2008 base case rocky mountain area transmission study (rmats)
DESCRIPTION
2008 Base Case Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS). February 5, 2004. Base Case Objectives. Focus on congestion that affects the cost of serving load in the RMATS sub-region Assess the current system Include existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Steering Committtee PresentationFebruary 5, 2004
2008 Base Case
DRAFT - For Comment
Base Case Objectives
Focus on congestion that affects the cost of serving load in the RMATS sub-region
Assess the current system
Include existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress
Identify incidence and duration of congestion
Estimate the resulting congestion costs
Include several load, gas price, and hydro sensitivities
Review plant performance
Estimate the incremental value of expansion on congested paths
* 2013 loads applied to 2008 resources and transmission
Base Case Runs
High Load*
$4 Gas
Production cost model
West-wide scope with a particular focus on the RMATS region
Detailed transmission representation
Variable O&M
Treated as a fixed dispatch to the system
After hydro and wind dispatch, the net load is passed to thermal dispatch
LMP differences are dampened as hydro is included
Single test year – 2008
All results presented in 2004 dollars
Load, gas price, and wind resource capacity sensitivities
LMP- (Locational Marginal Price)
The cost of delivering the next 1 MW of power to a particular location, or the savings from reducing load by 1 MW at that location (sometimes called shadow price). Locations are modeled at nodel/bus level
2008 Base Case
Modeling Limitations
Modeling assumes a single, seamless west-wide market with no rate or loss pancaking
No institutional, tariff, or contractual impediments to trade
Omits wheeling charges (wheeling is assumed to be common to all)
Does not calculate loss charges (losses are netted against load)
LP optimizes dispatch on a west-wide basis (perfect knowledge)
1-world dispatch
Hydro and wind dispatch is determined outside ABB Market Simulator, then entered as shaped inputs around which thermal resources are dispatched
Perfect foresight on loads, transmission usage & reserve requirements
Not modeled:
Must-run generation
Unit commitment
Generator forced outages
Contractual / tariff constraints
Bid behavior
Policy related items such as renewable portfolio standards (RPS) & carbon emission limitations
Sub-hourly operations
2008 Base Case
Implications of Limitations
Tends to make fuller, more optimal use of transmission than operations currently allow
Analogous to seamless RTO world
Tends to mask the tariff and contractual constraints of today
Makes wind appear more economic because fewer constraints lead to greater dispatch
Fifteen percent planning margin used may be conservative
Margin is calculated off nameplate
Covers generator forced outages and operating reserves that ABB MS does not model
2008 Base Case
2
·
33 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. See page 9
3
·
As modeled by SSG-WI. Modifications are made to provide more in-depth look at the RMATS sub-region
4
·
New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 case, as validated by SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. Base case provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure
5
·
As provided by RMATS Load Forecast Work Group (LFWG), based on WECC Load Forecast issued in 2003 with RMATS modifications. See pages 10-13
6
·
2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential matches the 5th NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. These ranges are also consistent with the EIA, December 2003 updated forecast. See page 14
7
·
DSM for 2008 is decremented against load. A survey designed to quantify DSM was distributed but no reply to date.
8
·
Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 15-16. Any excess capacity is exported
9
·
Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed and with a description of associated transmission. See page 15
10
11
12
·
Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA Cost Benefit Study for RTO West. Includes modifications for coordinated maintenance. See page 21
13
·
All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves
14
·
As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team. See page 17
15
·
Assumptions consistent with SSG-WI Study. For wind shapes, NREL provided hourly profiles. See page 18
RMATS
2008 Base Case
Loads by Western Interconnect Region- 2008
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS modifications
NWPP-Canada
NWPP-US
Summer: 16.6
Winter: 20.3
Summer: 24.1
Winter: 30.8
Summer: 24.6
Winter: 21.4
Summer: 31.2
Winter: 24.7
Summer: 2.5
Winter: 2.2
Loads by Rocky Mountain Area - 2008
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS Modifications
Annual GWh with Non-Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (MW)
2008 Base Case
Loads by Western Interconnect Region- High
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS modifications (2013 load level)
NWPP-Canada
NWPP-US
2008 Base Case
2008 vs High
2008 Base Case
Base case assumptions:
The 2008 US average Wellhead price set at $4.00 / MMBtu and at $5.00 / MMBtu
The basis differential is set to match the fifth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
For comparison, current 2008 Henry Hub Gas Future Price $4.70/MMBtu range (nominal $)
$5.00
Case
$4.00
Case
California prices include interstate pipeline charge of ~20¢
2008 Base Case
2008 Rocky Mountain Area Total Resources (MW)
Total Capacity
29,121 MW
Does not include additional wind capacity of 1750 MW
Incremental Additions
WI Total: 192,646 MW
RM Total: 29,121 MW
2008 Base Case
2008 Base Case
Assumptions
Added 1742 MW of Wind nameplate to base 508 MW for total of 2250 MW in the Rocky Mountain Area
Did not consider transmission impacts other than on monitored interfaces (feasibility may require significant transmission additions)
Wind MWhs displaced gas generation over 95% of time
Some hourly impacts on coal plants
2008 Base Case
Final 2013 Alternatives Only
Per Generation Technology / Age ($2004)
2008 Base Case
Fuel Type
Gas
CCCT
Coal
Steam
Coal
Steam
Coal
Steam
Coal
Updated outages to reflect a coordinated schedule
Model reduces dispatch for scheduled outages based upon user input for amount and time
(% year, very approximate)
Combined Cycle 7%
Western Interconnect Path Constraint Sensitivities
Evaluation of Potential Solutions
LMPs are calculated separately for loads and generation
In the base case, the lowest LMPs for loads are at Laramie River, Colorado-West, and Yellowtail
Lowest LMPs for generation are at Laramie River, Colorado-West, and Bonanza
Indicates generation is bottled up
LMPs tend to decrease as relatively low cost resources are added
High wind capacity sensitivity is an example
Targeted transmission investments would levelize/stabilize marginal prices because congestion is relieved
Sensitivities were run to explore the change in VOM costs if constraints are removed – all constraints west-wide, constraints internal to the Rocky Mountain sub-region only, and constraints on Rocky Mountain import/export paths only
VOM cost savings would be significant and reach broadly
Such savings alone do not justify making investments, however. Investment costs and other factors must also must be considered
Base Case Observations
2008 Base Case
Base Case Observations
The top 5 congested paths in the Rocky Mountain sub-region are also export-related paths:
Idaho to Montana
TOT 2C
Bridger West
IPP DC
TOT 3
The top 5 congested paths at $4 gas price are also the top 5 at $5 gas price
Dispatch ranking of plants is unchanged
Exception: high wind capacity sensitivity
Analysis includes a first look at opportunity costs (congestion costs) and potential solutions for three of the top 5 congested paths
Next steps: consider other alternative transmission solutions for 2008, determine capital costs, determine technical feasibility
2008 Base Case
Locational Marginal Prices
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
* $4 Gas- H load- $26,325; 12%
Interface
% hours congested
337
337
