rocky mountain area transmission study transmission projects recommendations to rmats steering...

Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study RRocky ocky MMountain ountain AArea rea TTransmission ransmission SStudytudy

Transmission Projects

Recommendations to RMATS Steering Committee

June 9, 2004

2 RMATS Run Configurations- 05/27/04

Ant Mine/RenoDave Johnson

LRS

Cheyenne TapAult

Green Valley

Miners

Jim Bridger

NaughtonBen Lomond

Midpoint

345 kV

Borah

Recommendation 1Four projects

Added Phase Shifter

Broadview

Colstrip

Added Series Compensation Only

Ringling

Taft

Missoula

Intermountain

Adelanto

DC Upgrade

Montana Upgrades

WY-ID-UT Paths

WY- CO Paths

IPP DC upgrade

Mona

Red ButteCrystal

Treasureton

JB to Miners 345kV is present in all runs

Also, Amps phase shifter, Flaming Gorge transformer, Midpoint to Boise 230kV are present in all runs


Tesla

Table Mtn.

Grizzly

Ashe

Bell

Taft

Missoula

Great Falls

Broadview

RinglingColstrip

Ant MineDave Johnson

LRS

Cheyenne Tap

Ault

Green Valley

Miners

Jim Bridger

Naughton

Grand Junction

Emery

MonaIPP

Red Butte

Ben Lomond

Borah

Kinport

Midpoint

Boise

Crystal

Market Place

500 kV

230 kV

Adelanto

Option 1

Option 2

Option 4

Option 3

Recommendation 2Longer-term export options

Added Phase Shifter

Noxon

Hot Springs

This recommendation requires two 500 kV lines

for export


Incremental Resource Additions (MW) Alternative 2

500 Coal

210 Gas

500 Wind

280 Wind

575 Coal

140 Gas

250 Wind

700 Coal

250 Coal

125 Wind

100 Wind

500 Wind

1150 Wind

575 Coal

359 Coal

50 Wind


Recommendation 1Interfaces Changes from Line Additions

Interface Addition Before(Reverse) – Forward

After (Reverse) – Forward

Incremental(Reverse) – Forward

West of Colstrip Added Series Capacitor N/A - 2,598 N/A – 3,098 +500

West of Broadview Added Series Capacitor N/A – 2,572 N/A – 3,072 +500

Montana to Northwest Added Series Capacitor (1,350) - 2,200 (1,350) - 2,700 +500

Bridger West Bridger to Treasureton 345kV

Bridger to Naughton 345kV

N/A – 2,200 N/A – 3,400 +1,200

Borah West Borah to Midpoint 345kV N/A – 2,307 N/A – 2,807 +500

Path C Loop in Ben Lomond to Treasureton

Ben Lomond to Treasureton 345kV

(1,000) – 1,000 (1,500) – 1,500 +500

West of Naughton Naughton to Ben Lomond 345kV N/A – 920 N/A – 1,520 +600

West of Treasureton 2-345 kV lines from Treasureton to Borah +1,000

Bridger East Miners to Jim Bridger 345kV (600) - 600 (1,100) – 1,100 +500

Black Hills to C. Wyoming Ant Mine to DJ 345kV (332) - 332 (832) - 832 +500

Black Hills to LRS Ant Mine to LRS 345kV (332) - 332 (832) - 832 +500

LRS to C Wyoming DJ to LRS 345kV (640) - 640 (1140) - 1140 +500

TOT 3 Cheyenne Tap to Ault 345kV N/A – 1,424 N/A – 1,924 +500

TOT 7 Ault to Green Valley 345kV N/A – 890 N/A – 1390 +500

TOT 4A Miners to Cheyenne Tap 345kV N/A – 810 N/A – 1310 +500

IPP DC Upgrade Capacity (300) – 1,920 (300) – 2,400 +480

TOT 1A Emery to Grand Jct 345kV N/A – 650 N/A – 1,150 +500

TOT 2C Mona to Red Butte 345kV (300) - 300 (800) - 800 +500

Idaho to Montana Ringling to Borah 500kV (337) - 337 (1,337) – 1,337 +1,000

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Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

