Download - 2012 Wildfire Season Outlook
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2012 Wildfire Season Outlook
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“Recent” Wildfire HistoryWinter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY
followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado
Hayman Fire Coal Seam FireMissionary Ridge FireBig FishNumerous other fires
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2001-02 Versus 2011-12SNOTEL Annual Precip. % as of 5-
10-12 01-02
11-12Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 %Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 %Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73 %Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002
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Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May
10
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SNOTEL Current S.W.E.
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Precipitation % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/1/12
Based on all precipitation reporting sites
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Soil Moisture % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/6/12
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Historical ENSO Influence ?Winter 2001-2002 - NeutralWinter 2011-2012 - La Nina
2nd consecutive La Nina winter
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Historical ENSO Influence ?Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina wintersIn western Colorado...
9 events - 2nd year drier than first
2 events - 2nd year wetter than first
(early 1950s & mid 1970s)Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist
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Drought Assessment 5/8/12
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Drought Assessment – 5/8/12
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May 2012 Climate Outlook
Precipitation
Temperatures
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Early Summer 2012
Precipitation
Temperatures
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Late Summer-Early Fall 2012
Monsoon Season
Precipitation
Temperatures
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Winter 2012-2013 ???
“…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“
Climate Prediction Center 5-3-12
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NWS Grand JunctionGeared Up for Active Fire WX
Season
wx.gov/gjt