$28,324
5%
300
300
$11,706
15%
2,200
N/A
$10,749
19%
1,920
300
$10,141
72%
1,424
N/A
$5,649
8%
200
200
$2,590
3%
Sorted
S N
Idaho to Montana ($4 gas, 2008 loads, high wind capacity)
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $19,047
Forward limit (S – N): 337 MW
Reverse limit (N – S): -337 MW
Power flowing south is congested 3% of all hours
Blue line is reverse limit
S N
S N
S N
1,042,362 MWh
was modeled with no constraints on all WI paths
1,373,642 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $20,341
Forward limit (N – S): 300 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): -300 MW
Power flowing south is congested 23% of all hours
N S
N S
N S
1,687,891 MWh
1,579,072 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $43,690
Forward limit (E – W): 2,200 MW
Reverse limit (W – E): N/A
Power flowing west is congested 36% of all hours
E W
E W
17,149,430 MWh
17,913,183 MWh
E W
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $13,067
Forward limit (NE – SE): 1900 MW
Reverse limit (SW – NE): -1400 MW
Power flowing south-east is congested 72% of all hours
NE SW
NE SW
NE SW
17,147,800 MWh
15,041,672 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $8,259
Forward limit (N – S): 1424 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): NA
Power flowing south-east is congested 10% of all hours
N S
7,880,417 MWh
8,903,396 MWh
N S
N S
N S
RMATS
SW Wyoming to Bonanza ($4 gas, 2008 loads, high wind capacity)
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $695
Forward limit (N – S): 265 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): -300 MW
Power flowing north is congested 1% of all hours
N S
N S
N S
739,634 MWh
739,634 MWh
$4 gas, 2008 loads, High Wind
Interface limitation
Annual average LMP
Load ($/MW)
Generator ($/MW)
Load ($/MW)
Generator ($/MW)
Base Case
13,642,615
(41,031)
38.01
37.41
.04
.17
13,691,688
(8,042)
38.03
37.41
.06
.17
Path Constraint Sensitivities
Path Constraint Sensitivities
Idaho to Montana ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Results
Decreases binding congestion to 1% from 5% of the time
Path loading increases by 1,673 MWh
1,102,119 MWh
1,103,792 MWh
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Increased line rating by 500 MW NE to SW (Forward limit ~ 2400 MW)
Results
Line loading increases by 2,863,577 MWh
Decreases binding congestion to 57% from 72% of the time
14,952,799 MWh
17,816,376 MWh
RMATS
SW Wyoming to Bonanza ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Increased line rating by 100 MW (increase line limit to 300 MW from 200MW); this can be accomplished by adding a transformer and possibly line compensation.
Results
System wide cost decreases by ~$4.3 million; hydro model does not allow hydro redispatch.
Line loading increases by 7,170 MWh
Alleviates binding congestion, which now occur 3% of the time
902,434 MWh
909,604 MWh
Proposed transmission solutions were tested based on VOM cost savings
Capital costs are not considered (TAWG)
Power Flow/Stability analysis should be run to confirm technical feasibility; other solutions should be examined (e.g., FACTS device instead of phase shifters, etc.)
Measured savings apply to the entire Western Interconnect; this raises question about sharing the costs 9
2008 Base Case
Applies to all paths
Added about 1600 MW of resources to the SSG-WI 2008 case
Compares 2002 actual loads to 2008 base case
PDCI line flow is less than historic loadings; low load is caused by absence of contractual rights, tariff wheeling and tariff loss charges
Must consider modeling limitations when drawing conclusions
Benchmarking
Observation/Qualification
Path compares incredibly close; 99.4% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
Observation/Qualification
Path compares incredibly close; 99.7% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
Observation/Qualification
Path compares close; 99.4% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
COI Duration Curve
COI - Taxed heavier in the south to north direction than was in SSG-WI
Baring some of the PDCI load
Hydro peak shaving algorithm
Path 26 Duration Curve
Path 26 - Between PG&E and Southern California Edison (Midway to Vincent; 3-500 kV lines)
Compares favorably with historic
One of the artifacts of not having wheeling; using the AC more than the DC
2008 Base Case
Southern California Import Transmission Nomogram (SCIT): Sum of Midway, PDCI, IPP, North of Lugo, and WOR
Market Place to Adelanto was left out in the SSG-WI model (counted twice; negative and positive, canceling each other out)
CISO no longer strictly enforces this path in their planning studies
2008 Base Case
East of the River Duration Curve
The SSG-WI line was considered to be reasonable by the SSG-WI planning group, given new resource additions
2008 Base Case
TOT2 (A+B+C) Duration Curve
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
TOT 2B1 Duration Curve
Pinto-Four Corners 345 kV
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
Glen Canyon to Sigurd (230kV)
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
Harry Allen-Red Butte
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
2008 Base Case
All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $
Sorted
Yellow highlighting indicates RMATS interfaces
All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $
2008 Base Case
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Forward Limit
LGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLG
SOCALIF
12122412121240.73 41.60 49.15 50.20 45.59 46.03 49.15 50.20 40.61 41.51 52.40 53.56
San Diego
25257725252540.42 39.26 48.80 47.25 44.71 45.12 48.80 47.25 40.27 39.04 52.18 50.21
LADWP
31315231313140.07 44.20 48.37 52.87 44.97 48.82 48.37 52.87 39.94 43.94 51.69 55.87
PG&E
43436643434340.02 40.55 48.27 48.87 44.87 45.17 48.27 48.87 39.83 40.33 51.63 51.93
Imperial
54544354545439.28 40.02 47.40 48.47 45.03 46.28 47.40 48.47 38.96 39.71 50.70 51.38
Sierra
66668566666738.61 38.72 46.67 46.76 44.54 45.61 46.67 46.76 38.24 38.31 49.94 49.49
Northwest
711711172171181071038.23 37.67 46.23 45.59 43.19 42.60 46.23 45.59 37.96 37.39 49.57 49.10
Mexico
81211101111107910938.16 37.61 46.05 45.63 67.46 66.28 46.05 45.63 38.00 37.42 49.51 49.23
BC Hydro
97871814871079638.13 38.40 46.15 46.47 43.09 43.34 46.15 46.47 37.86 38.14 49.55 49.89
Aquila
913913192491391281238.13 37.38 46.14 45.21 43.05 42.38 46.14 45.21 37.87 37.09 49.56 48.61
Idaho- West
Goshen
1281299812911812838.07 38.01 45.82 45.80 44.50 44.57 45.82 45.80 37.83 37.93 49.29 49.47
Utah- N
New Mexico
Broadview
West of Colstrip
Utah- S
Montana- West
Nevada
Bonanza
Colorado- E
IPP
N. Wyoming (BHB)
SW Wyoming
C Wyoming
Black Hills
Yellowtail
27827829142782511261136.67 38.01 44.50 46.06 42.26 43.34 44.50 46.06 35.82 37.14 46.97 48.65
Arizona
Colorado-W
Jim Bridger
WAPA L.C.
Laramie River
Alberta
33333333101333333231302934.41 34.25 41.99 41.82 44.47 43.41 41.99 41.82 34.33 34.18 45.74 45.57
$4 Gas$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Rank
Area
$5 Gas $5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas- H Load$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Wet
Median
Dry
MW
#
Inflation rate 2.5% applied to fuel and variable O&M
2
Transmission topology 33 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team . See
page 9
nomograms
As modeled by SSG-WI. Modifications are made to provide more in-depth look at the
RMATS sub-region
4
Transmission additions New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 case, as validated by
SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team . Base case
provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure
5
annual load growth
As provided by RMATS Load Forecast Work Group (LFWG), based on WECC Load
Forecast issued in 2003 with RMATS modifications. See pages 10-13
6
Gas prices 2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential matches
the 5
th
NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. These ranges are also consistent
with the EIA, December 2003 updated forecast. See page 14
7
Treatment of DSM DSM for 2008 is decremented against load. A survey designed to quantify DSM was
distributed but no reply to date.
8
Existing thermal plants Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 15-16. Any
excess capacity is exported
9
Resource additions Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper
permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed
and with a description of associated transmission. See page 15
10
Thermal plant lives All plants assumed to remain in operation
11
Hydro plant lives All plants assumed to remain in operation
12
Maintenance outages Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA Cost Benefit Study for RTO
West. Includes modifications for coordinated maintenance. See page 21
13
Generator cost curves All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves
14
Renewable resources As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team . See page 17
15
Wind modeling Assumptions consistent with SSG -WI Study. For wind shapes, NREL provided hourly
profiles. See page 18
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
NELWAY
BRIDGER
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCH
E
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Forward Limit
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Coal, 16,896
Gas, 6,838
Hydro, 4,629
Wind, 508
Other, 227
Geothermal, 23
Delta
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Potential Line Loading
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BiomCoalGasGeoNucl
Enforced
$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
IDAHO - MONTANA 337(337)TRUE11233428,324 22,058 14,220 14,045 19,047 13,514
TOT 2C 300(300)TRUE223102211,706 14,461 13,106 9,063 20,341 24,361
BRIDGER WEST 2,200NATRUE3422251110,749 11,220 476 557 43,690 52,781
IPP DC LINE 1,920(300)TRUE4311124310,141 11,247 6,148 7,336 13,067 14,233
TOT 3 1,424NATRUE5584555,649 6,450 9,043 12,098 8,259 12,185
BONANZA WEST 785NATRUE662324775,155 5,432 456 600 6,299 8,763
SW Wyoming to Bonanza 200(200)TRUE781113142,590 2,049 26,325 35,336 695 756
BROWNLEE EAST 1,750NATRUE8799982,579 4,213 8,781 9,281 1,610 3,987
PATH C 1,000(1,000)TRUE9101515891,381 1,658 2,160 3,697 1,969 2,941
Montana - Southeast 600(450)TRUE1011283014151,188 1,162 20 9 592 599
Yellowtail South (N-S) 625NATRUE119722017909 1,828 10,195 15,650 187 413
TOT 1A 650NATRUE121418191012861 392 1,158 1,337 1,329 1,440
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram 1,570(1,600)TRUE131521171523475 362 599 1,387 257 86
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV 1,400(1,200)TRUE141712141620324 280 5,231 5,283 256 273
IDAHO - NORTHWEST 2,400(1,200)TRUE151310131916260 550 6,943 6,150 193 467
TOT 7 890NATRUE161620211110237 293 834 1,070 1,119 2,073
TOT 5 1,675NATRUE17181716232464 126 1,247 1,736 40 75
TOT 2A 690NATRUE182158172161 42 11,774 10,766 237 242
Sierra Import Limits 1010NATRUE19192727221855 65 58 306 119 362
TOT 2B2 265(300)TRUE21121618271144 1,091 1,817 1,363 - 1,728
WEST OF BROADVIEW 2,573NATRUE22232931212216 7 - - 139 211
IDAHO - SIERRA 500(360)TRUE23242931252615 3 - - 15 9
MONTANA - NORTHWEST 2,200(1,350)TRUE2422293112135 18 - - 719 1,398
WEST OF COLSTRIP 2,598NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
WEST OF CROSSOVER 2,598NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
INTERMOUNTAIN - GONDER 230 KV 250NAFALSE252529312729- - - - - -
PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV 440(235)TRUE25251362628- - 4,790 11,005 10 6
TOT 2B 780(850)TRUE2525452729- - 12,812 11,781 - -
TOT 4A 810NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
TOT 4B 680NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
Black Hills to C Wyoming 332(332)TRUE252526292729- - 175 226 - -
Laramie River to C Wyomong 640(640)FALSE252529312729- - - - - -
N to S Utah 3,000(3,000)FALSE252529312729- - - - - -
SW Wyoming to N Utah 400(400)TRUE252519222729- - 885 839 - -
Black Hills to Big Horn 332(332)TRUE252529312729- - - - - -
Yellowtail North (S-N) 600NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
West of Naughton (E-S&W) 920NATRUE25256766- - 11,005 10,966 6,461 10,285
Rank Opportunity Cost
$4 Case$5 CaseBasis
Wellhead w/Fuel use (4%) 4.16 5.20 0.16
Henry Hub-Wellhead w/fuel use 4.28 5.32 0.28
AECO 3.83 4.87 (0.17)
Rockies 3.88 4.92 (0.12)
UT-PACE 4.23 5.27 0.23
Wyoming 4.28 5.32 0.28
Montana 4.21 5.25 0.21
Idaho 4.23 5.27 0.23
Permian 4.11 5.15 0.11
Arizona 4.43 5.47 0.43
Gas Price Forecasts (2008)
STEP50/50*NYMEXRMATS- BaseRMATS- High
Enforced?
$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
SILVER PEAK - CONTROL 55 KV 17(17)TRUE111111145,253 182,185 170,543 252,830 97,324 129,798
WOR - PV to Devers 1,550NATRUE22322283,789 99,261 123,358 140,613 80,008 86,046
WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo 2,754NATRUE33663443,456 49,279 22,247 22,607 47,199 48,363
ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA 700(720)TRUE44445533,610 36,944 70,904 70,304 32,227 34,439
IDAHO - MONTANA 337(337)TRUE5691081028,324 22,058 14,220 14,045 19,047 13,514
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) 1,048(1,048)TRUE65776621,606 26,646 14,982 20,658 23,443 32,412
NW to Canada, East BC 400(400)TRUE711121491214,313 10,860 11,816 11,073 15,008 11,018
North of Miguel 2,000NATRUE87262910813,486 16,246 2,269 2,743 13,996 16,646
TOT 2C 300(300)TRUE9810197711,706 14,461 13,106 9,063 20,341 24,361
BRIDGER WEST 2,200NATRUE101040454310,749 11,220 476 557 43,690 52,781
IPP DC LINE 1,920(300)TRUE119212111910,141 11,247 6,148 7,336 13,067 14,233
Combined PACI & PDCI 7,300NATRUE1212202413157,393 8,052 6,167 6,638 7,277 8,541
TOT 3 1,424NATRUE1313161212115,649 6,450 9,043 12,098 8,259 12,185
BONANZA WEST 785NATRUE1414414415145,155 5,432 456 600 6,299 8,763
COI 4,800(3,675)TRUE1515302816163,821 4,906 1,899 3,281 5,130 4,801
Southern CA Imports 15,200(15,200)TRUE1616293417173,696 4,837 2,128 1,581 4,721 4,533
SW Wyoming to Bonanza 200(200)TRUE17195529302,590 2,049 26,325 35,336 695 756
BROWNLEE EAST 1,750NATRUE1817171820182,579 4,213 8,781 9,281 1,610 3,987
ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA 5,700NATRUE1918273018201,965 2,385 2,240 2,577 2,107 2,589
EOR - HASSYAMP- N.GILA 1,273NATRUE2023374221241,414 1,545 868 816 1,436 1,655
PATH C 1,000(1,000)TRUE2122282719191,381 1,658 2,160 3,697 1,969 2,941
NORTHWEST - CANADA 2,000(3,150)TRUE2220323123211,199 1,984 1,379 2,176 1,201 2,475
Montana - Southeast 600(450)TRUE2324495230311,188 1,162 20 9 592 599
CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) 408(800)TRUE2428232527935 596 158,912 133,957 946 1,050
Yellowtail South (N-S) 625NATRUE25211583834909 1,828 10,195 15,650 187 413
TOT 1A 650NATRUE263034372225861 392 1,158 1,337 1,329 1,440
PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI) 3,100(3,100)TRUE272724232828705 692 4,563 6,851 703 993
NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3,400(3,000)TRUE282645462629680 795 332 535 725 892
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram 1,570(1,600)TRUE293139353343475 362 599 1,387 257 86
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV 1,400(1,200)TRUE303322263439324 280 5,231 5,283 256 273
IDAHO - NORTHWEST 2,400(1,200)TRUE312919253733260 550 6,943 6,150 193 467
TOT 7 890NATRUE323238392422237 293 834 1,070 1,119 2,073
Imp.Valley to Miguel 1,560NATRUE333535403242210 219 1,030 990 273 165
MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE 1,500(400)TRUE343489464596 225 14,540 14,726 14 72
TOT 5 1,675NATRUE35363333424464 126 1,247 1,736 40 75
TOT 2A 690NATRUE36411317354061 42 11,774 10,766 237 242
Path 15 Borah W Summer NANATRUE37394249444955 52 412 253 19 8
Sierra Import Limits 1010NATRUE37384748413555 65 58 306 119 362
FOUR CORNERS 345_500 840(840)TRUE39375254403250 108 - - 121 592
