2012 orange county development briefing

Welcome to the

2012 Orange CountyDevelopment Briefing

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Justin Purdy

Orange County Development Briefing

The Residential Real Estate Market

October 11, 2012Mark Zimmerman

All data provided by Triangle Multiple Listing Service and 10K Research and Marketing

Where We’ve Been

• 2010 and before– Pessimism– No end in sight

• 2011– Pessimism Continued– But some “Green Shoots”• 2nd Half better – relative to YA

2012

FOUR

Where We Are - 2012

2012 – Road to Recovery

• Sales– Buyers have returned

• Days on Market– Holding steady

• Inventory– Less competition, less choice

• Month’s Supply– Back to an even playing field


• Sales – YTD, August, 2012– Triangle• +18.4%

– Orange County• +11.2%

– Chapel Hill/Carrboro• +16.4%

– Hillsborough• +10.5%


• Days on Market – YTD, August, 2012– Triangle• 121 Days (126 YA -4.0%)

– Orange County• 129 Days (124 YA +4.3%)

– Chapel Hill/Carrboro• 132 Days (126 YA +4.6%)

– Hillsborough• 110 Days (125 YA -12.2%)


• Inventory – YTD, August, 2012– Triangle• -25.3%

– Orange County• -25.6%

– Chapel Hill/Carrboro• -25.5%

– Hillsborough• -12.1%


• Month’s Supply – YTD, August, 2012– Triangle• 7.0 (10.9 -35.8%)

– Orange County• 7.8 (11.3 YA -31.3%)

– Chapel Hill/Carrboro• 7.6 (11.4 -33.0%)

– Hillsborough• 9.5 (11.9 YA -20.8%)

Orange County – Aug, 2012Price Listings % Chg vs

YAYTD Sales % Chg vs

YAMonth Supply

Ave DOM

0-149 80 -5% 92 -5.2% 7 141

150-199 41 -43% 81 +15.7% 4 140

200-299 127 -14% 147 0.0% 7 127

300-399 95 -2% 127 -2.3% 6 115

400-599 102 -28% 152 +11.8% 5 116

600-799 50 -26% 66 +37.5% 6 161

800+ 66 -10% 33 -8.3% 16 152

Total Detached 561 -18% 698 +5.1% 6

Condo 103 -21% 99 +39.4% 8 235

Townhouse 75 -11% 118 +24.4% 5 116

Total 739 -21% 915 +10.2% 6 145

New Construction – 2nd Qtr, 2012Orange County

Price Listings % Chg v YA YTD Sales % Chg v YA Supply

0-149 1 -50% 0 -100% n/a

150-199 4 -33% 3 -77% 8

200-299 10 0% 2 0% 30

300-399 7 -61% 15 +15% 3

400-599 17 -26% 19 +138% 5

600-799 7 +17% 5 +67% 8

800+ 8 -20% 0 -100% n/a

Total Detached 54 -21.7% 44 +2.3%

Condo 35 -33% 7 +133% 30

Townhouse 22 +120% 18 -31% 7

Total 111 -19% 69 -4% 10

Not There Yet – Annual Sales

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Chapel Hill - Carrboro

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*0

200400600800

100012001400160018002000

Orange County

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*0

500010000150002000025000300003500040000

Triangle

*12 month thru 10/10/2012

What Could Go Wrong?

• Economic downturn– Slow drift into recession– European crisis– Fiscal Cliff

• Self Inflicted Wounds– Taxation Reform • NC Tax on Services• Federal Loss of Mortgage Deduction

Summary – Road to Recovery

• Put the housing recession behind us• 2012– Strong, consistent growth– Buyers Back– Inventory/Supply under control

• Future - Not there yet– Long way to go to return to pre-recession sales– Some potential bumps in the road ahead

Commercial Real Estate

Michael Clayton, Managing Director, BIC

MARKET TRENDS FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

IN ORANGE COUNTY, NC

Overview of:

• 2011 4TH QUARTER COMPARISON;• COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CATEGORIES, I.E.