Opportunity Cost

% of Time @ Limit

1 ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA 47,933 70% 52,583 72% 50,125 71% 48,698 70% 48,271 70% 47,730 70% 47,667 70% 48,214 70%2 BRIDGER WEST 45,360 20% 31,431 16% 293,838 80% 46,286 19% 46,615 20% 36,401 17% 37,487 18% 40,345 19%3 WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo 42,184 58% 42,572 54% 38,202 47% 41,101 56% 44,458 60% 41,501 58% 39,462 55% 43,276 59%4 North of Miguel 41,508 64% 42,992 61% 43,509 60% 42,397 63% 42,010 63% 41,219 65% 40,700 64% 41,879 64%5 TOT 2C 39,166 30% 42,300 31% 29,246 20% 41,968 35% 53,120 33% 35,244 30% 561 2% 42,262 32%6 West of Naughton (E-S&W) 33,661 26% 60,695 32% 7,053 3% 56,214 37% 23,993 19% 40,127 28% 39,028 29% 40,483 29%7 TOT 3 24,595 17% 38,385 25% 82,792 43% - 0% 25,238 18% 23,537 16% 23,923 16% 25,224 17%8 SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) 18,371 22% 18,832 23% 19,085 26% 18,780 23% 18,419 22% 18,200 21% 18,088 21% 18,717 23%9 MONTANA - NORTHWEST 14,789 8% 38,188 14% 2,603 2% 15,467 7% 17,063 9% 16,520 9% 15,551 8% 2,221 3%

10 NW to Canada, East BC 12,656 9% 11,903 9% 11,944 9% 12,248 9% 14,213 6% 12,694 10% 12,449 9% 13,019 9%11 Bridger East 12,447 7% 8,206 5% 6,032 4% 15,207 8% 11,931 6% 10,282 5% 10,037 7% 8,844 5%12 WEST OF BROADVIEW 11,158 8% 128,277 41% 1,858 1% 15,839 8% 12,876 9% 11,590 8% 11,276 8% 30,908 15%13 Combined PACI & PDCI 10,873 23% 10,380 21% 9,553 18% 11,389 23% 12,240 24% 11,095 24% 11,034 26% 9,983 23%14 BONANZA WEST 9,861 7% 8,936 5% 33,487 18% 4,953 3% 6,982 4% 2,673 2% 5,188 5% 8,126 6%15 BROWNLEE EAST 5,739 2% 5,738 2% 6,412 1% 6,222 2% 5,034 1% 5,781 2% 5,619 2% 1,371 0%16 CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) 5,453 48% 5,166 46% 4,852 44% 5,361 47% 5,415 48% 5,549 48% 5,473 47% 5,483 48%17 ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA 5,181 44% 5,142 42% 4,473 34% 5,421 45% 5,398 45% 5,209 46% 5,280 46% 5,299 45%18 TOT 1A 4,228 5% 2,038 2% 6,077 5% 1,020 2% 3,165 4% 36 0% 2,918 5% 3,577 4%19 TOT 2B2 3,262 3% 3,172 3% 1,757 2% 3,364 3% 6,634 5% 2,785 2% 150 0% 4,201 4%20 IDAHO - NORTHWEST 3,257 3% 3,307 3% 7,455 4% 3,611 3% 3,158 2% 3,329 2% 3,450 3% 1,307 1%21 NORTHWEST - CANADA 3,055 2% 2,841 2% 2,541 2% 2,850 2% 3,344 2% 3,049 2% 2,709 2% 2,853 2%22 IDAHO - MONTANA 2,932 1% 2,955 1% 4,169 1% 4,373 2% 3,572 1% 3,035 1% 2,122 1% 791 1%23 COI 2,769 5,622 7,314 3,718 2,534 2,653 3,769 2,779 24 PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI) 2,556 3,800 4,026 2,665 2,713 2,560 2,363 2,046 25 Imp.Valley to Miguel 2,470 2,554 2,259 2,487 2,389 2,541 2,551 2,452 26 Southern CA Imports 2,383 2,225 2,113 2,172 2,083 2,375 2,047 2,701 27 Yellowtail South (N-S) 1,972 1,981 529 1,094 2,080 1,813 2,001 77 28 INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV 1,945 3,470 3,678 3,178 680 2,294 2,555 1,480 29 NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 1,872 2,073 2,997 2,058 1,893 1,872 1,960 1,843 30 NORTH OF SAN ONOFRE 1,781 1,682 1,614 1,710 1,858 1,779 1,722 1,812 31 IPP DC LINE 1,568 2,626 - 1,744 - 1,561 1,438 1,499 32 MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE 1,529 1,157 603 1,742 2,314 1,624 1,530 3,589 33 PG&E - SPP 1,339 573 601 961 1,319 1,463 2,561 1,927 34 Montana - Southeast 1,273 1,882 - 1,809 1,738 2,167 1,873 3,009 35 INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE 1,174 3,084 1,454 2,429 1,599 927 986 1,193 36 TOT 7 1,068 3,193 2,808 41,091 36% 993 814 975 1,039 37 EOR - HASSYAMP- N.GILA 375 434 453 420 365 378 393 367 38 TOT 2A 314 229 405 71 308 172 877 285 39 Sierra Import Limits 249 251 126 250 255 248 250 245 40 SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS 102 96 106 35 148 - 4,676 81 41 PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV 40 3 - 64 132 149 427 18 42 BILLINGS - YELLOWTAIL 33 - - 18 61 41 20 78 43 TOT 5 25 25 1 161 33 25 21 34 44 Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram 18 27 66 22 12 19 9 20 45 LUGO - VICTORVILLE 500 KV LINE 14 17 2 31 14 - 14 10 46 N to S Utah 11 11 1,123 2 12 11 19 1 47 BORAH WEST 1 - - - 55 12 8 95 48 PERKINS - MEAD - MARKETPLACE 500 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1

NameRowRun 5 Run 6 Run 7 Run 8Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 Run 4*

Add MT-IDAdd TOT 2CAdd TOT 1ANo IPP DCNo CO-WYNo ID-WY-UTNo MTAll

Interface Performance

* Black Hills to Central Wyoming in Run 4- binds 74% of the time, with an opportunity cost of $378,050

Sort


VOM Costs by Area($ Millions)

1 New Mexico 449 482 452 448 444 450 451 4342 Arizona 3,958 4,245 3,984 3,956 3,913 3,974 3,967 37083 Nevada 1,192 1,226 1,158 1,202 1,236 1,185 1,179 10344 WAPA- LC 448 503 459 456 461 456 455 4165 Mexico- C 880 888 878 876 873 877 878 8676 Imperial 18 22 18 18 18 18 18 147 San Diego 780 896 780 775 765 773 779 6528 So. California 1,493 1,684 1,468 1,451 1,456 1,454 1,476 13039 LADWP 304 358 274 276 271 273 274 265

10 IPP 274 253 253 253 253 253 253 34011 PG AND E 3,359 3,599 3,311 3,411 3,634 3,355 3,338 298712 Northwest 2,191 2,329 2,167 2,210 2,129 2,181 2,168 196313 BC Hydro 540 585 531 543 551 532 531 47914 Aquila 32 33 32 32 32 32 32 3015 Alberta 1,433 1,452 1,431 1,439 1,435 1,433 1,431 141116 Idaho- West 0 14 2 2 5 2 1 018 Montana- West - 0 0 0 0 0 0 7119 Sierra 235 305 237 232 259 235 232 21520 Wyoming- Central 62 50 76 76 76 73 76 11322 Bonanza 68 69 68 68 68 69 68 6523 Utah- North 163 213 166 161 157 163 163 14224 Utah- South 524 369 444 430 434 441 432 41525 Colorado- East 732 931 734 671 638 690 731 66326 Colorado- West 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 20028 Black Hills 58 76 58 57 53 98 58 5329 LRS 83 83 82 82 82 83 82 8230 JB 331 261 304 304 250 303 303 30332 Broadview 17 17 37 35 37 37 37 4833 CRSOVRCO 165 165 177 167 177 177 177 185

Total 19,989 21,307 19,783 19,831 19,907 19,815 19,790 18,458

Delta from Reference Case (1,524) (1,476) (1,400) (1,492) (1,517) (2,849)

Delta from Alt 2 Case (206) (158) (82) (174) (199) (1,531)

Alt 3 (Exports)

Alt 1 Add Gen/No TX Area

Reference Case

For Comparison

AllAll less

MontanaAll less ID-WY-

UTAll less CO-

WYAll less IPP

DC

Montana Lines Compensation

Bridger System

AdditionsCO-WY

AdditionsIPP DC

Upgrade

Valuation by Project (Incremental Savings) (48) (124) (32) (7)Capital Costs ($) 72,100 556,150 305,740 65,000


See Comparative Economic Analysis Tables (3)

Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study RRocky ocky MMountain ountain AArea rea TTransmission ransmission SStudytudy

SensitivitiesSensitivities (applied to Alternative 3 – Option 3)

• Hydro (high & low)• Gas (low: $4.5)• Add Mohave

• CO2 Adder ($5 & $15)

• DSM


Annual VOM Costs Sensitivities – ($Millions)

Sensitivity AnalysisTotal Western Interconnect VOM Costs ($Millions)

14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000

Alt 3- Option 3

Low Hydro

High Hydro

$4.50 Gas

Add Mohave

Se

ns

itiv

ity

VOM Cost ($Millions)

Delta from Alt 3- Option 3ID Area Name Alt 3 Option 3 Low Hydro High Hydro $4.50 Gas Add Mohave Low Hydro High Hydro $4.50 Gas Add Mohave 1 New Mexico 434 445 427 409 427 11 (6) (25) (7)2 Arizona 3,714 3,880 3,517 3,097 3,515 166 (197) (617) (199)3 Nevada 927 967 866 711 517 40 (61) (216) (410)4 WAPA- LC 418 432 392 316 264 14 (26) (102) (154)5 Mexico- C 866 874 852 650 858 7 (14) (216) (8)6 Imperial 14 20 10 12 15 5 (4) (2) 07 San Diego 654 821 537 462 635 167 (116) (192) (19)8 So. California 1,318 1,644 1,161 1,004 1,698 326 (157) (314) 3809 LADWP 257 288 249 194 253 31 (8) (63) (4)

10 IPP 339 341 339 339 340 2 (1) (1) 011 PG AND E 3,155 3,608 2,678 2,402 3,209 452 (478) (753) 5312 Northwest 1,908 2,379 1,550 1,504 1,941 471 (358) (404) 3213 BC Hydro 471 593 388 346 480 122 (82) (125) 914 Aquila 29 32 25 20 29 3 (4) (9) (0)15 Alberta 1,404 1,452 1,337 1,154 1,402 48 (68) (251) (2)16 Idaho- West - 0 0 - - 0 0 0 018 Montana- West 69 80 61 50 71 11 (8) (19) 219 Sierra 213 242 196 180 213 29 (17) (34) (0)20 Wyoming- Central 112 112 111 109 112 0 (1) (3) 022 Bonanza 63 65 62 63 64 2 (1) (1) 023 Utah- North 142 158 130 127 136 15 (12) (15) (6)24 Utah- South 422 433 407 372 420 10 (15) (50) (2)25 Colorado- East 662 713 631 596 650 51 (31) (66) (12)26 Colorado- West 200 200 200 200 200 0 (0) 0 028 Black Hills 53 58 50 52 51 5 (2) (0) (1)29 LRS 83 83 83 83 83 0 (0) 0 030 JB 305 305 300 305 305 0 (5) 0 (0)32 Broadview 48 48 48 48 48 0 (0) (0) (0)33 CRSOVRCO 185 184 184 185 185 (1) (1) 0 0

