2013 06 20 - ebix worth no more than 8, likely a zero

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  • 7/28/2019 2013 06 20 - EBIX WORTH NO MORE THAN 8, LIKELY A ZERO

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    GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC

    EBIX:

    Shares are worth no more than

    $8.00 per share, and likely headed to

    $0.00 per share

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    Disclaimer:

    By reading this report, you agree that use of GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCs (GCR) research is at your

    own risk. In no event will you hold GCR or any affiliated party liable for any direct or indirect trading

    losses caused by any information in this report. This report is not investment advice or a

    recommendation or solicitation to buy any securities. GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC is not registered asan investment advisor in any jurisdiction.

    You agree to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with

    respect to securities covered herein. You represent to GCR that you have sufficient investment

    sophistication to critically assess the information, analysis and opinion in this report. You further agree

    that you will not communicate the contents of this report to any other person unless that person has

    agreed to be bound by these same terms of service.

    You should assume that as of the publication date of this report, GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC stands to

    profit in the event the issuers stock declines. We may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form or

    substance of its position in the issuer. GCR disclaims any obligation to notify the market of any such

    changes.

    Our research and report includes forward-looking statements, estimates, projections, and opinions

    prepared with respect to, among other things, certain accounting, legal, and regulatory issues the issuer

    faces and the potential impact of those issues on its future business, financial condition and results of

    operations, as well as more generally, the issuers anticipated operating performance, access to capital

    markets, market conditions, assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, projections and opinions

    may prove to be substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties

    beyond GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCs control.

    Our research and report expresses our opinions, which we have based upon generally available

    information, field research, inferences and deductions through our due diligence and analytical

    process. GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC believes all information contained herein is accurate and

    reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable.

    However, such information is presented as is, without warranty of any kind, whether express or

    implied. GCR, makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or

    completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All

    expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC is not

    obligated to update or supplement any reports or any of the information, analysis and opinion

    contained in them.

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    GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCa

    Research Note

    Ebix shares are worth no more than $8.00/share Ebixs valuation at 1x revenue is$5.45/share, valuation at 12x normalized earnings (at a 33% tax rate) is $9.72/share, and its

    tangible book value/share is negative. A simple average of these estimates gets you below

    $8.00/share. Note that these incorporate some very generous assumption, given the

    accounting irregularities, regulatory event risk, flat/declining organic growth, tax risk, and

    other risks identified in our prior reports.

    Ebix shares are likely worthless Ebix owes at least $80 million to creditors, has a negative

    net cash position, and potentially owes over $100 million to U.S. taxpayers (in back-taxes,

    penalties, and interest). This doesnt include additional costs related to the SEC investigation

    or class-action lawsuits. Given negative organic growth, its unclear how Ebix will pay its

    creditors & taxpayers. Governments throughout the world are targeting institutions undersuspicion of tax-related malfeasance. Ebix is the worst offenderpar excellence.

    Huge distraction for management Its unclear how Ebixs management can successfully

    navigate its declining operations even as Ebix faces the trifecta of the IRS, SEC, and DOJ. Ebix

    will also have to stop violating Microsofts intellectual property rights, which means

    additional software-related costs going forward.

    A criminal indictment would be unsurprising Many Americans go to jail for allegations far

    less serious than the ones that Ebix, Robin Raina, and related parties face. It would not

    surprise us at all to see a criminal indictment, given Ebixs intentional misconduct.

    Goldman Sachs will likely be vindicated for walking away We applaud Goldman Sachs for

    exercising prudent risk management, and walking away from this deal. We hope that theexecutives at Goldman who played key roles in rejecting this deal will be rewarded.

    Ebix and Robin Raina did not address our core concerns Robin Raina claims that the

    allegations in the class-action suits are without merit. He did not say that the allegations are

    false. Nor did Raina say that Gotham City Researchs allegations are false.

    A CEO who lies about his charitys finances cannot be trusted, period Robin Raina

    foundations tax filings are inaccurate; hes never denied this. You should assume that theres

    something wrong here. Whenever Raina has ignored an allegation, its ended up being true.

    True value investors will stay away from Ebix There is no margin of safety against fraud, as

    famous value investors Benjamin Graham and Seth Klarman have taught. Klarman famously

    warned, Beware of the value pretenders, those who buy stocks because they are down but

    not necessarily cheap.

    Be fearful of what the regulators know We have provided regulators with additional

    information that has yet to be publicly disseminated, and we will likely continue to aid in

    their efforts. Gotham City Research has no obligation to share our additional findings with

    the public. You should assume that its materiality equals, if not exceeds, what weve

    published so far. You should not assume Ebixs cash position is necessarily as they portray.