2012 advito industry forecast update - feb

8/3/2019 2012 Advito Industry Forecast Update - Feb

1/11

4 v ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq;>4; ky Dapiqo' Df f {ijcqu {bub{pba'

@bk{rd{y ;>4; R~adqb

Edqbjo{y Orqfool ò{ ;>4;Di{ v CoqbfU~oqfijcq og Qbecgofojy ~ozb{ba ky

Mbqcoaofojy

@bk{rd{y ;>4; R~adqb vLby @igaigju Qcb {iul o` dgoqcb{ jfokdf {bebuuiog iu kbeomigj j{bdqb{& òffozigj j{ozigj eogeb{g

dkorq qcb br{o xogb e{iuiu dga iqu im~deq og koqc dapdgeba dga bmb{jigj md{lbqu'

Ig fijcq o` qcb ogjoigj beogomie e{iuiu ig Br{o~b& Dapiqo iu {bareigjiqu igqb{eogqigbgqdf di{`d{b ò{beduq ò{ qciu {bjiog ky ; ~oigqu `{omd ybd{-opb{-ybd{ ige{bdub o` 2 ~b{ebgq aozg qo 5 ~b{ebgq

Ige{bduigj eo{~o{dqb abmdga dga eogqigrba ed~deiqy abefigb ky di{figbu d{b

a{ipigj r~zd{a dahruqmbgqu qo ~{ohbeqba ybd{-opb{-ybd{ di{`d{b ige{bdubuò{ Fdqig Dmb{ied #`{om 1 ~b{ebgq qo : ~b{ebgq ò{ igqb{eogqigbgqdfq{dpbf dga `{om 2 qo 3 ~b{ebgq ò{ {bjiogdf q{dpbf) dga ò{ Duid-^dei e#`{om 2 ~b{ebgq qo 9 ~b{ebgq ò{ {bjiogdf beogomy efduu)'

Zcifb coqbf dpb{djb adify {dqb #DA[) ò{beduqu {bmdig rgecdgjba ò{ Go{qc Dmb{ieddga Br{o~b& Dapiqo cdu {bpiuba iqu ò{beduq ò{ ;>4; r~zd{a ky og dpb{djb 5 ~b{ebgqdjb~oigqu ò{ Fdqig Dmb{ied& qcb Miaafb Bduq dga Duid' Dq qcb eorgq{y fbpbf& K{dxif ziff gozfbda qcb ~del ziqc d ybd{-opb{-ybd{ ige{bdub o` 43 qo ;> ~b{ebgq& òffozba ky Cogj Logj

#42 ~b{ebgq)& Udrai D{dkid #41 ~b{ebgq)& Uigjd~o{b #4> ~b{ebgq)& dga Druq{dfid #3 ~b{ebgq)'


2/11


; v ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq;>4; ky Dapiqo' Df f {ijcqu {bub{pba'

Qcb kbjiggigj o` ;>4; cdu ubbg uomb rgeb{qdigqibu eog {mba8@{dgebu e{baiq {dqigj cdu kbbg aozgj{daba& dga qcb R'L' iu dkorqqo bgqb{ dgoqcb{ {bebuuiog' Og d ~ouiqipb goqb& qcb R'U' beogomy&qcorjc zbdl& ucozu uijgu o` d ufoz krq uqbday {beopb{y'

Cozbpb{& qcb beogomie {bdfiqy o` qcb mogqcu qo eombziff ab~bga fd{jbfy og qzo {bfdqba a{ipb{u8

Coz Br{o~bdg {bjiogdf gdgeidf iguqiqrqiogu ~rq qo rubgbd{fy 2>> kiffiog ig fodgu `{om qcb Br{o~bdg Ebgq{dfKdgl& zciec ubblu qo cbda o`` d e{baiq e{rgec

Qo zcdq bsqbgq d ~ouiqipb orqfool ò{ qcb R'U'beogomy ziff zoo kdel zd{y igpbuqo{u

Qcb Br{o trbuqiogDq qcb qimb o` z{iqigj& jfokdf fbdab{u dga beogomiuqu d{b~d{qiei~dqigj ig qcb Zo{fa Beogomie @o{rm ig Adpou& ziqc gbz

gaigju dga eommbgqu kbigj {bfbduba ky qcb cor{' D eommogqcbmb& cozbpb{& ~{bpdifu8 Qcb Br{o~bdg e{iuiu iu `d{ `{om opb{'

[buqo{igj igpbuqo{u eog abgeb ziff kb qcb mdho{ ecdffbgjb o` ;>4;&deeo{aigj qo qcb Igqb{gdqiogdf Mogbqd{y @rga #IM@)' Mdgy beogomiuqud{jrb qcdq qcb eo{b ~{okfbm iu fbuu aiuei~figb qcdg qcb fdel o` beogomiej{ozqc dga qcb abb~ er{{bgq-deeorgq imkdfdgebu bs~o{qb{u pb{uruim~o{qb{uziqcig qcb br{o xogb' Druqb{iqy qbgau qo k{igj {bebuuiog&goq j{ozqc& dga Br{o~b gbbau j{ozqc qo eo~b ziqc iqu abkq'

@o{ goz& d k{bdlr~ o` qcb Br{oxogb ubbmu fd{jbfy qo cdpb kbbg dpb{qba&qcorjc beogomiuqu cdpb goq eom~fbqbfy aiueorgqba qcb ~ouuikifiqy' Qciu

{bmdigigj rgeb{qdigqy uqbmu mdigfy `{om qcb {bareba JA^ ò{beduqu~rkfiucba ky qcb IM@ ig qcbi{ Hdgrd{yZo{fa Beogomie Orqfool #ZBO)8

Zo{fa8 5'5 ~b{ebgq #aozg 4'; ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu`{om IM@ Hrgb ;>44 ~{ohbeqiogu)

Rgiqba Uqdqbu8 4'3 ~b{ebgq #aozg >'9 ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu)

Br{o d{bd8 ->'2 ~b{ebgq #aozg ;'; ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu)

Br{o~bdg Rgiog8 4'0 ~b{ebgq #aozg ;'; ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu)

Bmb{jigj dga abpbfo~igj eorgq{ibu8 2'1~b{ebgq #aozg 4 ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigq)

Qcb jooa gbzu dkorq >if^b{cd~u qcb ogb goqb o` {bfib` {bfdqbu qo qcb abe{bduba {iul o`{iuigj oif ~{iebu' Ig ;>44 qcb dpb{djb ~{ieb o` oif ~b{ kd{{bf zduRU!4>1';5 deeo{aigj qo qcbZBO & dga qcb IM@ ò{beduqu d a{o~ ig~{ieb ~b{ kd{{bf qo RU!99'>9 ig ;>4; dga RU!92'22 ig ;>45'

Eo{~o{dqb q{dpbf abmdga uqiff cofaigj uqbdayAbu~iqb qcbub eforau& abmdga ò{ kruigbuu q{dpbf cdu {bmdigba {bfdqipbfy{okruq< eogeb{gu qcdq abmdga zorfa `dff fdqb ig ;>44 òffozigj {bfdqipbfyuqbb~ cilbu ig di{`d{bu qc{orjcorq qcb ybd{ zb{b goq ko{gb orq'

Igaiedqiogu ucoz qcdq abmdga ziff eogqigrb qo efimk ig ;>4;' DMo{jdg Uqdgfby ur{pby {bfbduba ig mia-Gopbmkb{ {bpbdfba qcdq

05 ~b{ebgq o` {bu~ogabgqu bs~beq q{dpbf krajbqu qo ige{bdubig ;>4;& zcifb 01 ~b{ebgq bs~beq di{ kooligju qo j{oz'

Qcb q{dgudeqiogdf adqd dgdfyxba ig qciu r~adqb eopb{u qcb ~b{ioa qc{orjcAbebmkb{ ;>44< qcb beogomie adqd eopb{u qcb ~b{ioa qc{orjc Hdgrd{y ;>4;'

@o{ mo{b abqdifba igò{mdqiog og lby q{bgau ig q{dpbf mdgdjbmbgqò{ ;>4;& du zbff du {beommbgadqiogu ò{ q{dpbf kryb{u& ~fbdub{b`b{ kdel qo qcb o{ijigdf ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq & ~rkfiucbaig Ub~q' ;>44 dga dpdifdkfb dqzzz'dapiqo'eom '

Igq{oareqiog


3/11



Dapiqo iu mdigqdigigj iqu o{ijigdffy ò{beduqba jr{bu ò{ Go{qc Dmb{iedg di{`d{bu&zcifb {beojgixigj qcdq q{dgudqfdgqie ~{iebu d{b eomigj ig ufijcqfy kbfoz dpb{djbarb qo ~oelbqu o` ur{~fru ed~deiqy dga fozb{ q{d` e j{ozqc& dga {orqbu qo FdqigDmb{ied d{b eomigj ig ufijcqfy dkopb dpb{djb arb qo cijc abmdga eor~fba ziqcfimiqba ed~deiqy j{ozqc'

Uq{ogj abmdga dga fimiqba gbz ed~deiqy `{om mdigfigb dga foz-eouq ed{{ib{ud{b a{ipigj {bpiuiogu qo ò{beduqu ò{ Fdqig Dmb{ied dga Duid' Fdqig Dmb{iedg `d{bige{bdubu cdpb mopba r~ `{om 1 qo 2 ~b{ebgq qo : qo 3 ~b{ebgq< {bjiogdf beogomy-efduu `d{bu ig Duid d{b dfuo ò{beduq qo ige{bdub 9 ~b{ebgq ybd{ opb{ ybd{ eom~d{baqo qcb bd{fib{ ò{beduq o` 2 ~b{ebgq j{ozqc'

Du eiqba dkopb& ogjoigj eogeb{g ò{ Br{o~bu gdgeidf cbdfqc cdu fba Dapiqo qoucdpb ; ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu `{om iqu o{ijigdf di{`d{b ò{beduq ò{ qcb {bjiog `{om 2~b{ebgq aozg qo 5 ~b{ebgq kduba og òr{qc trd{qb{ ~{ieb q{bgaigj adqd dga fozb{ò{beduq beogomie j{ozqc'

R'U' ed{{ib{u d{b fbdaigj dg igaruq{y ecd{jb qo {buq{ieq ed~deiqy< qcby filbfy ziff`r{qcb{ erq ed~deiqy ig ;>4; òffozigj dg buqimdqba ; ~b{ebgq ybd{-opb{-ybd{abefigb ig qcb fduq trd{qb{ o` ;>44& deeo{aigj qo d fdqb Gopbmkb{ {bubd{ec goqb`{om Mo{jdg Uqdgfby' Qcdq orqfool aiagq deeorgq ò{ Dmb{iedg Di{figbu moqcb{eom~dgy DM[ Eo{~o{dqiogu ~frgjb igqo kdgl{r~qey& zciec oqcb{ dgdfyuqubuqimdqb eorfa {burfq ig d 2 ~b{ebgq qo 4> ~b{ebgq {bareqiog ig Dmb{iedg Di{figbudpdifdkfb ubdq mifbu'