Total 18,465 20,454 16,792 14,988 18,118 1,988 (1,673) (3,477) (347)


CO2 Adder Sensitivity

Methodology

1. Started with reference case’s emissions

2. Calculated emissions delta from reference case

3. Multiplied step 2’s emissions by $5 & $15

Delta from Reference Case$ (Millions) $5 $15

Alt 1 28 85Alt 2 33 100

Alt 3- Option 1 78 234Alt 3- Option 2 80 240Alt 3- Option 3 80 239Alt 3- Option 4 80 239Alt 4- Option 1 74 221Alt 4- Option 2 73 220DSM- Option 1 (75) (226)DSM- Option 2 (62) (185)

Alt 3- Opt 3: Low Hydro 176 528Alt 3- Opt 3: High Hydro (7) (20)Alt 3- Opt 3: $4.50 Gas 80 240Alt 3- Opt 3: Mohave in 121 362

CO2 Adder Amount

Incremental CO2 Adder ImpactDelta from Reference Case

($300) ($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Alternative 4

Alternative 3

Alternative 2

Alternative 1

DSM- Option 1

DSM- Option 2

Alt 3- Opt 3: LowHydro

Alt 3- Opt 3: HighHydro

Alt 3- Opt 3: $4.50 Gas

Alt 3- Opt 3: Mohavein

Millions

$15

$5


Change in Loads with DSM (MW) - Year 2013

Est. Load After Assumed DSM FactorRegion Annual Energy Summer Peak Winter Peak Peak Growth

MWh MW MW Summer (from 2008)RMATS 149,196,529 23,803 21,823 100Az, NM, S. Nv 149,915,758 29,432 21,241 883California 323,394,364 58,965 45,070 522Or,Wa, N. Nv 185,403,864 25,610 31,003 753Canada 134,489,410 16,446 21,831 132Mexico 19,896,003 3,626 2,600 1,130

Totals 962,295,928 157,882 143,568 3,520

RMATS load growth from 2008 to 2013 with DSM sensitivity is equivalent to 100 MW

If generating resources in the 2013 alternatives are added, then 3,900 MW would be exportable

Sensitivities:• DSM Option 1 makes use of 2013 loads applied to 2008 resources and

transmission

• DSM Option 2 includes 2013 loads, Alternative 2 resources and DSM amount equivalent 1X Rocky Mountains sub-region load growth. It does not take into account resources that also may be required for planning margin.


Transmission Additions DSM Sensitivity- Option 2

Ashe Taft

Missoula

Broadview

RinglingColstrip

Ant MineDave Johnson

LRS

Cheyenne TapMiners

Jim Bridger

Naughton

MonaIPP

Red Butte

Ben Lomond

Borah

Crystal

Market Place

500 kV

Additional DC

345 kV

230 kV

Added Transformer Adelanto

Added Phase Shifter

Added Series Compensation Only

BellGreat Falls

Noxon

Hot Springs

* Option 1 requires no new transmission

As with Alternative 3, two- 500 kV lines are

required to export 3,200 MW


Change in Opportunity Costs with Tx SolutionsDSM Sensitivities

Sort

Line Interface Reverse Forward Opportunity % Time at Opportunity % Time at Opportunity % Time at 1 BRIDGER WEST N/A 2,200 10,489 16% 284,949 81% - 0%2 Black Hills to C Wyoming (332) 332 - 0% 218,376 80% - 0%3 TOT 3 N/A 1,424 8,782 10% 199,633 68% 35,762 24%4 WEST OF BROADVIEW N/A 2,573 - 0% 178,097 46% - 0%5 CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) (800) 408 172,362 55% 177,213 56% 179,521 57%6 MONTANA - NORTHWEST (1,350) 2,200 21 0% 85,139 23% 129 0%7 BONANZA WEST N/A 785 6,073 9% 70,094 42% 73,259 47%8 WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo N/A 2,754 56,394 48% 58,397 46% 70,927 62%9 ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA (720) 700 56,226 73% 51,777 71% 39,562 65%10 TOT 2C (300) 300 2,878 10% 49,388 27% 1,209 5%11 IPP DC LINE (300) 1,920 9,057 62% 43,033 80% 8,973 40%12 SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) (1,048) 1,048 18,965 21% 33,464 42% 30,695 32%13 West of Naughton (E-S&W) N/A 920 - 0% 23,696 10% - 0%14 ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA N/A 5,700 13,894 43% 22,641 42% 11,907 42%15 INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE (56) 56 5,269 3% 20,393 8% 2,348 1%16 Montana - Southeast (450) 600 186 0% 17,241 11% 75,188 28%17 COI (3,675) 4,800 2,325 19% 14,424 57% 10,415 34%18 Combined PACI & PDCI N/A 7,300 7,522 15% 14,325 15% 16,279 21%19 NW to Canada, East BC (400) 400 8,776 6% 13,320 7% 13,076 8%20 TOT 1A N/A 650 879 0% 13,088 10% 6,969 5%21 SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS N/A 2,325 - 0% 11,285 5% 6,140 3%22 PATH C (1,000) 1,000 5,503 5% 7,381 5% 14,552 8%23 TOT 2B2 (300) 265 202 0% 7,351 6% 23 0%24 North of Miguel N/A 2,000 4,860 19% 6,962 18% 5,348 17%25 Colstrip South (500) 500 N/A N/A N/A N/A 14,056 7%

Existing Limits Option 2Option 1 Add Gen, No Tx


VOM Costs No Generation/ No Tx SolutionsDSM – ($Millions)

Negative (red) values indicate reduction in fuel cost due to displacement

Positive (black) values indicate increased fuel cost due to higher dispatch

Option 1Add Gen, No

Tx Option 2Value of

GenValue of Option 2

(a) (b) (c) (b - c) (c - a)1 New Mexico 449 403 418 (46) (31)2 Arizona 3,890 3,532 3,683 (358) (208)3 Nevada 1,118 1,097 908 (21) (209)4 WAPA- LC 533 509 493 (24) (41)5 Mexico- C 660 648 651 (11) (9)6 Imperial 30 27 25 (3) (4)7 San Diego 674 582 601 (91) (73)8 So. California 1,859 1,529 1,516 (330) (343)9 LADWP 479 366 346 (113) (133)

10 IPP 250 250 250 (0) 011 PG AND E 3,834 3,720 3,320 (114) (514)12 Northwest 1,855 1,740 1,619 (115) (235)13 BC Hydro 351 312 267 (39) (84)14 Aquila 0 0 0 (0) (0)15 Alberta 1,249 1,231 1,211 (17) (38)16 Idaho- West 3 3 0 0 (3)18 Montana- West 0 0 0 0 019 Sierra 172 139 131 (33) (41)20 Wyoming- Central 49 71 76 21 2622 Bonanza 69 67 67 (2) (1)23 Utah- North 216 151 183 (65) (32)24 Utah- South 386 431 471 45 8525 Colorado- East 895 692 802 (203) (92)26 Colorado- West 200 198 200 (2) (1)28 Black Hills 80 58 64 (22) (16)29 LRS 83 76 82 (6) (0)30 JB 261 241 307 (20) 4632 Broadview 17 33 36 15 1833 CRSOVRCO 165 160 177 (5) 12

Total 19,826 18,267 17,905 (1,559) (1,921)

ID Area

rocky mountain area transmission study transmission projects recommendations to rmats steering...

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