NORTH OF SAN ONOFRE 2,440NATRUE39425051484650 41 9 24 8 23
TOT 2B2 265(300)TRUE41253136492344 1,091 1,817 1,363 - 1,728
INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE 56(56)TRUE42404322313742 47 400 6,870 573 275
WEST OF BROADVIEW 2,573NATRUE43455254394116 7 - - 139 211
IDAHO - SIERRA 500(360)TRUE44465254454815 3 - - 15 9
PG&E - SPP 160(150)TRUE4543181143368 20 7,349 13,192 38 276
Rank Opportunity Cost
IDAHO - NORTHWEST EastWest2,400 (1,200)
IDAHO - SIERRA NorthSouth500 (360)
BORAH WEST EastWest2,307 N/A
IDAHO - MONTANA SouthNorth337 (337)
BRIDGER WEST EastWest2,200 N/A
PATH C NorthSouth1,000 (1,000)
IPP DC LINE NESW1,920 (300)
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV EastWest1,400 (1,200)
INTERMOUNTAIN - GONDER 230 KV EastWest250 N/A
TOT 1A EastWest650 N/A
TOT 2A NorthSouth690 N/A
BONANZA WEST EastWest785 N/A
TOT 2B NorthSouth780 (850)
TOT 2C NorthSouth300 (300)
TOT 3 NorthSouth1,424 N/A
TOT 4A NESW810 N/A
TOT 4B SENW680 N/A
TOT 5 WestEast1,675 N/A
TOT 7 NorthSouth890 N/A
BILLINGS - YELLOWTAIL NorthSouth400 (400)
BROWNLEE EAST WestEast1,850 N/A
TOT 2B1 NorthSouth560 (600)
TOT 2B2 NorthSouth265 (300)
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram NorthSouth1,570 (1,600)
Montana - Southeast NorthSouth600 (450)
SW Wyoming to Bonanza NorthSouth200 (200)
N to S Utah NorthSouth3,000 (3,000)
SW Wyoming to N Utah EastWest400 (400)
Black Hills to Big Horn EastWest332 (332)
Yellowtail South (N-S) NorthSouth625 N/A
Yellowtail North (S-N) SouthNorth600 N/A
West of Naughton (E-S&W) EastWest920 N/A
Sierra Import Limits NorthSouth1,010 N/A
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
(w/ phase shifter)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 99.4%100.0%
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
Actual flow 1998 100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 99.3%99.3%99.4%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 99.4%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 97.6%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 97.3%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2001(162) 850
Actual flow 2002437 948
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 99.2%99.2%100.0%
RMATS 2008 98.8%98.4%99.0%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 99.8%99.6%99.5%98.8%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 98.5%99.6%100.0%
RMATS 2008 78.2%82.8%85.3%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 93.6%95.0%97.2%91.8%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 99.3%99.8%100.0%
RMATS 2008 96.0%93.0%92.5%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 92.9%89.4%88.8%99.6%100.0%
Correlation
RMATS 2008 (23) 118
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100
% of time
RMATS 2008(139) 205
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
NW_Wind 650 650 MCNARY 500 Northwest
Wy_Wind 141 700 MINERS 230 SW Wyoming
alberta 150 150 LANGDON2 500 Alberta
CO_Wd1 160 290 LAMAR CO 230 Colorado- East
Plvy_Wd 144 300 RAILROAD 230 Utah- North
CO_Wd2 63 510 PEETZ 115 Colorado- East
E Tuscon 0 0 APACHST3 20 Arizona
Navajo 0 0 GLENC7-8 14 WAPA L.C
Tonopah 0 0 TONOPAH 69 Nevada
Vegas 0 0 PAHRUMP 230 Nevada
4Corners 0 0 SHIPROCK 230 WAPA L.C
Bend 0 0 REDMOND 230 Northwest
Co_Gorg2 0 0 CARSON 115 Northwest
Ellenbrg 0 0 ELLENSBG 115 Northwest
Spokane 0 0 CUSICK 230 Northwest
Id-East 0 125 ANTLOPE 230 Goshen
Id-Mid 0 0 MINIDOKA 138 Idaho
Mt-West 0 0 JACKRABT 161 Northwest
Mt-Main 0 175 SHELBY 230 Montana- West
Mont-E 0 0 COLSTRP 230 West of Colstrip
Ut-S 0 0 CENTRAL 138 Utah- South
Wy-BHB 0 150 BGEORGE 115 Big Horn Basin
Wy-BHill 0 0 RENO 230 Black Hills
Wy-LRS 0 0 HAPPYJCK 115 Laramie River
Wy- JB 0 0 FIREHOLE 230 Jim Bridger
Total MW 2,958 4,700
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Potential Line Loading
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-800-650-500-350-200-50100250400
MW
(700)
(500)
(300)
(100)
100
300
500
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
-600-350-100150400650900
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
100013001600190022002500
MW
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
2000
4000
6000
0400800120016002000
MW
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
400
800
1200
-500-250
0
250500750
100012501500175020002250
MW
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
MW
Potential Line Loading
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-400-300-200-1000100200
MW
2008 System
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
MW
(700)
(500)
(300)
(100)
100
300
500
% of
Hours
% of Time
Base
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
4 Fri
Jul 2008
5 Sat6 Sun7 Mon8 Tue9 Wed10 Thu11 Fri12 Sat13 Sun14 Mon15 Tue16 Wed
Unit Production
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
2008 Base Case
DRAFT - For Comment
Base Case Objectives
Focus on congestion that affects the cost of serving load in the RMATS sub-region
Assess the current system
Include existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress
Identify incidence and duration of congestion
Estimate the resulting congestion costs
Include several load, gas price, and hydro sensitivities
Review plant performance
Estimate the incremental value of expansion on congested paths
* 2013 loads applied to 2008 resources and transmission
Base Case Runs
High Load*
$4 Gas
Production cost model
West-wide scope with a particular focus on the RMATS region
Detailed transmission representation
Variable O&M
Treated as a fixed dispatch to the system
After hydro and wind dispatch, the net load is passed to thermal dispatch
LMP differences are dampened as hydro is included
Single test year – 2008
All results presented in 2004 dollars
Load, gas price, and wind resource capacity sensitivities
LMP- (Locational Marginal Price)
The cost of delivering the next 1 MW of power to a particular location, or the savings from reducing load by 1 MW at that location (sometimes called shadow price). Locations are modeled at nodel/bus level
2008 Base Case
Modeling Limitations
Modeling assumes a single, seamless west-wide market with no rate or loss pancaking
No institutional, tariff, or contractual impediments to trade
Omits wheeling charges (wheeling is assumed to be common to all)
Does not calculate loss charges (losses are netted against load)
LP optimizes dispatch on a west-wide basis (perfect knowledge)
1-world dispatch
Hydro and wind dispatch is determined outside ABB Market Simulator, then entered as shaped inputs around which thermal resources are dispatched
Perfect foresight on loads, transmission usage & reserve requirements
Not modeled:
Must-run generation
Unit commitment
Generator forced outages
Contractual / tariff constraints
Bid behavior
Policy related items such as renewable portfolio standards (RPS) & carbon emission limitations
Sub-hourly operations
2008 Base Case
Implications of Limitations
Tends to make fuller, more optimal use of transmission than operations currently allow
Analogous to seamless RTO world
Tends to mask the tariff and contractual constraints of today
Makes wind appear more economic because fewer constraints lead to greater dispatch
Fifteen percent planning margin used may be conservative
Margin is calculated off nameplate
Covers generator forced outages and operating reserves that ABB MS does not model
2008 Base Case
2
·
33 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. See page 9
3
·
As modeled by SSG-WI. Modifications are made to provide more in-depth look at the RMATS sub-region
4
·
New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 case, as validated by SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. Base case provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure
5
·
As provided by RMATS Load Forecast Work Group (LFWG), based on WECC Load Forecast issued in 2003 with RMATS modifications. See pages 10-13
6
·
2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential matches the 5th NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. These ranges are also consistent with the EIA, December 2003 updated forecast. See page 14
7
·
DSM for 2008 is decremented against load. A survey designed to quantify DSM was distributed but no reply to date.
8
·
Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 15-16. Any excess capacity is exported
9
·
Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed and with a description of associated transmission. See page 15
10
11
12
·
Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA Cost Benefit Study for RTO West. Includes modifications for coordinated maintenance. See page 21
13
·
All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves
14
·
As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team. See page 17
15
·
Assumptions consistent with SSG-WI Study. For wind shapes, NREL provided hourly profiles. See page 18
RMATS
2008 Base Case
Loads by Western Interconnect Region- 2008
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS modifications
NWPP-Canada
NWPP-US
Summer: 16.6
Winter: 20.3
Summer: 24.1
Winter: 30.8
Summer: 24.6
Winter: 21.4
Summer: 31.2
Winter: 24.7
Summer: 2.5
Winter: 2.2
Loads by Rocky Mountain Area - 2008
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS Modifications
Annual GWh with Non-Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (MW)
2008 Base Case
Loads by Western Interconnect Region- High
Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with RMATS modifications (2013 load level)
NWPP-Canada
NWPP-US
2008 Base Case
2008 vs High
2008 Base Case
Base case assumptions:
The 2008 US average Wellhead price set at $4.00 / MMBtu and at $5.00 / MMBtu
The basis differential is set to match the fifth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
For comparison, current 2008 Henry Hub Gas Future Price $4.70/MMBtu range (nominal $)
$5.00
Case
$4.00
Case
California prices include interstate pipeline charge of ~20¢
2008 Base Case
2008 Rocky Mountain Area Total Resources (MW)
Total Capacity
29,121 MW
Does not include additional wind capacity of 1750 MW
Incremental Additions
WI Total: 192,646 MW
RM Total: 29,121 MW
2008 Base Case
2008 Base Case
Assumptions
Added 1742 MW of Wind nameplate to base 508 MW for total of 2250 MW in the Rocky Mountain Area
Did not consider transmission impacts other than on monitored interfaces (feasibility may require significant transmission additions)
Wind MWhs displaced gas generation over 95% of time
Some hourly impacts on coal plants
2008 Base Case
Final 2013 Alternatives Only
Per Generation Technology / Age ($2004)
2008 Base Case
Fuel Type
Gas
CCCT
Coal
Steam
Coal
Steam
Coal
Steam
Coal
Updated outages to reflect a coordinated schedule
Model reduces dispatch for scheduled outages based upon user input for amount and time
(% year, very approximate)
Combined Cycle 7%
Western Interconnect Path Constraint Sensitivities
Evaluation of Potential Solutions
LMPs are calculated separately for loads and generation
In the base case, the lowest LMPs for loads are at Laramie River, Colorado-West, and Yellowtail
Lowest LMPs for generation are at Laramie River, Colorado-West, and Bonanza
Indicates generation is bottled up
LMPs tend to decrease as relatively low cost resources are added
High wind capacity sensitivity is an example
Targeted transmission investments would levelize/stabilize marginal prices because congestion is relieved
Sensitivities were run to explore the change in VOM costs if constraints are removed – all constraints west-wide, constraints internal to the Rocky Mountain sub-region only, and constraints on Rocky Mountain import/export paths only
VOM cost savings would be significant and reach broadly
Such savings alone do not justify making investments, however. Investment costs and other factors must also must be considered
Base Case Observations
2008 Base Case
Base Case Observations
The top 5 congested paths in the Rocky Mountain sub-region are also export-related paths:
Idaho to Montana
TOT 2C
Bridger West
IPP DC
TOT 3
The top 5 congested paths at $4 gas price are also the top 5 at $5 gas price
Dispatch ranking of plants is unchanged
Exception: high wind capacity sensitivity
Analysis includes a first look at opportunity costs (congestion costs) and potential solutions for three of the top 5 congested paths
Next steps: consider other alternative transmission solutions for 2008, determine capital costs, determine technical feasibility
2008 Base Case
Locational Marginal Prices
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
$4 Gas
* $4 Gas- H load- $26,325; 12%
Interface
% hours congested
337
337
$28,324
5%
300
300
$11,706
15%
2,200
N/A
$10,749
19%
1,920
300
$10,141
72%
1,424
N/A
$5,649
8%
200
200
$2,590
3%
Sorted
S N
Idaho to Montana ($4 gas, 2008 loads, high wind capacity)
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $19,047
Forward limit (S – N): 337 MW
Reverse limit (N – S): -337 MW
Power flowing south is congested 3% of all hours
Blue line is reverse limit
S N
S N
S N
1,042,362 MWh
was modeled with no constraints on all WI paths
1,373,642 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $20,341
Forward limit (N – S): 300 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): -300 MW
Power flowing south is congested 23% of all hours
N S
N S
N S
1,687,891 MWh
1,579,072 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $43,690
Forward limit (E – W): 2,200 MW
Reverse limit (W – E): N/A
Power flowing west is congested 36% of all hours
E W
E W
17,149,430 MWh
17,913,183 MWh
E W
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $13,067
Forward limit (NE – SE): 1900 MW
Reverse limit (SW – NE): -1400 MW
Power flowing south-east is congested 72% of all hours
NE SW
NE SW
NE SW
17,147,800 MWh
15,041,672 MWh
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $8,259
Forward limit (N – S): 1424 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): NA
Power flowing south-east is congested 10% of all hours
N S
7,880,417 MWh
8,903,396 MWh
N S
N S
N S
RMATS
SW Wyoming to Bonanza ($4 gas, 2008 loads, high wind capacity)
Base Case 2008
Opportunity cost of not increasing the line by 1 MW: $695
Forward limit (N – S): 265 MW
Reverse limit (S – N): -300 MW
Power flowing north is congested 1% of all hours
N S
N S
N S
739,634 MWh
739,634 MWh
$4 gas, 2008 loads, High Wind
Interface limitation
Annual average LMP
Load ($/MW)
Generator ($/MW)
Load ($/MW)
Generator ($/MW)
Base Case
13,642,615
(41,031)
38.01
37.41
.04
.17
13,691,688
(8,042)
38.03
37.41
.06
.17
Path Constraint Sensitivities
Path Constraint Sensitivities
Idaho to Montana ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Results
Decreases binding congestion to 1% from 5% of the time
Path loading increases by 1,673 MWh
1,102,119 MWh
1,103,792 MWh
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Increased line rating by 500 MW NE to SW (Forward limit ~ 2400 MW)
Results
Line loading increases by 2,863,577 MWh
Decreases binding congestion to 57% from 72% of the time
14,952,799 MWh
17,816,376 MWh
RMATS
SW Wyoming to Bonanza ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)
Potential solution
Potential Solution
Increased line rating by 100 MW (increase line limit to 300 MW from 200MW); this can be accomplished by adding a transformer and possibly line compensation.
