Download - 2011 07 15 Material Evidence
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2 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerAustrianUSMoneySupplyvFRB,Assets,Commodities&Currency
$2,100
$2,300
$2,500
$2,700
$2,900
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
$450
$1,000
$1,550
$2,100
$2,650
GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)
AMS(lhs)
SecuritiesOwned(rhs)
BizSalesrescaled(rhs)
QEI
QEII
LEHAIG
AustrianUSMoneySupplyvFRB,Assets,Commodities&Currency
$2,100
$2,300
$2,500
$2,700
$2,900
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
$450
$1,000
$1,550
$2,100
$2,650
GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)
AMS(lhs)
JunkSprd(rhs,inverted)
S&P500rescaled(rhs)
QEI
QEII
LEHAIG
AustrianUS
Money
Supply
vFRB,
Assets,
Commodities
&
Currency
$2,100
$2,300
$2,500
$2,700
$2,900
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
$450
$1,000
$1,550
$2,100
$2,650GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)
AMS(lhs)
USDTWI(rhs,inverted)
IMFCMDrescaled(rhs)
QEI
QEII
LEHAIG
AustrianUS
Money
Supply
vFRB,
Assets,
Commodities
&
Currency
$2,100
$2,300
$2,500
$2,700
$2,900
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
$450
$1,000
$1,550
$2,100
$2,650GrossBalanceSheetrescaled(lhs)
AMS(lhs)
Goldrescaled(rhs)
Copperrescaled(rhs)
BrentCrude(rhs)
QEI
QEII
LEHAIG
What the Feb hath wrought:
QEII in four graphs
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3 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer
Thank you, Mr. Chairman!
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6 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer3mmaofUKRealAMSYOY%vd2(IPYOY)/d12&BusinessSalesYOY%,t+5
16.0
8.0
0.0
8.0
Jun
91
Dec93
Jun96
Dec98
Jun01
Dec03
Jun
06
Dec08
Jun
11
15.0
7.5
0.0
7.5
15.0rAMSYOY(lhs)
IPd2YOY(rhs)
Biz
sales
(rhs)
CLSA/HSBCPMI
3mma
YOY
vChina
Real
M1
d2
(6mma)
three
months
earlier
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
Jun97
Jun99
Jun01
Jun03
Jun05
Jun07
Jun09
Jun1112.0
6.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
rM1YOY
CLSAYOYNet(lhs)
RJPNM1yoy%
vSME
Sales
&
Profits,
t+6
10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan80
Jan84
Jan88
Jan92
Jan96
Jan00
Jan04
Jan08
45.0
30.0
15.0
0.0
15.0
rM1(lhs)
d2rM1(lhs)
Profits(rhs)
Sales(rhs)
UKDeficits,Lending&Forexreserves
400,000
200,000
0
200,000
400,000
Mar99
Mar01
Mar03
Mar05
Mar07
Mar09
Mar11
73.0
83.0
93.0
103.0
EMFX
ADVFX
CA/CInverse
XSM4L
CurrentA/c
STGTWI(rhs)
Is the UK tipping back into the abyss?Same deficit: a few
more tears
Not much yet from
the Nihonbashi
Water torture...
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7 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerYOY%Changein3mmaGermanIndustrialRevenues&Orders
40.0
25.0
10.0
5.0
20.0
35.0
Jan03
Jan05
Jan07
Jan09
Jan11
All
DOMConsumer
Export
NonEZCapGds
ForeignOrders
German&EZexGERRealM1vrealretailsalesYOYof3mma
10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan80
Jan85
Jan90
Jan95
Jan00
Jan05
Jan10
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
German
OtherEZ
GERRetS(rhs)
2nd
difference
of
rEUM1%
v
change
in
Swiss
PMI,
(t+6)
and
IfO
(t+9)
30.0
15.0
0.0
15.0
30.0
Mar96
Mar00
Mar04
Mar08
Mar12
1
6.
0.
6.
12
SwissPMI(lhs)
rEUM1(rhs)
GERIfO(lhs)
Swiss PMI (bl) v IfO r2=0.77,
4.1 stdev from mean: 1995-td
Europes engines beginning to
splutter
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9 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer
China Net Imports Coal
2004-td
China Net Exports Al
2002-td
China Net Exports Steel
2004-td
China Net Imports Cu
2001-td
China Net Imports Iron Ore
1999-td
China Net Crude IMP yoy 2001-td
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10 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimerChineseHo tMoneyFlows (rebased), blns,vs VisibleLME&Shanghaistockvalue(mlns)
$0
$7,000
$14,000
$21,000
$28,000
$0
$125
$250
$375
$500LME&SHINV
(lhs)
CumulativeFlows(rhs)
Chinesehotmoney=quantity ofForex
reservesunexplainedbythesumofthe
tradebalance,FDI,earned interest, and
FXrevaluations(thelattertwo
estimated)
Al &Cu
Al,Cu& Zn
&Pb
Chinese3month
Hot
Money
Flows
(rebased),
blns,
vs
Net
Copper
import
value
(mlns)
$1,300
$2,500
$3,700
$4,900
$6,100
$7,300
$8,500
Feb
05
Feb
06
Feb07
Feb
08
Feb
09
Feb
10
Feb11
$120
$60
$0
$60
$120
HotFlows(rhs)
NetCu Imports(lhs)
Chinesehotmoney=quantityofForex
reservesunexplainedbythesumof the
tradebalance,FDI,earned interest,and
FX revaluations(thelattertwo
estimated)
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12 Material Evidence by Sean Corrigan 15th July 2011 Please see accompanying risk & legal disclaimer
Active Brent
Bernanke Bubble
WTI Front-month
Oct08-td
Shanghai Copper
2003-td
DCI Agri x USDTWI
2003-td
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