^{io{ qo DM[u figj& Mo{jdg Uqdgfby buqimdqba `rff-ybd{ djj{bjdqb mdigfigbdpdifdkfb ubdq mifbu `{om Dfduld Di{figbu& Dmb{iedg Di{figbu& Abfqd Di{ Figbu&

Rgiqba Di{figbu dga RU Di{zdyu zorfa abefigb >'0 ~b{ebgq ig ;>4;& d`qb{ qciu ybd{u>': ~b{ebgq j{ozqc' Eomkigba& Mo{jdg Uqdgfby iu bs~beqigj d gbq >'1 ~b{ebgqabefigb dmogj mdho{u ò{ `rff-ybd{ ;>4;'

Abu~iqb ubpb{df eoguberqipb mogqcu o` deebfb{dqigj ed~deiqy erqu& Hdgrd{yuecbarfbu ucoz bpbg j{bdqb{ ybd{-opb{-ybd{ abefigbu dq uomb ed{{ib{u qcdg igAbebmkb{& deeo{aigj qo Mo{jdg Uqdgfby {bubd{ec' Qcb dgdfyuqu ~{baieq qcdq ig Hdgrd{y& Abfqd ziff erq ed~deiqy ky dg buqimdqba 3 ~b{ebgq& ~{imd{ify ig qcb MiaafbBduq& D`{ied& Br{o~b dga Ebgq{df Dmb{ied< zcifb Rgiqba Di{figbu ziff erq ed~deiqy ky

2 ~b{ebgq& ~{imd{ify ig Fdqig Dmb{ied& Druq{dfid dga qcb R'U' Qciu {b~o{q zdu kdubaog ~{bpiorufy dggorgeba {orqb ecdgjbu ky qcb di{figbu' Uigeb Abebmkb{ ;>44&mdigfigb di{figbu cdpb eogqigrba qo uedfb kdel ed~deiqy ky {bareigj `{btrbgeibudga a{o~~igj ~oo{ ~b{ò{migj md{lbqu' Bsdm~fbu igefrab Fr`qcdgudu {bareqioguqo Igaid dga Dmb{iedgu qb{migdqiog o` ub{pieb qo Krad~buq dga Cbfuigli du zbff duqcbi{ Gbz Yo{l-Qolyo dga Eciedjo-Abfci {orqbu'

Du d uijg o` qcb rgeb{qdigqy j{i~~igj beogomie md{lbqu& qcb Igqb{gdqiogdf Di{Q{dgu~o{q Duuoeidqiog #IDQD) ò{ qcb {uq qimb iu ~{opiaigj qzo uebgd{iou ò{ iqu

gdgeidf ò{beduq& {bfbduba ig bd{fy Abebmkb{'

Ig iqu ebgq{df ò{beduq& zciec duurmbu {buofrqiog o` qcb J{bbl ab`drfq dga kdel-uqo~ gdgeigj ò{ oqcb{ Br{o~bdg jopb{gmbgqu ~{opiaba ky qcb IM@ dga/o{ qcbBEK& IDQD edffu ò{ dg ige{bdub ig abmdga jfokdffy ig ;>4; o` ;'9 ~b{ebgq& aozg`{om iqu 1'; ~b{ebgq ;>44 ò{beduq dga d uijgi edgq a{o~ `{om ;>4>u 4>'1 ~b{ebgqybd{-og-ybd{ j{ozqc' Fdqig Dmb{ied #3'2 ~b{ebgq) dga qcb Miaafb Bduq #2': ~b{ebgq)ziff {bmdig qcb {bjiogu ziqc cijcbuq abmdga< Go{qc Dmb{ied #;'; ~b{ebgq)& Br{o~b#;'2 ~b{ebgq) dga Duid-^dei e #;'> ~b{ebgq) d{b ò{beduq qo fdj kbciga'

IDQD iu deeom~dgyigj iqu ebgq{df ò{beduq ziqc d kdgligj e{iuiu ò{beduq zciecubbu jfokdf abmdga ig ;>4; a{o~~igj ky 4'5 ~b{ebgq ybd{-og-ybd{ dga Br{o~bdgabmdga qcb cd{abuq ciq ziqc d 5': ~b{ebgq abe{bdub'

Jipbg er{{bgq mde{obeogomie pofdqifiqy& qcb Dapiqo ò{beduq {bmdigu urkhbeq qoecdgjb dga ziff eogqigrb qo kb r~adqba trd{qb{fy' Orq{ijcq {bebuuiog ig mdho{md{lbqu& d urkubtrbgq a{o~ ig eogurmb{ eog abgeb dga d ~oqbgqidf e{baiq e{rgec`{om kdglu rgziffigj qo fbga eorfa fbda qo d uijgi edgq `dff-o`` ig abmdga' I` qcdq

cd~~bgu& di{figbu ziff cdpb d mrec cd{ab{ qimb uruqdigigj ~{ohbeqba `d{b ige{bdubudga di{`d{bu eorfa `dff'

Q{dpbf ~{oj{dm mdgdjb{u ziff gbba qo eogqigrb qo kb miga`rf o` d {dgjb o` `deqo{uqcdq d``beq qcb qoqdf eouq o` di{ q{dpbf& `{om `rbf ur{ecd{jbu dga dgeiffd{y `bbu qoed{a ~dymbgq `bbu& zciec jdigba j{orga fdqb ig ;>44' Bs~beq mo{b ed{{ib{u qoòffoz uriq& dga qcoub zciec cdpb df{bday igq{oareba `bbu qo bsqbga qcbm qo mo{beorgq{ibu' Qcb jooa gbzu iu qcdq eo{~o{dqb efibgqu mdy bued~b qcb `rff im~deq8Ig uomb edubu qcb `bbu d{b goq d~~fiba qo ~{bmirm edkig kooligju dga ig oqcb{uqcb{b d{b uijgu qcdq di{figbu ziff kb ~{b~d{ba qo gbjoqidqb ziqc eo{~o{dqb efibgqu'

Edqbjo{y Orqfool ò{ ;>4;8 Di{


4/11



@ij 4 ;>4; Di{`d{b @o{beduqu ky [bjiogIge{bduigj abmdga& qbm~b{ba ky ucdly beogomieeog abgeb& ziff {burfq ig YOY `d{b cilbu qcdqd{b fbuu a{duqie qcdg ;>44u YOY hrm~u'

Edqbjo{y-U~bei`ie Q{bgau dga ;>4; @o{beduq8 Di{

[^L #[bpbgrb ^duubgjb{ Lifombqb{u) mbdur{bu deqrdf ~duubgjb{ q{d` eDUL #Dpdifdkfb Ubdq Lifombqb{u) mbdur{bu dpdifdkfb ~duubgjb{ ed~deiqy

Uor{eb8 IDQD@o{beduq o` dpb{djb abpbfo~mbgq o` di{`d{bu ruba

ky eo{~o{dqb efibgqu ;>44 djdiguq ;>4> #ig ! RUA o{ BR[)Uor{eb8 Dapiqo

;>4;& Dapiqo ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq R~adqb


5/11



U~oqfijcq og HPu& Mb{jb{u dga Eo{~o{dqb Eogq{deq Qd{jbquDi{figb eoguofiadqiog {buogdqba uq{ogjfy ig ;>44& du dffidgebu jdigbagbz ed{{ib{u< ed{{ib{u dggorgeba gbz hoigq pbgqr{bu< dga hoigq pbgqr{buq{dguiqiogba igaipiardf eo{~o{dqb eogq{dequ qo HP dj{bbmbgqu'

Dapiqo kbfibpbu qcdq zcifb mb{jb{u dga HPu ~{opiab uomb kbgb qu&qcby ed{{y uijgi edgq {iulu ò{ mouq eo{~o{dqb ~{oj{dmu8

Ig opb{fd~ md{lbqu& ed{{ib{ eomkigdqiogu edg {burfqig fbuu eom~bqiqiog& cijcb{ ~rkfiucba ~{iebu& fozb{eo{~o{dqb aiueorgqu dga ~oqbgqidffy fbuu ub{pieb'

Kryb{u cdpb fbuu bsikifiqy qo ubfbeq qcb o~qimdfmis o` ed{{ib{u ò{ qcbi{ di{figb ~{oj{dm'

Qcb mb{jba di{figb ziff cofa mo{b fbpb{djb dga mdy ~ruc ò{cijcb{ qd{jbqu dga qcb fozbuq o` opb{fd~~igj aiueorgqu'

Zcbg iq eombu qo qcb eogq{deq gbjoqidqiog ~{oebuu& kryb{uucorfa kb ~d{qierfd{fy dzd{b o` qcb im~deq o` HPu/mb{jb{u ogqcbi{ eogq{deq qd{jbqu' Cb{bu zcdq yor gbba qo lgoz'

Zcy ao di{figbu ~{opiab eo{~o{dqb aiueorgq ~{oj{dmu?Ig qcb ~duq& di{figbu o``b{ba eo{~o{dqb aiueorgq ~{oj{dmu qo cbf~qcbm zig fre{dqipb eo{~o{dqb kruigbuu #kbedrub eo{~o{dqb q{dpbfb{uqbgaba qo rub cijcb{ `d{bu qcdg fbiur{b q{dpbfb{u)' Qd{jbqu ubq ò{qcb ~{oj{dmu mbdur{ba dff qielbqu ~r{ecduba ky qcb efibgqu'

Cozbpb{& ecdgjigj md{lbq aygdmieu& a{ipbg ky di{figbu djj{buuipb rubo` yibfa mdgdjbmbgq& aiu{r~qba qciu ~d{daijm< eo{~o{dqb dga fbiur{bq{dpbfb{u d{b eom~bqigj ò{ deebuu qo {buq{ieqba cijcfy aiueorgqbaqielbq igpbgqo{y' Dga du eoguofiadqiog qc{orjc mb{jb{u dga hoigqpbgqr{bu {barebu eom~bqiqiog dga bs~dgau gbqzo{l {bdec& di{figbud{b dao~qigj d mo{b djj{buuipb qd{jbq-bgò{ebmbgq d~~{odec'

Goz& qcb ~r{~oub o` eo{~o{dqb aiueorgq ~{oj{dmu ò{ di{figbu iu goq hruqqo zig mo{b eo{~o{dqb kruigbuu& krq qo zig mo{b cijc-yibfa eo{~o{dqb

kruigbuu' Zcifb di{figb aiueorgqu cdpb kbeomb mo{b eom~fbs dgaqd{jbqu cdpb mrfqi~fiba& qd{jbq-ubqqigj uq{dqbjibu cdpb goq lb~q ~deb'

Ig qcbo{y& efibgqu {bebipb ~{b`b{bgqidf aiueorgqu ig bsecdgjb ò{ ~{bmirmucd{b' Qcb HP/mb{jb{ {bdfiqy edg kb pb{y ai``b{bgq' Qcb qd{jbq d~~{odecab~bgau og deebuu qo eom~bqiqipbfy ~{ieba igpbgqo{y' Krq qcb rub o` yibfamdgdjbmbgq qbecgitrbu fimiqu qcb dpdifdkifiqy o` foz-~{ieba igpbgqo{y qoeo{~o{dqb kryb{u' Dga du {bareba dpdifdkifiqy ~rucbu ~r{ecdub ~{iebu cijcb{&iq ige{bdubu qcb filbficooa qcdq d gog-~{b`b{{ba ed{{ib{ ziff cdpb qcb fozbuqdpdifdkfb ~{ieb& bpbg ziqcorq d eo{~o{dqb aiueorgq' Qciu ~rqu daaiqiogdf ~{buur{bog eogq{deq ~b{ò{mdgeb dga kryb{u mdy ga qcbmubfpbu zogab{igj8

Coz edg I ciq my ucd{b qd{jbqu i` qcb di{figb {b rubuqo ubff qo mb dq d eom~bqiqipb ~{ieb?

I` qcb di{figb zorfa {dqcb{ ubff qo dgoqcb{ eruqomb{& zcy ucorfa qcby

cofa mb deeorgqdkfb ò{ goq kryigj zcdq qcby {b`rub qo ubff mb?

Edqbjo{y Orqfool ò{ ;>4;8 Di{

Dapiqo {beommbgau qcdq kryb{u8 Mbdur{b qcb kruigbuu qcb di{figb zdgqu' I` qcb di{figbu jodf iu mo{b cijc-yibfa

kruigbuu& qd{jbqu ucorfa mbdur{b cijc-yibfa kruigbuugoq dff kruigbuu' Buqdkfiuc mo{b {bdfiuqie ed{{ib{ bs~beqdqiogu' Abeiab og dg d~~{o~{idqb aiueorgq uq{dqbjy ig figb ziqc

~ofiey okhbeqipbu dga eom~dgy ~{o fb8o Mdsimixb eopb{djb = mo{b ed{{ib{u , fozb{ aiueorgquo Mdsimixb aiueorgq = `bzb{ ed{{ib{u , cd{ab{ ecoiebu

Abqb{migb coz mdgy o` qcb mdho{ ed{{ib{ j{or~u/HPu qcby edg zo{l ziqc8o Ruigj dff qc{bb #Uqd{ Dffidgeb& Uly Qbdm& ogbzo{fa) b` beqipbfy {btri{bu d

uijgi edgq pofrmb o` cijc yibfa kruigbuu ig eom~bqiqipb md{lbqu'o Qcb pduq mdho{iqy o` eo{~o{dqb kryb{u ziff gbba qo ecooub ogb o{ qzo'

@oeru bgb{jibu og fd{jb& cijcfy eom~bqiqipb md{lbqu ziqc cijc-yibfa q{d` e'o Mogo~ofy/aomigdgq md{lbqu qy~iedffy o` b{ umdff aiueorgqu dga ucorfa goq a{ipb kryb{u

ecoieb o` ed{{ib{u' Rub ~ofiey/q{dpbfb{ kbcdpio{ qo migimixb eouqu ig qcbub md{lbqu'

o Qcb bseb~qiog cb{b iu ig md{lbqu zcb{b kryb{u cdpbcbdpy pofrmbd foq o` d fiqqfb daau r~'


6/11



Eogqigrigj abmdga {beopb{y mdab coqbfu krffiuc dkorq qcbi{ eo{~o{dqb {dqbgbjoqidqiog ~{ou~bequ& dga mdgy o~bgba qcbi{ ;>4; {btrbuq ò{ ~{o~oudfkiaaigj ky troqigj uijgi edgqfy cijcb{ {dqbu' Dapiqo dgdfyuiu ucozu qcdq qciudjj{buuipb ~ouiqiogigj cdu ko{gb {bfdqipbfy ~oo{ `{riq ig Br{o~b& qcdglu qo

{m gbjoqidqiogu ky q{dpbf mdgdjb{u dga d ufrjjiuc beogomy< cozbpb{& uombFdqig Dmb{iedg& Miaafb Bduqb{g dga Duid/^dei e md{lbqu d{b bs~b{ibgeigjuijgi edgq {dqb ige{bdubu'

Dapiqo cdu ige{bduba iqu dpb{djb adify {dqb #DA[) ò{beduq ò{ Fdqig Dmb{iedkduba og bsq{bmbfy uq{ogj abmdga ig K{dxif dga cijcb{ eo{~o{dqb q{dpbf ig

qcb mdho{ md{lbqu ig qcb {bjiog' Mouq o` abb~ Uorqc Dmb{ied iu goz bs~beqbaqo ubb aorkfb-aijiq {dqb ige{bdubu& ziqc Udo ^drfo dga [io ab Hdgbi{o ucozigjybd{-opb{-ybd{ ige{bdubu o` opb{ ;> ~b{ebgq'