Results
System wide cost decreases by ~$4.3 million; hydro model does not allow hydro redispatch.
Line loading increases by 7,170 MWh
Alleviates binding congestion, which now occur 3% of the time
902,434 MWh
909,604 MWh
Proposed transmission solutions were tested based on VOM cost savings
Capital costs are not considered (TAWG)
Power Flow/Stability analysis should be run to confirm technical feasibility; other solutions should be examined (e.g., FACTS device instead of phase shifters, etc.)
Measured savings apply to the entire Western Interconnect; this raises question about sharing the costs 9
2008 Base Case
Applies to all paths
Added about 1600 MW of resources to the SSG-WI 2008 case
Compares 2002 actual loads to 2008 base case
PDCI line flow is less than historic loadings; low load is caused by absence of contractual rights, tariff wheeling and tariff loss charges
Must consider modeling limitations when drawing conclusions
Benchmarking
Observation/Qualification
Path compares incredibly close; 99.4% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
Observation/Qualification
Path compares incredibly close; 99.7% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
Observation/Qualification
Path compares close; 99.4% correlation factor when comparing RMATS to actual
Minimal regional resources added
COI Duration Curve
COI - Taxed heavier in the south to north direction than was in SSG-WI
Baring some of the PDCI load
Hydro peak shaving algorithm
Path 26 Duration Curve
Path 26 - Between PG&E and Southern California Edison (Midway to Vincent; 3-500 kV lines)
Compares favorably with historic
One of the artifacts of not having wheeling; using the AC more than the DC
2008 Base Case
Southern California Import Transmission Nomogram (SCIT): Sum of Midway, PDCI, IPP, North of Lugo, and WOR
Market Place to Adelanto was left out in the SSG-WI model (counted twice; negative and positive, canceling each other out)
CISO no longer strictly enforces this path in their planning studies
2008 Base Case
East of the River Duration Curve
The SSG-WI line was considered to be reasonable by the SSG-WI planning group, given new resource additions
2008 Base Case
TOT2 (A+B+C) Duration Curve
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
TOT 2B1 Duration Curve
Pinto-Four Corners 345 kV
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
Glen Canyon to Sigurd (230kV)
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
Harry Allen-Red Butte
TOT2 - discrepancy with historic is do to "glut" of generation in Arizona
2008 Base Case
2008 Base Case
All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $
Sorted
Yellow highlighting indicates RMATS interfaces
All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $
2008 Base Case
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Forward Limit
LGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLGLG
SOCALIF
12122412121240.73 41.60 49.15 50.20 45.59 46.03 49.15 50.20 40.61 41.51 52.40 53.56
San Diego
25257725252540.42 39.26 48.80 47.25 44.71 45.12 48.80 47.25 40.27 39.04 52.18 50.21
LADWP
31315231313140.07 44.20 48.37 52.87 44.97 48.82 48.37 52.87 39.94 43.94 51.69 55.87
PG&E
43436643434340.02 40.55 48.27 48.87 44.87 45.17 48.27 48.87 39.83 40.33 51.63 51.93
Imperial
54544354545439.28 40.02 47.40 48.47 45.03 46.28 47.40 48.47 38.96 39.71 50.70 51.38
Sierra
66668566666738.61 38.72 46.67 46.76 44.54 45.61 46.67 46.76 38.24 38.31 49.94 49.49
Northwest
711711172171181071038.23 37.67 46.23 45.59 43.19 42.60 46.23 45.59 37.96 37.39 49.57 49.10
Mexico
81211101111107910938.16 37.61 46.05 45.63 67.46 66.28 46.05 45.63 38.00 37.42 49.51 49.23
BC Hydro
97871814871079638.13 38.40 46.15 46.47 43.09 43.34 46.15 46.47 37.86 38.14 49.55 49.89
Aquila
913913192491391281238.13 37.38 46.14 45.21 43.05 42.38 46.14 45.21 37.87 37.09 49.56 48.61
Idaho- West
Goshen
1281299812911812838.07 38.01 45.82 45.80 44.50 44.57 45.82 45.80 37.83 37.93 49.29 49.47
Utah- N
New Mexico
Broadview
West of Colstrip
Utah- S
Montana- West
Nevada
Bonanza
Colorado- E
IPP
N. Wyoming (BHB)
SW Wyoming
C Wyoming
Black Hills
Yellowtail
27827829142782511261136.67 38.01 44.50 46.06 42.26 43.34 44.50 46.06 35.82 37.14 46.97 48.65
Arizona
Colorado-W
Jim Bridger
WAPA L.C.
Laramie River
Alberta
33333333101333333231302934.41 34.25 41.99 41.82 44.47 43.41 41.99 41.82 34.33 34.18 45.74 45.57
$4 Gas$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Rank
Area
$5 Gas $5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas- H Load$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Wet
Median
Dry
MW
#
Inflation rate 2.5% applied to fuel and variable O&M
2
Transmission topology 33 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team . See
page 9
nomograms
As modeled by SSG-WI. Modifications are made to provide more in-depth look at the
RMATS sub-region
4
Transmission additions New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 case, as validated by
SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team . Base case
provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure
5
annual load growth
As provided by RMATS Load Forecast Work Group (LFWG), based on WECC Load
Forecast issued in 2003 with RMATS modifications. See pages 10-13
6
Gas prices 2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential matches
the 5
th
NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. These ranges are also consistent
with the EIA, December 2003 updated forecast. See page 14
7
Treatment of DSM DSM for 2008 is decremented against load. A survey designed to quantify DSM was
distributed but no reply to date.
