2013-14 third quarter fiscal update and economic statement
DESCRIPTION
2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - presentation by Doug Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance - February 26, 2014TRANSCRIPT
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2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement
February 26, 2014
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Overview
• Turning the corner – back in the black
Budget 2013 Q1
Q2 Q3
$451 M deficit
$500 M deficit to $250 M surplus
$250 M deficit to $250 M surplus
$1.4 B surplus
Operational Deficit/Surplus – full year
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Overview
• Proceeding with caution - revenues
remain volatile • Turning the corner and continuing down
road set out in budget • Spending taps will not open up • Surplus to cushion future revenue drops
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Economic Strength
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar %
cha
nge
AlbertaCanadaUSA
5.2
3.8 3.3
3.7
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Economic Strength
Growth 2003-2013
13.2%
11.1%
27.6%
26.5%
Employment
PopulationAlberta
Canada
5,700
2,600
Average number of jobs added per month in 2013
Alberta
Rest ofCanada
Monthly employment growth Jan to Dec, 2013
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13
$
WTI WCS
$37 $10
$15
Oil Price Differential
$39
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2013 Flood
$6B natural disaster event Provincial support • $1.2 B commitment for small businesses and
communities • $537 M operating expense and $33 M in capital
spending to December 31
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Booming Population
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Alberta’s Finances
Operational Deficit (Q3 estimate)
Operational Surplus (Q3 actual)
($372 M) $1.2 B
Operational Expense (Q3 estimate)
Operational Expense (Q3 actual)
$28.5 B $29.6 B
Operational Plan
Operational Revenue (Q3 estimate)
Operational Revenue (Q3 actual)
$28.1 B $30.8 B
Net Assets (Budget 2013 estimate )
Net Assets (Q3 revised forecast)
$41.1 B Decrease of $1.97 B
$43.9 B Decrease of $335 M
Operational Borrowing
$0
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Alberta’s Finances
Capital Spending (Q3 estimate)
Capital Spending (Q3 actual)
$ 3.45 B $3.5 B
Debt Servicing
Debt Cap
0.6% 3%
Average Borrowing Cost
Heritage Fund Rate of Return
3.7% 11.6%
Capital Plan
(of operational revenue)
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Alberta’s Finances
Contingency Account (Budget 2013 estimate)
Contingency Account (Revised 2013-14 forecast)
$691 M $4.6 B
Savings Plan
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (Fair Value of Net Assets @ Q3)
$17.3 B
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Stay tuned for Budget 2014 March 6
www.finance.alberta.ca
twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance