Multinational IntelligenceCan CENTCOM Lead the Way?

Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition

Robert David STEELE VivasPresentation to the Coalition Coordination Center

27 January 2006

A copy of these slides are at the Modern Information Operations Portal Page at www.oss.net.

About the Speaker• 30 years overseas• USMC 0302/0202/9676• 6 clandestine tours• Founder USMC Intel Ctr• OSINT pioneer since 1988• Helped 19 governments by

invitation in home country • Trained 7,500 from 40 countries

since 1992• #1 Amazon non-fiction reviewer• Author 3 core books on IO/Intel• Believe we all need/can use a

Multinational Information Operations Center (MIOC) with two-way reach-back

2000

2002

2006

Editor2004

Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding

50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

5% of cost 80% of value

95% of cost 20% of value

This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit.

Open Source Data

Open Source Information

Open Source Intelligence

Validated Open Source Intelligence

Only the in-house analyst can do this.

Definitions

OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should control—it must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticians—as well as all-source intelligence analysts.

“…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”.

“…the Internet.”

“…a substitute for spies and satellites.”

What OSINT Is Not...

Commercial Online

Books & Journals

Conferences & Dissertations

Maps & Commercial

Imagery

Internet

Telephone Surveys

Gray Literature

Complex Human &

IT Services

OSINT Universe

Open Sources in 33+ Languages

World War III Players

Bacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Private Sector

Citizens

Mother EarthWater-Air-Green

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions

Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture

Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits

Has actually gotten better, the UN, although corrupt, is working!

Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

Local Threats to Global Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

OSINT Matters I

• "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country--the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations."

Clausewitz, On War, 1832

Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.

What’s on the other side of the hill?

®

All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”.

Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)

OSINT Matters II

®

Strategic Planning

Operational Coordination

Tactical Employment

Acquisition Design

• History

• Context

• Current Awareness

• Key Personalities/Motivators

• Imagery & Image Maps

• Translation Support

• Strategic Generalizations

• Critical Technologies

OSINT Matters III

This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention.

Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd

OSINT

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

Seven Views of RealityNot listening, and not sharing, costs us.

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Sources

• All information, all languages, all the time• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic• Must follow television, radio, audio, street• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC• Cannot be made sense of by single individual• We must find a multinational integrated approach

TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible

Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene

• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention

– More Peacekeeping

– More Education

– More Long-Term Aid

– Less Corruption

– Less Censorship

We have a sacred duty.

Between Google and Wikis, World Brain is Possible

OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM

# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global

You Are Here...

12

3

Far Future

Near Future

Present

Historical Memory

OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM

Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets

You Are Here...

12

3

Gaming Future ROIs

Foreign Viewpoints

Reality

Public Memory

Secrecy rules

Elites rules

Act on 2% of the info.

People complacent

Short-term view

Unilateral militarism

Immoral capitalism

Big stick works BUT

Long-term cost not visible to public

$1B/Yr 3

$111B/Yr 10

Pay with information

Pay with cash & information

DoD

$250M/Yr 1

$500M/Yr 2

$1B/Yr 3

$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC

for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a

coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling

sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.

1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2

10 PB/Yr 3

Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning

with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.

USG

10X DoD

with 1-3 year

lag time.

U.S. Based Corporations

OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.

Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.

Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.

Education Everywhere All Levels

Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.

Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.

United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF

Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.

Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups

It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.

The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED

OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)

GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)

Intelink-X

USA Earns Nobels Across S&T

Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X

USA DGI, GIC, GSC

World Intelligence Network

General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.

Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad

Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping

DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council

SECRET BIG DATA

• NSA-NGA

• SAIC

• HARRIS

• NG-MS

NOT SECRET BIG DATA

• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…

• NASA , public geospatial

• Factiva

• LEXIS-NEXIS

SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• Intelink

• ARDA

• ITIC

• JHU/APL

NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• CISCO

• Google/Libraries

• Amazon Inside the Book

• Napster Plus

Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)

SIPRNET

Paradigm Shift

• Dots don’t know they are secret until some human decides this.

• Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation.

• Dots gain value from history and context.

• Dots gain value from speed of delivery.

• Dots in a foreign language are smarter.

• Information to one is intelligence to another.

OPG VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance Learning

Virtual Library

Shared Calendar

Virtual Budget

Shared 24/7 Plot

Shared Rolodex

Teams Crossing All Boundaries

Success Story: NATO OSINT

0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 3.500.000 4.000.000 4.500.000 5.000.000

print

film

magnetic

optical

telephone

radio

TV

Internet

surface Web

deep web

email

instant messaging

P2P file sharing

lower 327 74.202 3.416.230 51 3.488 39.841

upper 1.634 420.254 4.999.230 103 3.488 68.955 532.897 167 91.850 440.606 274 0

print film magnetic optical telephone radio TV Internet surface Web deep web emailinstant

messaging

P2P file

sharing

Success Story: Dutch OSINT

Surface web is NOT the Internet (Deep web plus)

Email matters more than www

Books down, still matter as history

Merging with Internet

CISCO IPICS

Converts Tactical Radio to Digital Packets

Success Story: Swedish OSINT

• Began with one Maj (today LtCol), today fills up a basement in storage and aggregate sense-making software

• Works in all languages, manages global cover stories, gets technical information directly from all manufacturers including Chinese and Russians

Success Story: South African OSINT

• First to combine appreciation of both open source software as affordable, and open source intelligence as trust building measure

• Only leader of a continent-wide early warning and open source information sharing system

Success Story: UK OSINT

• Started with just one detective constable

• Leveraged global network of pro bono advisors, many met at OSS.Net conferences

• Cut cost of finding lairs from L3000/day to L30 in an hour by using OSINT

ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO

ADDNI/OS View of OSINT OSS CEO View of OSINT

OSINT

Humint Sigint

MasintImint

FI

Hu

min

t

Sigin

t

Imin

t

Masin

t

Osin

t

OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.

Possible Next Steps

• In-Depth One-Day Workshop here in Tampa• Identify and engage with your national military

OSINT POC, then exchange notes within CCC.• Self-study at www.oss.net free web site• Plan for attending IOS ’07 15-19 Jan 07 at no cost

(No cost travel if group aircraft can be arranged )• Consider OSINT summit in home country• Develop concepts for a CENTCOM MIOC

Spread the Word

Robert David Steele Vivas

CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.

Intelligence Coach

Oss.net@cox.net (unlisted)

Bear@oss.net (public)

703.242.1700 voice

703.242.1711 fax

Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to self-organize everywhere in the world