Ig qcb Miaafb Bduq mouq md{lbqu cdpb {bmdigba dq qcb o{ijigdf DA[ ò{beduqfbpbfu& igefraigj qcb RDB' Cozbpb{& Iu{dbf dga Udrai D{dkid cdpb kbbgdahruqba r~zd{a' Qcbub ecdgjbu cdpb {burfqba ig dg opb{dff ige{bdub qo qcbDA[ ò{beduq ò{ qcb {bjiog& goz md{lba qo eomb ig kbqzbbg : ~b{ebgq dga 42~b{ebgq dga d{b arb qo abmdga orquq{i~~igj ed~deiqy'

Uq{ogj abmdga ~fdyu d {ofb du zbff ig Dapiqou dahruqmbgq o` iqu {bjiogdf DA[ò{beduq ò{ Duid& zciec cdu mopba r~zd{a `{om d {dgjb o` 0 ~b{ebgq qo :

~b{ebgq qo d {dgjb o` 3 ~b{ebgq qo 4> ~b{ebgq' Abmdga iu ~d{qierfd{fy {okruq igUigjd~o{b& Druq{dfid dga Cogj Logj' Ig eogq{duq& ige{bduba ed~deiqy ig Igaidcdu ~rucba ò{beduqba DA[ abpbfo~mbgq aozg ky ; ~b{ebgqdjb ~oigqu' Qcbò{beduq ò{ Ecigd {bmdigu rgecdgjba'

Edqbjo{y Orqfool ò{ ;>4;8 Coqbf


@ij ; ;>4; Coqbf Dpb{djb Adify [dqb #DA[) ^{baieqiogu ky [bjiogIg ;>4;& DA[ ziff j{oz jbgqfy ig qcb mdho{ {bjiogu& krq mo{burkuqdgqidffy ig qcb abpbfo~igj {bjiogu'@ijr{bu {b~{bubgq YOY ecdgjbu kduba og koolba DA[


7/11


: v ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq;>4; ky Dapiqo' Df f {ijcqu {bub{pba'


@ij 5 ;>4; Coqbf Dpb{djb Adify [dqb #DA[) ^{baieqiogu ky Lby Md{lbqEo{~o{dqb q{dpbf kryb{u ziff uq{rjjfb qo cofa aozg {dqb ige{bdubu ig ;>4;&ziqc Fdqig Dmb{ied ucozigj qcb cijcbuq YOY hrm~u'

Edqbjo{y Orqfool `o{ ;>4;8 Coqbf


8/11



U~oqfijcq og Qbecgofojyôzb{ba ky Qgoox

Joojfb& di{`d{b ubd{ec& d ziab{ oeru og q{dpbf& dga kbyoga Lbpig Mdy& baiqo{ dga eo-òrgab{& Qgoox

Joojfb cdu dfzdyu kbbg d ~fdyb{ ig q{dpbf' Rgqif {bebgqfy& qciu zdu kyqdligj mogby `{om eom~dgibu ò{ kryigj lbyzo{au ig ubd{ec' Iq zdudg ig rbgqidf uqd{qigj ~oigq qo gaigj q{dpbf& d eogariq qo ~{oareq dgaeogqbgq' Zcifb qcb eom~dgy efdimba iq zorfa goq jbq igqo q{dpbf&mouq ~{baieqba qcdq cdpigj d fd{jb{ {ofb zorfa kb qoo bgqieigj'

Joojfb gdffy dggorgeba iqu igqbgqiog qo kry IQD Uo`qzd{bò{ RU!:>> miffiog ig ;>4>' D`qb{ d~~{opdf ky R'U' {bjrfdqo{u&qcb igaruq{y zdiqba ò{ zcdq zorfa bmb{jb'

@duq ò{zd{a d ybd{& dga Joojfb gdffy rgpbifba @fijcq Ubd{ec' Qcbgbjdqipb du~bequ o` qcb ~{oareq8 fimiqba eiqibu dga di{figbu eopb{ba&dpdifdkfb ogfy qo RU rub{u' Cozbpb{& {burfqu zb{b {bqr{gba pb{ytrielfybsq{bmbfy `duq& ig `deq' Qcb eogq{opb{uy& cozbpb{& zdu arb qoogfigb q{dpbf djbgeibu kbigj bsefraba& dg omiuuiog Joojfb bs~fdigbadu d eommiqmbgq qo cogo{ aiuq{ikrqiog abeiuiogu o` di{figbu'

Uis zbblu fdqb{& dau qo ubd{ec {burfqu og ogfigb q{dpbf djbgeibu #OQDu)dga mbqdubd{ec bgjigbu d~~bd{ba' Joojfb ziff daa di{figbu dgaeiqibu ig arb eor{ubkrq zcdq cd~~bgu gbsq dga coz aobu iq d``beqqcb ziab{ igaruq{y? Joojfb aia goq u~bga !:>> miffiog og d q{dpbfqbecgofojy eom~dgy qo e{bdqb dg dpb{djb mbqdubd{ec bgjigb'

@fijcq Ubd{ec ziff jo jfokdf& decibpba ky ai{beq eoggbeqiogu ziqcdi{figbu& dfogjuiab ruigj adqd ~{opiab{u& mbdgigj dgyqcigj `{om

mbqdubd{ec bgjigbu qo jfokdf aiuq{ikrqiog uyuqbmu' Ig deeommoadqiog&Joojfb cdu kbbg bs~b{imbgqigj ziqc Coqbf @igab{ dga dfuo {oom{dqbu og Joojfb Md~u' Qcb Joojfb Md~u ~{ieigj qbuq iu dapb{qiub{-fba& uo qcb Coqbf @igab{ qoof iu qcb mo{b igqb{buqigj o` qcb qzo& cdpigjai{beq eoggbeqiogu igqo coqbf ecdigu dga ~{oareq djj{bjdqo{u'

