2011 07 15 material evidence

8/3/2019 2011 07 15 Material Evidence

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2 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerAustrianUSMoneySupplyvFRB,Assets,Commodities&Currency

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

Jan06

Jul06

Jan07

Jul07

Jan08

Jul08

Jan09

Jul09

Jan10

Jul10

Jan11

$450

$1,000

$1,550

$2,100

$2,650

GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)

AMS(lhs)

SecuritiesOwned(rhs)

BizSalesrescaled(rhs)

QEI

QEII

LEHAIG

AustrianUSMoneySupplyvFRB,Assets,Commodities&Currency

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

Jan06

Jul06

Jan07

Jul07

Jan08

Jul08

Jan09

Jul09

Jan10

Jul10

Jan11

$450

$1,000

$1,550

$2,100

$2,650

GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)

AMS(lhs)

JunkSprd(rhs,inverted)

S&P500rescaled(rhs)

QEI

QEII

LEHAIG

AustrianUS

Money

Supply

vFRB,

Assets,

Commodities

&

Currency

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

Jan06

Jul06

Jan07

Jul07

Jan08

Jul08

Jan09

Jul09

Jan10

Jul10

Jan11

$450

$1,000

$1,550

$2,100

$2,650GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)

AMS(lhs)

USDTWI(rhs,inverted)

IMFCMDrescaled(rhs)

QEI

QEII

LEHAIG

AustrianUS

Money

Supply

vFRB,

Assets,

Commodities

&

Currency

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

Jan06

Jul06

Jan07

Jul07

Jan08

Jul08

Jan09

Jul09

Jan10

Jul10

Jan11

$450

$1,000

$1,550

$2,100

$2,650GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)

AMS(lhs)

Goldrescaled(rhs)

Copperrescaled(rhs)

BrentCrude(rhs)

QEI

QEII

LEHAIG

What the Feb hath wrought:

QEII in four graphs


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3 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer

Thank you, Mr. Chairman!


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5/13


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6 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer3mmaofUKRealAMSYOY%vd2(IPYOY)/d12&BusinessSalesYOY%,t+5

16.0

8.0

0.0

8.0

Jun

91

Dec93

Jun96

Dec98

Jun01

Dec03

Jun

06

Dec08

Jun

11

15.0

7.5

0.0

7.5

15.0rAMSYOY(lhs)

IPd2YOY(rhs)

Biz

sales

(rhs)

CLSA/HSBCPMI

3mma

YOY

vChina

Real

M1

d2

(6mma)

three

months

earlier

0.0

12.5

25.0

37.5

Jun97

Jun99

Jun01

Jun03

Jun05

Jun07

Jun09

Jun1112.0

6.0

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

rM1YOY

CLSAYOYNet(lhs)

RJPNM1yoy%

vSME

Sales

&

Profits,

t+6

10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan80

Jan84

Jan88

Jan92

Jan96

Jan00

Jan04

Jan08

45.0

30.0

15.0

0.0

15.0

rM1(lhs)

d2rM1(lhs)

Profits(rhs)

Sales(rhs)

UKDeficits,Lending&Forexreserves

400,000

200,000

0

200,000

400,000

Mar99

Mar01

Mar03

Mar05

Mar07

Mar09

Mar11

73.0

83.0

93.0

103.0

EMFX

ADVFX

CA/CInverse

XSM4L

CurrentA/c

STGTWI(rhs)

Is the UK tipping back into the abyss?Same deficit: a few

more tears

Not much yet from

the Nihonbashi

Water torture...


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7 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerYOY%Changein3mmaGermanIndustrialRevenues&Orders

40.0

25.0

10.0

5.0

20.0

35.0

Jan03

Jan05

Jan07

Jan09

Jan11

All

DOMConsumer

Export

NonEZCapGds

ForeignOrders

German&EZexGERRealM1vrealretailsalesYOYof3mma

10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan80

Jan85

Jan90

Jan95

Jan00

Jan05

Jan10

5

4

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

German

OtherEZ

GERRetS(rhs)

2nd

difference

of

rEUM1%

v

change

in

Swiss

PMI,

(t+6)

and

IfO

(t+9)

30.0

15.0

0.0

15.0

30.0

Mar96

Mar00

Mar04

Mar08

Mar12

1

6.

0.

6.

12

SwissPMI(lhs)

rEUM1(rhs)

GERIfO(lhs)

Swiss PMI (bl) v IfO r2=0.77,

4.1 stdev from mean: 1995-td

Europes engines beginning to

splutter


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China Net Imports Coal

2004-td

China Net Exports Al

2002-td

China Net Exports Steel

2004-td

China Net Imports Cu

2001-td

China Net Imports Iron Ore

1999-td

China Net Crude IMP yoy 2001-td


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10 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerChineseHo tMoneyFlows (rebased), blns,vs VisibleLME&Shanghaistockvalue(mlns)

$0

$7,000

$14,000

$21,000

$28,000

$0

$125

$250

$375

$500LME&SHINV

(lhs)

CumulativeFlows(rhs)

Chinesehotmoney=quantity ofForex

reservesunexplainedbythesumofthe

tradebalance,FDI,earned interest, and

FXrevaluations(thelattertwo

estimated)

Al &Cu

Al,Cu& Zn

&Pb

Chinese3month

Hot

Money

Flows

(rebased),

blns,

vs

Net

Copper

import

value

(mlns)

$1,300

$2,500

$3,700

$4,900

$6,100

$7,300

$8,500

Feb

05

Feb

06

Feb07

Feb

08

Feb

09

Feb

10

Feb11

$120

$60

$0

$60

$120

HotFlows(rhs)

NetCu Imports(lhs)

Chinesehotmoney=quantityofForex

reservesunexplainedbythesumof the

tradebalance,FDI,earned interest,and

FX revaluations(thelattertwo

estimated)


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Active Brent

Bernanke Bubble

WTI Front-month

Oct08-td

Shanghai Copper

2003-td

DCI Agri x USDTWI

2003-td


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2011 07 15 material evidence

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