OFFICE, RETAIL, INDUSTRIAL, AND FLEX SPACE;• AVAILABILITY OF SQUARE FOOTAGE BY

CATEGORY;• VACANCY RATES AND PRICING BY CATEGORY;• TRENDS IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

VACANCY, PRICING, AND CONCESSIONS

2011 4th Quarter Review Source: The KARNES Report

Office

Retail

Industrial

Market Overview 2nd Quarter 2012

Sources: The KARNES Report, Loopnet

Office

Vilcom Campus

Office – Orange County

Office – Chapel Hill

Retail

East 54

Retail – Chapel Hill

Retail - Hillsborough

Retail – Chapel Hill

Retail - Hillsborough

Industrial/Flex Space

Hillsborough Business Center

Industrial – Orange County

Orange County – still healthy, still going

strong

ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT

Craig Benedict

BALANCING GROWTH / SUPPORTING PUBLIC SERVICES

51

STRATEGIC AND FOCUSED ECONOMIC GROWTH; RURAL AND AGRICULTURAL PRESERVATION

OVERVIEW MAP

53

AREA B

55

ORANGE COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Steve Brantley

Members of Economic Development Board

• Delores Bailey, EMPOWERment, Inc.• D.R. Bryan, Bryan Properties, Inc. • Lori Eichel, Harrington Bank • Jim Kitchen, JimKitchen.org• Karen McAdams, McAdams Farm• Eric Pate, GE• Mark O’Neal, Pickett-Sprouse Real Estate• Mark Sherburne, Aloft Hotel• Nicholas Thomas, FilmLab LLC• Tom Underwood, PHE, Inc.

MAIN STREET PROPERTIESPatti Benedict

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINABruce Runberg

Orange CountyDevelopment Briefing

October 11, 2012

Carolina North

Carolina North

Main Campus

Mason Farm

Research and Innovation Campus

Corporate Partnerships

Faculty/Employee/Grad Housing

Service/Retail/Civic

Outreach

Recreation

Research

Flagship Research University

Hospitals/Health Care Centers

Student Life and Housing

Intercollegiate Athletics

Physical Context

Caudill LabsPhotos by Dan Sears

Purpose

Carolina North will be a mixed-use academic campus that:

• Houses key academic programs;

• Attracts talent to the University;

• Enhances the University’s delivery of world-class research, teaching, outreach, and service for the people of North Carolina;

• Contributes to economic development, locally and beyond; and

• Delivers a planned, sustainable development that can adapt the latest technologies.

Carolina NorthDevelopment Agreement

• Agreement between University and Town of Chapel Hill: a contract that defines certain– Rights– Obligations

• Authorizes development of up to 3 million ft2 over 20 years on a defined 133 acres of the Carolina North property

• Defines 228 acre development area over 50 years at Carolina North • Establishes 311 acres for conservation• Establishes development standards for transportation and parking, stormwater,

energy and water, noise, and lighting• University to submit an Annual Report each year

For each party

Projected Development: First 800,000 square feet

Research Building One 225,000 sfSmall Central Utility Plant 5,000 sfLaw School 250,000 sfResearch Building Two 120,000 sfHousing 200,000 sf

6

Collaborative Science Building & Infrastructure Phase 1/Central Utility Plant

Infrastructure………………………………. Design: June 2011 – May 2013 Construction: June 2013 – April 2014

Central Utility Plant……………………….. Design: July 2012 – Aug. 2013 Construction: Sept. 2013 – Jan. 2015

Collaborative Science Building……………. Design: March 2012 – Nov. 2013 Construction: Dec. 2013 – Nov. 2015

WILLIAM CHRISTIAN & ASSOCIATESBill Christian

Charterwood

Current Plan

Charterwood

THE DESIGN RESPONSEJack Smyre

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINAKarol Kain Gray

123 West Franklin

Building B150,000 SF Multi Family35,000 SF Retail8,000 Commercial

Building A120,000 SF Residential30,000 SF Retail

Phase 1 - Building C160,000 SF Office30,000 SF Residential

123 West Franklin

RAM REALTYJon Keener

Update For Chapel Hill Carrboro Chamber of Commerce’s


October 11th, 2012

Who we Are & Where we have Been

• Scope: 140 new homes, 26,000 SF of 1st Class Retail, 2 levels of Parking

• Vision: Unify East & West Franklin St. and act as a catalyst for economic revitalization Downtown by following Downtown Revitalization Plan

• Timeline: Begun Planning in 2005, Selected as Developer in 2006, Weathered economic Crisis & Broke Ground in January 2011

Project Update

• Home Sales: – 93 of 140 residences sold, including 18 for the

Community Home Trust– Starting delivery of residences early in 2013

• Retail Leasing:– 4 Tenants Committed– Retail openings also targeted for early 2013

• Parking:– 337 space underground parking will open first

Why we are excited to be in Orange County

• Chapel Hill & Orange County Development is resurgent

• 123 West Franklin is on its way!• Between 123 and 140 West Franklin, more

than $200 million of fresh investment at this intersection alone.