Coqbf @igab{ iu dfuo uedfigj trielfy& fdrgecigj mouq {bebgqfy ig Br{o~bar{igj qcb drqrmg o` ;>44' Ed{ ci{b iu d filbfy gbsq eogqbgab{ ig qcb~{oareq {dgjb dq uomb ~oigqgo ~{oareq d~~bd{u qo kb o`` qcb qdkfb'

[rkd& d q{dpbf eogqbgq zbkuiqb& zdu ~r{ecduba ky Joojfb dcbda o` qcbIQD abdf& dga ò{joqqbg dkorq ig qcb goiub o` qcb kijjb{ abdf' Joojfbaiagq kry qcb uiqb ò{ qcb eogqbgq #go gbba ò{ iq)& krq zcdq [rkd cdazdu dg igqb{buqigj o~bgigj igqo qcb abuqigdqiog u~deb& ~{imd{ify ig qcbjriub o` mbqdubd{ec qbecgofojy ò{ qcigju-qo-ao' Daa pdedqiog {bgqdfudga ~deldjb cofiadyu qo qcb mis dga Joojfb cdu triqb d q{dpbf ub{pieb'

Qcb im~deq og fbiur{b eogurmb{u iu okpioru& krq zcdq dkorq eo{~o{dqbq{dpbf? Q{dpbf mdgdjb{u ziff go aorkq kb bfaigj trb{ibu dkorq`d{bu& {oomu& {orqbu dga ~{iebu `{om efibgqu d{mba ziqc qcbi{ ozgigò{mdqiog& dg igbpiqdkifiqy jipbg qcb ig rbgeb Joojfb zibfau igubd{ec' Qciu iabd iu qbgroru& ai` erfq qo mbdur{b' Qcb ziab{ im~deq

ziff mouq filbfy kb `bfq ig qzo d{bdu8 aiuq{ikrqiog dga mokifb'

I` @fijcq Ubd{ec jdigu q{deqiog du d aiuq{ikrqiog ecdggbf ò{ qcbdi{figbu igpofpba& coz aobu iqu b` eibgey d``beq oqcb{u? Ziffdi{figbu uqd{q ~rucigj kbqqb{ `d{bu qc{orjc Joojfb i` qdlb-r~iu jooa& fbdpigj oqcb{ ecdggbfu qo ~iel r~ qcb ~ibebu?

Mokifb& zcb{b qcb kruigbuu q{dpbfb{ iu a{ipigj qcb dao~qiog o` q{dpbf-{bfdqba ub{piebu& ziff kb lby' Joojfbu uriqb o` ub{piebu ziff bga r~ ig

Qcb ;>4; Q{dpbf Qbecgofojy Q{bgau eogqbgq iu ~{opiaba ky Qgoox'Dgy pibzu o{ o~igiogu bs~{buuba d{b uofbfy qcoub o` Qgoox dgaao goq gbebuud{ify {b beq qcoub o` biqcb{ Dapiqo o{ KEA Q{dpbf'


9/11



mokifb-o~qimixba ò{mdqu& jipigj q{dpbfb{u dg iguqdgq o~~o{qrgiqy qoqd~ igqo qoofu o{aigd{ify ~{opiaba ky oqcb{u' Igqb{buqigjfy& q{dpbfb{uao goq djogixb opb{ qcb trbuqiog d{orga Joojfbu bgq{y igqo q{dpbfqcdq aiuqr{ku qcb igaruq{y8 Ziff iq uqdy ig ubd{ec o{ bsqbga igqokooligju? Zcbg dulba& Joojfb jipbu d {m go qo kooligju'

Zcy qciu ~ouiqiog& zcbg qcb korgqy qo kb cda `{om eommiuuiogu iu~oqbgqidffy j{bdqb{ qcdg qcb ufimmb{ ~ieligju `{om {b`b{{dfu?

@i{uqfy& Joojfb cdu iqu Ecbelorq ub{pieb& krq qciu zorfa gbbabgcdgebmbgqu ò{ iq qo kbeomb d ab `deqo q{dpbf kooligj bgjigb'

Iq zorfa dfuo kb ò{eba qo igefrab ~{oqbeqiog ~ofieibu ò{igur{dgeb& kogaigj uecbmbu ò{ {b~dq{idqiog ig qcb bpbgq oùr~~fib{ `difr{b dga d eom~fiedqba d{{dy o` qds uecbmbu'

Fduqfy& eruqomb{ ub{piebJoojfb zorfa {btri{b edff ebgqb{u&dkifiqy qo mdgdjb kooligju& bqe'& dff qcb mbuuy qcigju qcdq OQDucdpb ig qcbi{ AGD& krq qbecgofojy eom~dgibu ao goq'

Qciu iu qcb qcbo{y' Joojfb cdu ucozg iq ziff ecdgjb iqu miga'Kooligj& cozbpb{& dq qciu uqdjb iu d uqb~ qoo `d{'

U~oqfijcq og Qbecgofojy


10/11


4> v ;>4; Igaruq{y @o{beduq;>4; ky Dapiqo' Df f {ijcqu {bub{pba'

