2012 wildfire season outlook
DESCRIPTION
2012 Wildfire Season Outlook. “Recent” Wildfire History. Winter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire Missionary Ridge Fire Big Fish Numerous other fires. 2001-02 Versus 2011-12 SNOTEL Annual Precip . % as of 5-10-12. 01-02 11-12 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2012 Wildfire Season Outlook
“Recent” Wildfire HistoryWinter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY
followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado
Hayman Fire Coal Seam FireMissionary Ridge FireBig FishNumerous other fires
2001-02 Versus 2011-12SNOTEL Annual Precip. % as of 5-
10-12 01-02
11-12Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 %Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 %Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73 %Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002
Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
SNOTEL Current S.W.E.
Precipitation % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/1/12
Based on all precipitation reporting sites
Soil Moisture % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/6/12
Historical ENSO Influence ?Winter 2001-2002 - NeutralWinter 2011-2012 - La Nina
2nd consecutive La Nina winter
Historical ENSO Influence ?Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina wintersIn western Colorado...
9 events - 2nd year drier than first
2 events - 2nd year wetter than first
(early 1950s & mid 1970s)Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist
Drought Assessment 5/8/12
Drought Assessment – 5/8/12
May 2012 Climate Outlook
Precipitation
Temperatures
Early Summer 2012
Precipitation
Temperatures
Late Summer-Early Fall 2012
Monsoon Season
Precipitation
Temperatures
Winter 2012-2013 ???
“…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“
Climate Prediction Center 5-3-12
NWS Grand JunctionGeared Up for Active Fire WX
Season
wx.gov/gjt