8
Existing thermal plants Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 15-16. Any
excess capacity is exported
9
Resource additions Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper
permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed
and with a description of associated transmission. See page 15
10
Thermal plant lives All plants assumed to remain in operation
11
Hydro plant lives All plants assumed to remain in operation
12
Maintenance outages Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA Cost Benefit Study for RTO
West. Includes modifications for coordinated maintenance. See page 21
13
Generator cost curves All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves
14
Renewable resources As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team . See page 17
15
Wind modeling Assumptions consistent with SSG -WI Study. For wind shapes, NREL provided hourly
profiles. See page 18
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
NELWAY
BRIDGER
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCH
E
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Forward Limit
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Coal, 16,896
Gas, 6,838
Hydro, 4,629
Wind, 508
Other, 227
Geothermal, 23
Delta
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Potential Line Loading
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BiomCoalGasGeoNucl
Enforced
$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
IDAHO - MONTANA 337(337)TRUE11233428,324 22,058 14,220 14,045 19,047 13,514
TOT 2C 300(300)TRUE223102211,706 14,461 13,106 9,063 20,341 24,361
BRIDGER WEST 2,200NATRUE3422251110,749 11,220 476 557 43,690 52,781
IPP DC LINE 1,920(300)TRUE4311124310,141 11,247 6,148 7,336 13,067 14,233
TOT 3 1,424NATRUE5584555,649 6,450 9,043 12,098 8,259 12,185
BONANZA WEST 785NATRUE662324775,155 5,432 456 600 6,299 8,763
SW Wyoming to Bonanza 200(200)TRUE781113142,590 2,049 26,325 35,336 695 756
BROWNLEE EAST 1,750NATRUE8799982,579 4,213 8,781 9,281 1,610 3,987
PATH C 1,000(1,000)TRUE9101515891,381 1,658 2,160 3,697 1,969 2,941
Montana - Southeast 600(450)TRUE1011283014151,188 1,162 20 9 592 599
Yellowtail South (N-S) 625NATRUE119722017909 1,828 10,195 15,650 187 413
TOT 1A 650NATRUE121418191012861 392 1,158 1,337 1,329 1,440
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram 1,570(1,600)TRUE131521171523475 362 599 1,387 257 86
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV 1,400(1,200)TRUE141712141620324 280 5,231 5,283 256 273
IDAHO - NORTHWEST 2,400(1,200)TRUE151310131916260 550 6,943 6,150 193 467
TOT 7 890NATRUE161620211110237 293 834 1,070 1,119 2,073
TOT 5 1,675NATRUE17181716232464 126 1,247 1,736 40 75
TOT 2A 690NATRUE182158172161 42 11,774 10,766 237 242
Sierra Import Limits 1010NATRUE19192727221855 65 58 306 119 362
TOT 2B2 265(300)TRUE21121618271144 1,091 1,817 1,363 - 1,728
WEST OF BROADVIEW 2,573NATRUE22232931212216 7 - - 139 211
IDAHO - SIERRA 500(360)TRUE23242931252615 3 - - 15 9
MONTANA - NORTHWEST 2,200(1,350)TRUE2422293112135 18 - - 719 1,398
WEST OF COLSTRIP 2,598NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
WEST OF CROSSOVER 2,598NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
INTERMOUNTAIN - GONDER 230 KV 250NAFALSE252529312729- - - - - -
PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV 440(235)TRUE25251362628- - 4,790 11,005 10 6
TOT 2B 780(850)TRUE2525452729- - 12,812 11,781 - -
TOT 4A 810NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
TOT 4B 680NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
Black Hills to C Wyoming 332(332)TRUE252526292729- - 175 226 - -
Laramie River to C Wyomong 640(640)FALSE252529312729- - - - - -
N to S Utah 3,000(3,000)FALSE252529312729- - - - - -
SW Wyoming to N Utah 400(400)TRUE252519222729- - 885 839 - -
Black Hills to Big Horn 332(332)TRUE252529312729- - - - - -
Yellowtail North (S-N) 600NATRUE252529312729- - - - - -
West of Naughton (E-S&W) 920NATRUE25256766- - 11,005 10,966 6,461 10,285
Rank Opportunity Cost
$4 Case$5 CaseBasis
Wellhead w/Fuel use (4%) 4.16 5.20 0.16
Henry Hub-Wellhead w/fuel use 4.28 5.32 0.28
AECO 3.83 4.87 (0.17)
Rockies 3.88 4.92 (0.12)
UT-PACE 4.23 5.27 0.23
Wyoming 4.28 5.32 0.28
Montana 4.21 5.25 0.21
Idaho 4.23 5.27 0.23
Permian 4.11 5.15 0.11
Arizona 4.43 5.47 0.43
Gas Price Forecasts (2008)
STEP50/50*NYMEXRMATS- BaseRMATS- High
Enforced?
$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind$4 Gas$5 Gas$4 Gas- H Load$5 Gas- H Load$4 Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
SILVER PEAK - CONTROL 55 KV 17(17)TRUE111111145,253 182,185 170,543 252,830 97,324 129,798
WOR - PV to Devers 1,550NATRUE22322283,789 99,261 123,358 140,613 80,008 86,046
WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo 2,754NATRUE33663443,456 49,279 22,247 22,607 47,199 48,363
ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA 700(720)TRUE44445533,610 36,944 70,904 70,304 32,227 34,439
IDAHO - MONTANA 337(337)TRUE5691081028,324 22,058 14,220 14,045 19,047 13,514
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) 1,048(1,048)TRUE65776621,606 26,646 14,982 20,658 23,443 32,412
NW to Canada, East BC 400(400)TRUE711121491214,313 10,860 11,816 11,073 15,008 11,018
North of Miguel 2,000NATRUE87262910813,486 16,246 2,269 2,743 13,996 16,646
TOT 2C 300(300)TRUE9810197711,706 14,461 13,106 9,063 20,341 24,361
BRIDGER WEST 2,200NATRUE101040454310,749 11,220 476 557 43,690 52,781
IPP DC LINE 1,920(300)TRUE119212111910,141 11,247 6,148 7,336 13,067 14,233
Combined PACI & PDCI 7,300NATRUE1212202413157,393 8,052 6,167 6,638 7,277 8,541
TOT 3 1,424NATRUE1313161212115,649 6,450 9,043 12,098 8,259 12,185
BONANZA WEST 785NATRUE1414414415145,155 5,432 456 600 6,299 8,763
COI 4,800(3,675)TRUE1515302816163,821 4,906 1,899 3,281 5,130 4,801
Southern CA Imports 15,200(15,200)TRUE1616293417173,696 4,837 2,128 1,581 4,721 4,533
SW Wyoming to Bonanza 200(200)TRUE17195529302,590 2,049 26,325 35,336 695 756
BROWNLEE EAST 1,750NATRUE1817171820182,579 4,213 8,781 9,281 1,610 3,987
ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA 5,700NATRUE1918273018201,965 2,385 2,240 2,577 2,107 2,589
EOR - HASSYAMP- N.GILA 1,273NATRUE2023374221241,414 1,545 868 816 1,436 1,655
PATH C 1,000(1,000)TRUE2122282719191,381 1,658 2,160 3,697 1,969 2,941
NORTHWEST - CANADA 2,000(3,150)TRUE2220323123211,199 1,984 1,379 2,176 1,201 2,475