Iq cdu kbbg duurmba #du zo{ligj cy~oqcbubu {dqcb{ qcdg ~{baieqiogu) qcdq8

Qcb ~{ieb o` oif ~b{ kd{{bf ziff kb ziqcig qcb {dgjb o RU!9: dga RU!4>:

opb{ d qc{bb mogqc ~b{ioa ig ;>4;< Zo{fa beogomie orq~rq ziff bs~dga ky dkorq 5'5 ~b{ebgq ig ;>4;& ziqc d

ufrjjiuc uqd{q òffozba ky ufijcqfy deebfb{dqigj j{ozqc ig qcb ubeoga cdfò` qcb ybd{< j{ozqc ziff eogqigrb ig ;>45& ziqc zo{fa beogomie orq~rq{iuigj kbqzbbg >'; dga >'0 ~b{ebgq ybd{ opb{ ybd{'

Im~deq o` qcb fogj-qb{m uq{reqr{df {bareqiog o` q{dpbf igqbguiqy ò{ mouqubeqo{u ziff kb iguijgi edgq ig ;>4; #i'b'& o{jdgixdqiogu ziff goq `r{qcb{{bareb qcbi{ grmkb{ o` q{i~u ig {bfdqiog qo qcbi{ kruigbuu pofrmb)'

K{odab{ igaruq{y abpbfo~mbgqu dga q{bgau cdpb kbbg iabgqi ba kduba ogK{odab{ igaruq{y abpbfo~mbgqu dga q{bgau cdpb kbbg iabgqi ba kduba ogDapiqo {bubd{ec qc{orjcorq ;>44 dga dg dgdfyuiu o` ig-ab~qc igqb{pibzu o`

bs~b{qu ig igqb{gdqiogdf eo{~o{dqb q{dpbf dga mbbqigju mdgdjbmbgq ziqcdaaiqiogdf iguijcq ky qcb {bu~beqipb Dapiqo ~{deqieb fbdab{u'

Qcb edqbjo{y-u~bei e ~{baieqiogu d{b kduba og dg Dapiqo dgdfyuiu o`djj{bjdqba q{dgudeqiog adqd o` KEA Q{dpbfu eo{~o{dqb efibgqu zo{faziab'

Qcb dgdfyuiu dga ò{beduq d{b kduba og aygdmie kdulbqu ruigj qcb deqrdfgrmkb{ o` {oom gijcqu& ed{ {bgqdf kooligju dga di{ ubjmbgqu ò{ qcb ~b{ioa igtrbuqiog qo {b beq ~oqbgqidf uci`qu ig q{dpbf ~dqqb{g dga kooligj kbcdpio{' Qcbfbpbf o` djj{bjdqiog ruba ò{ qcb q{bga dgdfyuiu zdu abqb{migba kduba og qcbpdfiaiqy o` qcb adqd ~oof ig trbuqiog ziqc d migimrm qc{bucofa ò{ ybd{-qo-adqb dga ciuqo{iedf grmkb{ o` q{dgudeqiog ò{ bdec rgiq'

Dpb{djbu ~b{ mogqc d{b zbijcqba ky edqbjo{y q{dgudeqiogu ò{ bdec o` qcbrgiq ig trbuqiogqcb bseb~qiog iu qcb d{bd/{bjiog dpb{djb ò{ coqbf zciec iud uim~fb dpb{djb de{ouu dff eorgq{ibu ig qcdq d{bd/ {bjiog' Trd{qb{fy dpb{djbud{b uim~fb dpb{djbu o` mogqcu ig qcb trd{qb{' Rgfbuu uqdqba ai``b{bgqfy&~{ieb abpbfo~mbgqu d{b kduba og foedf er{{bgeibu dga d{b qcb{bò{b urkhbeqqo ò{bijg bsecdgjb reqrdqiogu' Foedf er{{bgey q{dgudeqiog adqd cdu kbbggo{mdfixba igqo fbdaigj zo{fa er{{bgeibu ruigj qcb adify dpb{djb eogpb{uiog{dqb og qcb adqb o` q{dpbf #ò{ di{ dga {bgqdf ed{) o{ ~fdggba ecbelorq adqb #ò{coqbf)'

Coqbf md{lbq qib{u duuijgmbgqu d{b òffozigj Dapiqou ~{o~{ibqd{yefduui edqiog uecbmb' Di{ edkig efduubu d{b kduba og qcb Dapiqo mduqb{ qdkfbo` kooligj efduubu ò{ di{figbu'

Ig daaiqiog qo qcb KEA Q{dpbf efibgq adqd qcb òffozigj uor{ebu cdpb kbbg

ruba du ~d{dmbqb{ ig~rq qo qcb q{bga dgdfyuiu dga ò{beduqigj8 Igqb{gdqiogdf Di{ Q{dgu~o{q Duuoeidqiog #IDQD) ò{ di{figb ed~deiqy dga

q{d` e> ~bo~fb dga o~b{dqbu ig mo{b qcdg 9>eorgq{ibu ziqc qoqdf udfbu& igefraigj {dgeciuigj& o RU!;>'5 kiffiog' @o{ mo{b ig o{mdqiog& piuiq zzz'kea-gp'eom'

@o{ mo{b igò{mdqiog ~fbdub eogqdeq

Uis Eogeor{ub ^d{lzdy GB&Uriqb ;1>>&Dqfdgqd& JD 5>5;3

zzz'dapiqo'eomdapiebNdapiqo'eom

2012 advito industry forecast update - feb

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