2011 northeast la business outlook summit dr. robert eisenstadt, university of louisiana at monroe...
TRANSCRIPT
2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at MonroeDr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University
PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will
be made available for review on-line at:
cba.ulm.edu/cber
The Change in Real Louisiana GSP
State
2005-2007 2007-2009
Rank % change Rank % change
Oregon 1 13.6% 31 -2.7%
Wyoming 2 13.0% 1 19.6%
Utah 3 12.5% 11 0.2%
Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%
Arizona 5 10.0% 46 -5.9%
Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%
State
2005-2007 2007-2009
Rank % change Rank % change
Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%
Arkansas 31 3.4% 10 0.6%
Mississippi 21 5.0% 9 0.8%
Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%
The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued
Metropolitan Area
2005-2007 2007-2009
State Rank
% change
State Rank
% change
Lafayette 1 16.7% 3 4.6%
Alexandria 2 6.7% 7 -2.3%
Shreveport-Bossier City 3 3.3% 1 9.3%
Monroe 4 1.9% 6 -1.6%
Baton Rouge 5 -7.9% 4 1.8%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner 6 -11.3% 2 5.8%
Lake Charles 7 -31.3% 5 0.4%
The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA
Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010
2000-2010 change in US = 9.7%2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%
Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010
Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800
Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA
Hispanic as % of Population 1980 2010
Louisiana 2.35% 4.25%United States 6.45% 16.35%
Other Economic Indicators
New Light Trucks/Vans:
State/Year 2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 157,665 126,574 92,105 98,783NE Louisiana 10,201 8,418 6,281 7,057
New Automobiles:
2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 98,083 89,258 65,782 61,637NE Louisiana 4,462 4,376 3,254 3,399
NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles:
Source: Cross-Sell Reports
Building Permits:
Housing Permits Ouachita Parish
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Building Permits 580 516 437 271 232 219Total Cost (millions $) $103.6 $89.5 $68.0 $47.3 $38.5 $37.3
Building Permit Value:
Source: U.S. Census
% Change Median Price
Rank State % change 2008-10
1 North Dakota 10.2%
2 Oklahoma 4.0%
3 Iowa 3.0%
4 Louisiana 2.6%
5 Nebraska 2.2%
2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States
Northeast LA = +3.2%United States = -12.7%
Source: National Association of Realtors
And the lowest ranking states:
Rank State% change in median price
2008-10
46 California -17.8%
47 Idaho -17.9%
48 Florida -26.4%
49 Arizona -28.6%
50 Nevada -31.8%
2008 2009 2010 %chg 2008-10
Baton Rouge $165,000 $163,000 $169,600 +2.8%New Orleans $160,500 $160,100 $159,700 -0.5%Monroe $129,000 $134,000 $135,000 +4.7%Shreveport $138,500 $147,000 $156,600 +13.1%
% Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s:
Source: National Association of Realtors
Home Price less than $200,000 2008 2009 2010Close price $115,000 $118,000 $114,500Price per Sq Foot $71.05 $73.49 $72.11
Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000 2008 2009 2010Close price $252,000 $249,900 $252,000Price per Sq Foot $106.41 $106.33 $107.51
All Existing Homes 2008 2009 2010Close price $128,850 $133,000 $133,000Price per Sq Foot $77.12 $80.81 $79.73
Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise…
Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS
2008 2009 2010
Under $200,000 1262 1198 1161
$200,000 and up 290 317 340
Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010listings 2758 2745 2664 2417 2643sales 1730 1679 1552 1513 1501
Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union
And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0
•Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%)
•Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%)
•U.S (+13.8%)
Source: U.S. Federal Court
Ouachita Parish Foreclosures2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010593 486 601 655 601 650 582
Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):
The Labor Market
Total Covered Employment (Jobs):
Figures as of 2nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.
Construction:
Manufacturing:
Retail Trade:
Finance and Insurance:
Health Care & Social Assistance:
*US data contains both education and health care
Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):
Unemployed Dec-07 Dec-10
Alexandria 2,546 4,720Baton Rouge 13,529 27,103Houma 2,679 5,213Lafayette 3,596 4,656Lake Charles 3,530 6,379Monroe 3,524 6,139New Orleans 17,072 38,136Shreveport 7,799 12,079
Unemployment Rate (%) Dec-07 Dec-10
Alexandria 3.8 6.7Baton Rouge 3.7 7.1Houma 2.6 5.1Lafayette 3.3 5.6Lake Charles 3.8 6.7Monroe 4.4 7.7New Orleans 3.3 7.0
Shreveport 4.3 6.6
Unemployment by MSA:
Source: Laworks.net
US 12/2010=9.1%LA 12/2010=7.2%
Dec-09 R Dec-10 R
Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana 1,890,000 1,899,300Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana 1,518,700 1,534,700
Dec 2007 R Dec 2009 R Dec 2010 R
Mining & Logging 51,600 47,300 52,300 Oil & Gas Extraction 7,900 8,900 8,600 Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext 7,800 8,600 8,000 Support Activities for Mining 39,200 36,400 39,600 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells 9,600 7,300 9,000
Louisiana Employment:
LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2%US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%
Regional Outlook
Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years:
•Manufacturing•Autos•Food processing
•Telecommunications
•Financial Services/Information
5 year estimates of growth (range):
% change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes
The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas
F/T Equivalent Jobs HH Income
Direct Effects 230 $9.2 Million
Indirect Effects 300 $7.5 Million
Total Impact 530 $16.7 Million
Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:
Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA.
100% of Spending
F/T equivalent
Jobs HH IncomeFrom University Spending 5,830 $340 millionFrom Student Spending 2,020 $37 million
Total Impact 7,850 $377 million
5% Cut in SpendingF/T equivalent
Jobs HH Income
-292 -$17.0 million
-101 -$1.85 million
-393 -$18.85 million
And a 5% cut in State funding:
Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents
Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit.
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