felony type total: 6,948 118 511 71 86 208 179 60 19 198 2,007 263 139

Romantic triangle 118 2 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 52 5 3 Child killed by babysitter 37 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 26 1 0 Brawl due to influence of alcohol 151 1 4 0 0 0 1 3 1 4 59 14 1 Brawl due to influence of narcotics 118 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 54 5 0 Argument over money or property 194 1 5 2 2 1 0 5 2 6 101 15 0 Other arguments 3,544 91 354 38 62 40 30 40 8 116 1,065 164 113 Gangland killings 74 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 Juvenile gang killings 865 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 209 1 0 Institutional killings 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 Sniper attack 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Other - not specified 1,832 21 136 31 20 164 144 11 7 61 412 58 22

Unknown 4,453 21 70 14 17 26 22 10 3 47 467 34 13

1 The murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, were not included in any murder tables (Tables 2.3-2.15).

See special report, Section V.

Circumstances Husband Wife MotherTotal Father Son Daughter Brother Sister Friend Boyfriend

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Metropolitan Statistical Area 3,367,535 Area actually reporting 98.4% 193,992 23,958 170,034 422 1,111 7,147 15,278 36,441 113,728 19,865 Estimated totals 100.0% 197,176 24,311 172,865 423 1,130 7,215 15,543 36,992 115,818 20,055Cities outside metropolitan areas 366,764 Area actually reporting 82.9% 20,056 2,733 17,323 21 97 349 2,266 4,225 12,359 739 Estimated totals 100.0% 24,205 3,298 20,907 25 117 421 2,735 5,099 14,916 892Rural 731,131 Area actually reporting 90.8% 15,420 2,786 12,634 48 142 207 2,389 3,957 8,005 672 Estimated totals 100.0% 16,990 3,069 13,921 53 156 228 2,632 4,360 8,821 740State Total 4,465,430 238,371 30,678 207,693 501 1,403 7,864 20,910 46,451 139,555 21,687 Rate per 100,000 inhabitants 5,338.1 687.0 4,651.1 11.2 31.4 176.1 468.3 1,040.2 3,125.2 485.7

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NIBRS CONTINUED

The NIBRS has 22 crime categories in which make up 46 specific crimes called “Group A Offenses.” In addition, there are 11 “Group B Offenses.” Group B Offenses only offer data pertaining to reported arrest data.

The goal of the NIBRS is to make data reporting and data retrieval easy and readily available.

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NIBRS Offenses

Group A Offenses are those for which extensive crime data are collected under NIBRS

Group B Offenses are those for which only arrest data are reported under NIBRS

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NIBRS Group A Offenses

1. Arson2. Assault Offenses, including aggravated assault,

simple assault, and intimidation3. Bribery4. Burglary / Breaking and Entering5. Counterfeiting / Forgery6. Destruction / Damage / Vandalism of property7. Drug / Narcotic Offenses including Drug

Paraphernalia8. Embezzlement

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Group A Offenses Continued9. Extortion / Blackmail10. Fraud Offenses, including False Pretenses /

Swindles / Credit Card / Wire Fraud11. Gambling Offenses, including Sports

Tampering / Equipment Violations / Betting and Wagering

12. Homicide Offenses, including Murder and Non-negligent Manslaughter / Negligent Manslaughter / Justifiable Homicide

13. Kidnapping and Abduction

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Group A Offenses Continued

14. Larceny and Theft Offenses, including pocket picking / Shoplifting / Theft from coin machines / Theft from a motor vehicle

15. Motor Vehicle Theft

16. Pornography

17. Prostitution

18. Robbery

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Group A Offenses Continued

19. Forcible Sex Offenses, including Forcible Rape / Forcible Sodomy / Sexual Assault

20. Non-forcible Sex Offenses, including Incest / Statutory Rape

21. Stolen Property

22. Weapon law violations

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NIBRS Group B Offenses

1. Bad checks2. Curfew / Loitering 3. Disorderly conduct4. DUI5. Drunkenness6. Non-violent family offenses7. Liquor la violations8. Peeping Tom9. Runaway10. Trespass of real property11. All other offenses

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NIBRS Statistics

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NIBRS Statistics

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Problems With The NIBRS

The transition process is not moving as quickly as planned. Scheduled to be fully in place by 1999.

It is not being widely accepted by local law enforcement due to limited manpower in managing the transition process.

The NIBRS offers much more than past statistical programs. However, it cannot be fully critiqued until it is fully implemented.

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National Crime Victimization Survey

NCVS consists of information elicited through interviews with members of randomly selected households throughout the nation.

NCVS data is gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau personnel who survey approximately 49,000 households consisting of about 101,000 people.

The NCVS uncovers a large number of crimes that may not have been reported, therefore regarded by researchers as a more accurate measure of incidence crime.

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National Crime Victimization Survey

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NCVS Statistic

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NCVS Statistic

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Problems With The NCVS

The NCVS can be criticized for possible over-reporting. No attempt is made to verify the actual occurrence of any of the crimes reported to NCVS interviewers.

Individuals being interviewed sometimes embellish crime reports to gain attention and/or sympathy.

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NCVS vs. UCR The collection of NCVS data began in 1972. It is

newer than the FBI’s UCR established in 1929. Recent changes have resulted in the inability to easily

compare NCVS findings with past findings. The UCR offers a more consistent system in comparing data due to more agencies being involved.

The NCVS is based on interviews per household. The UCR is based on factual cases.

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01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000

10,000,00011,000,000

Y 2000 per 100,000

2000 Crime Index Offenses Reported

Violent CrimeTotalProperty CrimeTotal

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Total Offenses

2000 Crime Index Offenses Reported