Montana - Southeast 600(450)TRUE2324495230311,188 1,162 20 9 592 599
CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) 408(800)TRUE2428232527935 596 158,912 133,957 946 1,050
Yellowtail South (N-S) 625NATRUE25211583834909 1,828 10,195 15,650 187 413
TOT 1A 650NATRUE263034372225861 392 1,158 1,337 1,329 1,440
PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI) 3,100(3,100)TRUE272724232828705 692 4,563 6,851 703 993
NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3,400(3,000)TRUE282645462629680 795 332 535 725 892
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram 1,570(1,600)TRUE293139353343475 362 599 1,387 257 86
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV 1,400(1,200)TRUE303322263439324 280 5,231 5,283 256 273
IDAHO - NORTHWEST 2,400(1,200)TRUE312919253733260 550 6,943 6,150 193 467
TOT 7 890NATRUE323238392422237 293 834 1,070 1,119 2,073
Imp.Valley to Miguel 1,560NATRUE333535403242210 219 1,030 990 273 165
MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE 1,500(400)TRUE343489464596 225 14,540 14,726 14 72
TOT 5 1,675NATRUE35363333424464 126 1,247 1,736 40 75
TOT 2A 690NATRUE36411317354061 42 11,774 10,766 237 242
Path 15 Borah W Summer NANATRUE37394249444955 52 412 253 19 8
Sierra Import Limits 1010NATRUE37384748413555 65 58 306 119 362
FOUR CORNERS 345_500 840(840)TRUE39375254403250 108 - - 121 592
NORTH OF SAN ONOFRE 2,440NATRUE39425051484650 41 9 24 8 23
TOT 2B2 265(300)TRUE41253136492344 1,091 1,817 1,363 - 1,728
INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE 56(56)TRUE42404322313742 47 400 6,870 573 275
WEST OF BROADVIEW 2,573NATRUE43455254394116 7 - - 139 211
IDAHO - SIERRA 500(360)TRUE44465254454815 3 - - 15 9
PG&E - SPP 160(150)TRUE4543181143368 20 7,349 13,192 38 276
Rank Opportunity Cost
IDAHO - NORTHWEST EastWest2,400 (1,200)
IDAHO - SIERRA NorthSouth500 (360)
BORAH WEST EastWest2,307 N/A
IDAHO - MONTANA SouthNorth337 (337)
BRIDGER WEST EastWest2,200 N/A
PATH C NorthSouth1,000 (1,000)
IPP DC LINE NESW1,920 (300)
INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV EastWest1,400 (1,200)
INTERMOUNTAIN - GONDER 230 KV EastWest250 N/A
TOT 1A EastWest650 N/A
TOT 2A NorthSouth690 N/A
BONANZA WEST EastWest785 N/A
TOT 2B NorthSouth780 (850)
TOT 2C NorthSouth300 (300)
TOT 3 NorthSouth1,424 N/A
TOT 4A NESW810 N/A
TOT 4B SENW680 N/A
TOT 5 WestEast1,675 N/A
TOT 7 NorthSouth890 N/A
BILLINGS - YELLOWTAIL NorthSouth400 (400)
BROWNLEE EAST WestEast1,850 N/A
TOT 2B1 NorthSouth560 (600)
TOT 2B2 NorthSouth265 (300)
Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram NorthSouth1,570 (1,600)
Montana - Southeast NorthSouth600 (450)
SW Wyoming to Bonanza NorthSouth200 (200)
N to S Utah NorthSouth3,000 (3,000)
SW Wyoming to N Utah EastWest400 (400)
Black Hills to Big Horn EastWest332 (332)
Yellowtail South (N-S) NorthSouth625 N/A
Yellowtail North (S-N) SouthNorth600 N/A
West of Naughton (E-S&W) EastWest920 N/A
Sierra Import Limits NorthSouth1,010 N/A
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
(w/ phase shifter)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 99.4%100.0%
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
Actual flow 1998 100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 99.3%99.3%99.4%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 99.4%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 97.6%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2002 100.0%
RMATS 2008 97.3%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2001(162) 850
Actual flow 2002437 948
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 99.2%99.2%100.0%
RMATS 2008 98.8%98.4%99.0%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 99.8%99.6%99.5%98.8%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 98.5%99.6%100.0%
RMATS 2008 78.2%82.8%85.3%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 93.6%95.0%97.2%91.8%100.0%
Mean (MW)
Actual flow 2000 100.0%
Actual flow 2002 99.3%99.8%100.0%
RMATS 2008 96.0%93.0%92.5%100.0%
SSG-WI 2008 92.9%89.4%88.8%99.6%100.0%
Correlation
RMATS 2008 (23) 118
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% of time
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100
% of time
RMATS 2008(139) 205
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
NW_Wind 650 650 MCNARY 500 Northwest
Wy_Wind 141 700 MINERS 230 SW Wyoming
alberta 150 150 LANGDON2 500 Alberta
CO_Wd1 160 290 LAMAR CO 230 Colorado- East
Plvy_Wd 144 300 RAILROAD 230 Utah- North
CO_Wd2 63 510 PEETZ 115 Colorado- East
E Tuscon 0 0 APACHST3 20 Arizona
Navajo 0 0 GLENC7-8 14 WAPA L.C
Tonopah 0 0 TONOPAH 69 Nevada
Vegas 0 0 PAHRUMP 230 Nevada
4Corners 0 0 SHIPROCK 230 WAPA L.C
Bend 0 0 REDMOND 230 Northwest
Co_Gorg2 0 0 CARSON 115 Northwest
Ellenbrg 0 0 ELLENSBG 115 Northwest
Spokane 0 0 CUSICK 230 Northwest
Id-East 0 125 ANTLOPE 230 Goshen
Id-Mid 0 0 MINIDOKA 138 Idaho
Mt-West 0 0 JACKRABT 161 Northwest
Mt-Main 0 175 SHELBY 230 Montana- West
Mont-E 0 0 COLSTRP 230 West of Colstrip
Ut-S 0 0 CENTRAL 138 Utah- South
Wy-BHB 0 150 BGEORGE 115 Big Horn Basin
Wy-BHill 0 0 RENO 230 Black Hills
Wy-LRS 0 0 HAPPYJCK 115 Laramie River
Wy- JB 0 0 FIREHOLE 230 Jim Bridger
Total MW 2,958 4,700
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE
MIDWAY
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% of Time
$ 4Gas- H Wind$5 Gas- H Wind
Reverse LimitForward Limit
Potential Line Loading
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-800-650-500-350-200-50100250400
MW
(700)
(500)
(300)
(100)
100
300
500
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
-600-350-100150400650900
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
100013001600190022002500
MW
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
2000
4000
6000
0400800120016002000
MW
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
MW
2008 System
Potential Line Loading
0
400
800
1200
-500-250
0
250500750
100012501500175020002250
MW
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
MW
Potential Line Loading
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-400-300-200-1000100200
MW
2008 System
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
MW
(700)
(500)
(300)
(100)
100
300
500
% of
Hours
% of Time
Base
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
% of Time
Base
4 Fri
Jul 2008
5 Sat6 Sun7 Mon8 Tue9 Wed10 Thu11 Fri12 Sat13 Sun14 Mon15 Tue16 Wed
Unit Production
500KV
+-500KV
DC
345KV
230KV
115-161KV
LANGE
WEST
HILL
STEGAL
COMANCHE