123 West

Franklin

Ram Realty Services dedication to NC

• Own, Redeveloping, and purchasing existing and new properties across the Triangle

• Own and Redeveloping properties throughout the Charlotte Region

• 140 West Franklin and our Chapel Hill partnerships are the flagship developments for our efforts throughout the State

UNC HEALTH CARE Ray Lafrenaye


UNC Hospitals Orange County Initiatives

October 11, 2012

Imaging and Spine CenterLocation: Finley Golf Course Road

Building Size: 31,000 sq.ft.

Occupant: Imaging, Pain Management, Physical Therapy

Eastowne Development

1 2

4

3

7

65

2

6

5

Location: 100-700 Eastowne Drive (15-501 and I-40)

Land: 47.4 Acres

Building Size: 7 Buildings, 150,000 sq.ft.

Occupant: Administrative

Comprehensive Rehabilitation & Therapy Location: 1807 Fordham Boulevard (15-501) and Sage Road

Size: 25,266 sq.ft.

Tenant: Physical and Occupational Therapy, Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation

Burn Reconstruction & Aesthetic CenterLocation: 151 Old University Station Road

Size: 7,837 sq.ft.

Tenant: Burn Reconstruction and Aesthetic Procedures

UCH Hospitals - Hillsborough CampusLocation: Waterstone Drive

Size: 270,000 sq.ft.

Occupant: Hospital & Medical Office Building (MOB) Clinics

MOB

Urgent Care

Lab/Radiology

Oncology Infusion

Dermatology

GYN

Uro/GYN

GI

Procedures

BRYAN PROPERTIESSarah O’Brien

Southern Village and Apartments

Bryan Properties

Site Location

View from 15-501

Overview• Economic Impact for Community

$20 million project$309,058 property tax revenues at current rates$177,000 occupancy tax revenues

• Support for Village Center

Third anchor for the community with Weaver Street Market and The LuminaSupports our restaurants and shops

TRIANGLE TRANSITDamien Graham

Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan

Damien GrahamTriangle Transit

www.OurTransitFuture.com

So what’s the plan?The plans has three stages of investment

• Stage #1 – New and enhanced bus service buses can be ordered and operating within five years after a positive vote

• Stage #2 Amtrak Rail station in Hillsborough sales tax will provide local revenue for future matching funds to build an

Amtrak station

• Stage #3 Light Rail connection from UNC to Durham planning will continue to construct a high frequency rail connection

between Chapel Hill and Duke and downtown Durham

Step #1 Bus Service Improvements• Significant new funding available for additional bus service

available within the first five years.• Improve connectivity locally, within Orange County and Regionally• Increase frequency of peak hour service• Improve weekend service, night service (off peak)• Service enhancements to rural transit service in unincorporated

Orange County• Bus Service amenities such as better signage, shelters, and park ’n

ride lots

STEP #2

HILLSBOROUGH AMTRAK STATION

AMTRAK SERVICE INCLUDES CONNECTIONS TO CHARLOTTE, RALEIGH, RICHMOND, WASHINGTON DC, AND NEW YORK

STEP #2 BSTUDY BEGINS ON IMPROVED BUS LANES

STEP #3LIGHT RAIL – UNC TO DOWNTOWN DURHAM

What will investment in transit mean for Orange County?

A Strong Economic Future

Maintain Our Quality of Life

A Healthier Environment

• Transit Oriented Development around station locations• More dense development provides greater opportunity to preserve Open Space• Cleaner, healthier options to travel throughout the county

How are we going to pay for the plan?

The Plan will be financed by a balance of revenue options:▫½ cent sales tax (depending upon referendum)▫ Increase in vehicle registration fee▫ State and Federal Funding

• Basically, an additional 5 cents on a $10 purchase buys over $1 billion in transit investment for the next 25 years.

• Our local investment of $268 million by 2035 could leverage as much as $661 million in state and federal matching funding

NC Law requires - All revenue from ½ cent sales tax and vehicle registration fee must be dedicated to the transit elements specified in Orange Bus and Rail Investment Plan

125125

• The One-half Cent Transit Sales Tax does not apply to the following…

• Food• Medicine• Utilities• Housing• Gasoline

Exceptions from the tax

“. . . the more the base of the sales tax excludes necessities (such as food and prescription drugs) and includes luxury or nonessential goods and services, the less regressive the tax is likely to be”.Robert D. Lee, Jr., Ronald W. Johnson and Phillip G. Joyce (2008). Public Budgeting Systems, 8th Edition (Boston: Jones Bartlett).

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Silver Sponsor

Bronze Sponsors

2012 Community Champions

2012 Platinum Sponsors

2012 Gold Sponsors

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